789
FXUS63 KMKX 112354
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
654 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MONDAY.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY NIGHT FROM CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN.
- MORE ACTIVE WEATHER POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING, WITH POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR VERY GUSTY WINDS AND
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND, WITH FROST
BECOMING LIKELY.
UPDATE
ISSUED 645 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING. INTERIM MODEL GUIDANCE
FROM 18-21Z CAMS CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT PORTIONS OF CENTRAL,
EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN WI WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER
/ THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT,
MAINLY NORTH OF A WISCONSIN DELLS TO KENOSHA LINE (10-35%
CHANCES). OF COURSE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD BLEED FURTHER
SOUTH OF THIS LINE, BUT THE MAIN THING CAMS ARE PICKING UP ON IS
THE OVERALL CONFLUENCE / ASCENT INTO THE CORE OF THE APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE, WHICH WILL BE REQUIRED TO OVERCOME MODEST CIN.
SHEPPARD
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 244 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT:
CLEAR SKIES AND STEADY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW 60S. LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MONDAY
MORNING, BRINGING GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN.
BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL BE WELL WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW (HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID-80S ALL THE WAY
TO LAKE MICHIGAN), WITH MUCAPE INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG AND
SHEAR AROUND 30 KT. DECENT AMOUNT OF SURFACE CAPPING (CIN OVER
400 J/KG) WILL MEAN THAT ONLY ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE (STILL SOME MUCIN AS WELL, THOUGH GENERALLY LESS THAN
100 J/KG). WITH PLENTY OF CAPPING, BUT FORCING AND INSTABILITY
IN THE VICINITY ALONG WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING, ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN (COVERAGE 15-25%), WITH THE BEST CHANCES TOWARD
CENTRAL WISCONSIN WHERE THE LOW WILL BE APPROACHING. NOT
ANTICIPATING SEVERE WEATHER.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (20-30%) AS THE COLD
FRONT FINISHES UNZIPPING THROUGH EASTERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL EXIT BY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH A COLD FRONT
EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ARE EXPECTED.
MH
LONG TERM
ISSUED 244 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
A COLD FRONT PROGRESSES EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TUESDAY MORNING, BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND A RETURN TO
HIGHS IN THE 70S. A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING,
BUT CHANCES ARE LOW (~10%).
TUESDAY NIGHT, WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY BUT REMAIN LIGHT, WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW 50S. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN PLAINS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS,
BRIEFLY BRINGING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE
WI/IL BORDER ALONG A WAVE OF WARM FRONTOGENESIS BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE QUICKLY PROPAGATES EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY. LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE HIGH CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD
AND LOW PRESSURE EJECTS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD.
AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY,
EXPECT INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS AND WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL FEATURE. A
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROPAGATING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
CANADIAN PRAIRIES LOOKS TO PHASE WITH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S.
BLOCKS EACH SYSTEM FROM PROPAGATING EASTWARD.
EXACT OUTCOME FROM THIS PHASING REMAINS IN QUESTION, ALTHOUGH
MODELING HAS COME INTO AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE PHASING PROCESS, INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS BY FRIDAY AND BRINGING IN A SIGNIFICANTLY
COLDER AIRMASS AS PRECIPITATION EXITS INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 50S THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS, AND LOWS IN THE 30S. WITH MORE INTENSE,
DEEPER SOLUTIONS FOR THE LOW, LOWS IN THE 20S WOULD BECOME
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS FOR A MORE
MIDDLE-GROUND SOLUTION OF A DOUBLE-BARRELLED LOW RATHER THAN A
VERY DEEP SINGLE LOW, MAKING THE 20S POTENTIAL VERY LOW. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AS THE EVENT APPROACHES.
MH
AVIATION
ISSUED 645 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN LLWS OVERNIGHT, WITH
2,000 FT AGL WINDS AROUND 30 TO 40 KT, FASTEST FURTHER NORTH AND
WEST IN OUR REGION. THIS IS INCLUDED IN THE TAFS WHERE
APPLICABLE; FAR SOUTHEASTERN WI (INCLUDING MKE AND ENW) IS
EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE WEAKER SHEAR (BELOW TAF INCLUSION
THRESHOLDS).
LLWS WILL WRAP UP AROUND DAWN MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN
SURFACE WINDS (SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT) INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (15-30% COVERAGE)
EXPECTED FROM CENTRAL WI THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN WI MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. OVERALL STORM CHANCES AND COVERAGE
ARE JUST SHY OF TAF INCLUSION THRESHOLDS, THUS THE TAFS REMAIN
DRY FOR NOW. ADDITIONAL LLWS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT, PERHAPS MORE
WIDESPREAD AND WITH HIGHER INTENSITY.
SHEPPARD
MARINE
ISSUED 244 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
BROAD LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.5 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO
MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THIS
EVENING, SHIFTING TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING INTO MONDAY AS
THIS LOW LIFTS INTO MINNESOTA AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN THROUGH THE
DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. EXPECTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE OPEN
WATERS. WINDS SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS TO
THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.2 INCHES BUILDING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP WINDS NORTHERLY INTO WEDNESDAY,
TURNING NORTHEASTERLY THEN EASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO MOVE EASTWARD. LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.8 INCHES THEN DEEPENS
IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT, TURNING WINDS EASTERLY
ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THURSDAY, KEEPING WINDS EASTERLY. LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO
CROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THURSDAY NIGHT, TURNING WINDS NORTHWESTERLY
AFTER ITS PASSAGE AND BRINGING GALE POTENTIAL.
MH
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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