119
FXUS63 KMKX 131028
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
528 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING MAINLY ALONG &
SOUTH OF I-94.
- RAIN LIKELY (60-80% CHANCES) THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT,
WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES.
- GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND, WITH FROST
LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT, AND POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED 515 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
LOW PRESSURE IS PROGRESSING FROM NORTHEAST WISCONSIN ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. THE LOW WENT THROUGH A
BRIEF OCCLUSION PROCESS DURING THE EARLIER OVERNIGHT HOURS,
WHICH ALLOWED SURFACE PRESSURE & WIND FIELDS TO STAGNATE FOR
SEVERAL HOURS. SAID STAGNATION KEPT A WARM FRONT PARKED FROM
CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO SHEBOYGAN COUNTY, WITH DECOUPLED WINDS
ALONG/NORTH OF THE FRONT ALLOWING FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT FROM
THE FOX CITIES INTO THE CITY OF SHEBOYGAN. WITH THE SURFACE
PATTERN ONCE MORE BECOMING PROGRESSIVE, THE WARM FRONT HAS
CONTINUED ONWARD/TO THE NORTHEAST, WITH INCREASING
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS SCOURING FOG OUT. HAVE THUS CANCELLED THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR SHEBOYGAN COUNTY.
TIED TO COLD ADVECTION BEHIND A COLD FRONT ENCROACHING FROM THE
WEST, SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ATTEMPT TO WORK IN THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE MORNING HOURS. EXPECTING THESE CLOUDS TO
SCATTER OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
EXPECT THAT THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
WILL BE INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
DISORGANIZED SHORTWAVE FORCING CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM KANSAS
TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL CONCURRENTLY TRANSLATE TOWARD NORTH-
CENTRAL ILLINOIS, WORKING IN TANDEM WITH THE FRONT TO TRIGGER
SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING HOURS.
COULD SEE SOME OF THIS PRECIP LEAK NORTH OF THE STATE LINE
BETWEEN ~7 PM AND MIDNIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED PRECIP PROBABILITIES
FROM LAST EVENING'S UPDATE, AS THEY CONTINUE THE CAPTURE THE
EXPECTED BEST CORRIDOR OF PRECIP POTENTIAL MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-94. WILL BE MONITORING FOR ANY NEEDED CHANGES INTO
TODAY. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN EVENING
SHOWERS, WITH HAZARDS OTHERWISE NOT ANTICIPATED.
QUIGLEY
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1015 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT:
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES EAST FROM NORTHERN LAKE MI EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN WI AND VEERING
WINDS WEST WITH A FEW 20-30 MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE. WINDS VEER
NORTHWEST LATER TUESDAY MORNING THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL ACROSS NORTHERN IL
AND LINGER THERE TUESDAY NIGHT, AND AS A SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ
ANGLES INTO THE EAST-WEST FRONTAL ZONE, SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO FIRE UP ALONG IT. WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING ANY STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS IN SOUTHERN WI AT THIS
TIME, GIVEN THAT ANY CONVECTION NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY (AND IN
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS) WOULD BE VERY ELEVATED AND SOMEWHAT
LIMITED IN INSTABILITY (1,000 JOULES OR LESS), BUT SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER (~60%
CHANCES) AND A FEW COULD DRIFT AS FAR NORTH AS THE HWY 18 AND
I-94 CORRIDOR (35% CHANCE) OR EVEN FURTHER NORTH (25% CHANCE).
SHEPPARD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1015 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY:
HIGH PRESSURE TRACKS EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY,
WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST BREEZE FORCING A STALLED FRONTAL ZONE
ACROSS IL TO SAG FURTHER SOUTH. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES MAY LINGER,
BUT PREDOMINANTLY DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTHERN WI WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
MEANWHILE TWIN UPPER TROUGHS DEEPEN TO OUR WEST. ONE OVER THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL SEED LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS, AND ANOTHER OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA WILL
FORM A CLIPPER SYSTEM. THE GREAT PLAINS LOW WILL FOLLOW THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE INTO IL, WITH RAINFALL FROM THAT
SYSTEM REACHING OUR REGION ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT (60-80% CHANCES). THE LOW SHOULD PASS NEAR THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF LAKE MI THURSDAY EVENING, CONTINUING NORTHEASTWARD
AND GRADUALLY MERGING WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED CLIPPER SYSTEM INTO
FRIDAY. SOME ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY
DURING THE RAINFALL THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT NO STRONG OR
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE LACK OF ENTRY
INTO THE WARM SECTOR. THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE DRAGS A COLD
FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN WI THURSDAY EVENING, TURNING WINDS NORTHWEST
AND GRADUALLY SWEEPING AWAY ANY LINGERING PRECIP LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT.
