706
FXUS63 KMKX 130003
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
703 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING, MAINLY NORTH OF A MONTELLO TO MEQUON LINE.
- SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT ALONG THE
WI/IL BORDER.
- RAIN LIKELY (60-80% CHANCES) THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT,
WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES.
- GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND, WITH FROST
LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT, AND POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED 700 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS FORMED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE STATE AS PREDICTED. GENERALLY EXPECTING IT TO REMAIN
ROOTED TO THE 925MB WARM FRONT, ROUGHLY FROM WAUSAU TO GREEN
BAY. MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS A DRY EVENING FOR OUR CWA.
WE CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRAY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPING OVER EAST-CENTRAL WI THIS EVENING, GIVEN THAT THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT SPANS FROM ROUGHLY STEVEN'S POINT TO
SHEBOYGAN AND SOME SYNOPTIC CONFLUENCE / ASCENT SHOULD BE
PRESENT THERE. THAT SAID, IT MAKES SENSE FOR THE TRIGGERING TO
REMAIN ROOTED TO THE LIFTED-PARCEL LEVEL (WHERE THE MUCAPE IS
BASED), WHICH IS WHY THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION HAS STAYED WITH
THE SHARPEST 925MB BAROCLINICITY (FURTHER NORTH).
SHEPPARD
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 233 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT:
LOW PRESSURE PIVOTING INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING WILL
BRING INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
GUSTS 20-25 MPH COMMON ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE FLOW FROM THE
SOUTHWEST, THE LAKE BREEZE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE, ALLOWING FOR
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ALL THE
WAY TO LAKE MICHIGAN. THE RECORD HIGHS FOR BOTH MILWAUKEE AND
MADISON HAVE BEEN BROKEN (PREVIOUS RECORDS 83 DEGREES IN 1995
FOR MILWAUKEE AND 83 DEGREES IN 2008 FOR MADISON), AND ARE
FORECAST TO TOP OUT AROUND 85/86 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.
A FEW AGITATED CUMULUS ARE VISIBLE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
LOW ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN, INDICATING SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT
ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN WISCONSIN (15-30% COVERAGE) AS
THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS
ACTIVITY IS LIGHTNING, AS MUCAPE OF ~1000 J/KG BETWEEN 700 AND
300 MB IS WELL WITHIN THE FREEZING LAYER FOR LIGHTNING
PRODUCTION, BUT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND HAIL
PRODUCTION. A VERY STRONG INVERSION IS SEEN BETWEEN THE SURFACE
AND 850 MB AND WILL PREVENT ANY DAMAGING WINDS OR STRONG STORMS.
PRECIPITATION EXITS INTO THE LATE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT, WITH
THE COLD FRONT ITSELF PROGRESSING THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THEREFORE, EXPECTING OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S, WITH TEMPERATURES RECOVERING INTO THE 70S
TUESDAY AFTERNOON UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS.
CLOUD COVER INCREASES AGAIN TUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTERACTS AND INTENSIFIES
THE FRONTOGENESIS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM A LOW
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN (20-50%), WITH THE BEST CHANCES
(60-70%) NEAR THE WI/IL BORDER. CAM SOLUTIONS ARE INDICATING THE
MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION, WITH MUCAPE ~1000 J/KG BUILDING BACK
INTO THE REGION BETWEEN 850 AND 300 MB (INVERSION BELOW 850 MB). A
WEAK LLJ NOSING INTO FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN INDICATES SUPPORT FOR
THIS SOLUTION, SO HAVE INCREASED POPS ACCORDINGLY. LLJ WEAKENS
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES, ALLOWING FOR AN END TO SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY.
MH
LONG TERM
ISSUED 233 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MIGRATE EASTWARD WEDNESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, KEEPING SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DRY WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S ARE EXPECTED.
AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, TWO SEPARATE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS APPROACH THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE FIRST SYSTEM
EJECTS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION TO
FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL
PROGRESS THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO THURSDAY AFTERNOON, PHASING
WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM AND BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REMAINDER OF WISCONSIN BY
THURSDAY EVENING. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH
MINIMAL INSTABILITY AND MAINLY BROAD FORCING. THESE SYSTEMS
CONTINUE TO INTERACT AND MOVE EASTWARD, PHASING INTO A SINGLE
SYSTEM AND DEEPENING RAPIDLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN ONTARIO FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DEEP ADIABATIC
LAYER ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL (925-700
MB) WINDS TO MIX DOWN AND PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY AFTER PRECIPITATION ENDS.
PRECIPITATION ENDS QUICKLY INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, WITH
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUING TO GUST 30 TO 40 MPH INTO AT LEAST
MIDDAY FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN CANADIAN
PRAIRIES QUICKLY BUILDS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S AS SKIES CLEAR. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING, BECOMING CALM BY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. LOWS IN THE 30S ARE EXPECTED, LEADING TO THE FIRST FROST
AND POTENTIALLY LOCALIZED FREEZE CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE PROPAGATES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT, KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND SOUTHWESTERLY. EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S ONCE AGAIN. AS HIGH PRESSURE
EXITS TO THE EAST, EXPECT GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY, BRINGING A RETURN TO HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE OCCLUDES
IN THE HUDSON BAY, WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURN LEADING TO SHOWER
POTENTIAL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MH
AVIATION
ISSUED 655 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
POTENTIAL LINGERS FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TOWARDS EAST-
CENTRAL WI THIS EVENING, THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. SURFACE
WINDS REMAIN SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 10 KT INTO TONIGHT. LLWS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING THRU ROUGHLY 4 AM TUESDAY, WITH 2,000 FT
AGL WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT UP TO 45 KT, VEERING WEST-
SOUTHWEST. SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR CLOUD CEILINGS, MAINLY OVER
10,000 FT.
AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS EASTWARD FROM CENTRAL WI PREDAWN TUESDAY
MORNING, LLWS ENDS AND SURFACE WINDS VEER WEST AND BECOME GUSTY,
VEERING NORTHWEST AND GRADUALLY DECELERATING THROUGH TUESDAY.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND VFR THROUGH TUESDAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED NEAR THE WI/IL BORDER
TUESDAY NIGHT. PREDOMINANTLY DRY FURTHER NORTH, THOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS / STORMS COULD STRAY TOWARDS THE I-94 CORRIDOR (40%
CHANCE).
SHEPPARD
MARINE
ISSUED 233 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 29.6 INCHES CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, BRINGING INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWESTERLY AS LOW PRESSURE
EXITS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE LAKE. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS TUESDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.3 INCHES BUILDS
TOWARD THE REGION. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS
BECOME NORTHERLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE, THEN
EASTERLY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD.
WINDS WEAKEN INTO THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST THROUGH
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THEN BECOME NORTHWESTERLY GALES THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND INTENSIFIES. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A FEW STORM FORCE GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
MH
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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