THE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS (AND THEIR UPPER TROUGHS) SHOULD
PHASE TOGETHER INTO ONE UNIFIED SYSTEM, FURTHER AMPLIFYING THE
WAVE TRAIN OF THE POLAR JET. THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE (NOW
INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY) WILL WORK WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
DESCENDING FROM CANADA INTO THE PLAINS TO FORM A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER WI, WITH STRONG NW WINDS (GUSTING TO 30-40 MPH)
ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IN THESE GUSTY WINDS CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS ECMWF
AND GEFS ENSEMBLES CONVERGE ON THE PHASING / BEHAVIOR OF THIS
SYSTEM.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD INTO WI/IL FRIDAY
NIGHT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO RAPIDLY SUBSIDE LATE FRIDAY, WITH
SKIES CLEARING OUT. AS SUCH, WE HAVE HIGH POTENTIAL FOR FROST
(AND POSSIBLY EVEN A LOCALIZED FREEZE) FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH LOWS IN THE 30S. AFTER A DAYTIME HIGH IN
THE 50S SATURDAY, LOWS RETURN TO THE 30S SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING, THOUGH LIKELY A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
PRIOR NIGHT DUE TO SOME SOUTHERLY WAA AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
EAST FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THEN
ENSUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, RETURNING DAYTIME HIGHS TO THE 60S.
SHEPPARD
AVIATION
ISSUED 515 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
PREDOMINANTLY VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES PREVAIL REGIONWIDE THIS
MORNING, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NEAR KSBM WHERE PREVIOUSLY DENSE
FOG IS DISSIPATING. HAVE MAINTAINED MVFR VIS REDUCTIONS THROUGH
12Z, WITH A RETURN TO VFR ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER. LOW PRESSURE
IS ADVANCING INTO UPPER MICHIGAN FROM NORTHEAST WISCONSIN, WITH
A WEST-NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT ANTICIPATED BY MID-MORNING AT ALL
TERMINALS. TIED TO COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE LOW, COULD SEE A
FEW-SCT DECK BASED BETWEEN FL030 AND FL040 WORK IN BEHIND THE
LOW THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS, WITH ANY CLOUDS EXPECTED TO
SCATTER OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THESE CLOUDS
IN THE UPCOMING 12Z FORECAST, WITH FLIGHT REDUCTIONS NOT
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING, WITH WIND SPEEDS STEADILY DECREASING. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS EVENING,
BRINGING SHRA POTENTIAL TO AREAS MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF I-94.
HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR THIS POTENTIAL WITH A COMBINATION OF PROB30
OR PREVAILING GROUPS BASED ON RELATIVE CONFIDENCE AT EACH
TERMINAL. SOME RECENT FORECAST GUIDANCE HINTS THAT POTENTIAL
COULD BLEED FURTHER NORTH TOWARD THE SBM VICINITY, BUT HAVE
WITHHELD ANY MENTIONS AT THIS TIME GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
THIS SCENARIO. WILL MONITOR TRENDS INTO TODAY.
QUIGLEY
MARINE
ISSUED 1015 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
OPEN WATERS / SYNOPSIS:
LOW PRESSURE AROUND 26.6 INCHES OVER CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT, CROSSING THE NORTHERN HALF OF LAKE
MICHIGAN. AS THIS OCCURS, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE, WITH BREEZY EAST WINDS OVER
THE NORTHERN TIP OF THE LAKE AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF. WINDS TURN WEST/NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WHOLE LAKE
INTO TUESDAY AND REMAIN BREEZY AS THE LOW DEPARTS EAST. LIGHT
NORTH WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. WINDS REMAIN
NORTHERLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE, THEN
EASTERLY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD.
WINDS WEAKEN INTO THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST THROUGH
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THEN BECOME NORTHWESTERLY GALES LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND INTENSIFIES. A FEW STORM FORCE GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY.
NEARSHORE ZONES:
WINDS GUSTS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL VEER FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION.
STEADY ONSHORE WINDS COULD BUILD WAVES TO NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS
AT TIMES FROM MIDDAY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS (WELL OVER ADVISORY THRESHOLDS) ARE LIKELY
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING, WITH HIGH POTENTIAL
FOR GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE DAYTIME HOURS OF FRIDAY.
SHEPPARD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ643 UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY.
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