047
FXUS63 KMKX 141050
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
550 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED (70-90% CHANCES) THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT, WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE.
- NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 45 MPH FRIDAY, WITH HIGHER
GUSTS AND GALE FORCE CONDITIONS LIKELY OVER LAKE MICHIGAN.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH A
ROUND OF FROST POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT.
UPDATE
ISSUED 555 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
FORECAST IS ON TRACK THIS MORNING, WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER
HOLDING TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY. EXPECT THAT THESE CLOUDS
WILL HANG ON THROUGH THE ENTIRETY OF TODAY, KEEPING TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW TO MID-60S.
QUIGLEY
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1245 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN FROM NORTH CENTRAL US INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT PRECIP FROM
THIS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WINDS OFF THE LAKE WILL LIKELY
YIELD LOW STRATUS MUCH OF THE DAY THUS THE TEMPERATURE
EXPECTATIONS HAVE BEEN LOWERED FOR WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY CLOSER
TO THE LAKE.
THE HIGH WILL PUSH OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RIDGING ALSO SLIDING
OUT AS A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY WILL SWING IN
WITH MOISTURE FROM THE GULF. IN ADDITION THE SURFACE WILL
FEATURE A FAIRLY DYNAMIC SITUATION WITH A LOW TO THE NORTH
SWINGING SOUTH AND A LOW TO THE SOUTH SWINGING NORTH AND MERGING
INTO A STRONGER LOW. THIS WILL BRING A VERY DEEP MOISTURE SETUP
INTO THURSDAY WITH PLENTY OF FORCING IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS
FOR WHICH WE SHOULD EXPECT PLENTY OF RAIN. PWATS WILL NOT BE
ANYTHING CRAZY (~1.5 IN), BUT A PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD RAIN IS
EXPECT FROM LATER THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
TIMING STILL HAS A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY BUT, IN GENERAL, A
STRAIGHTFORWARD, STRATIFORM, RAINY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH NO
EXPECTATION OF LIGHTNING AT THIS TIME. THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH OUT BY THE LATE NIGHT HOURS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IMPINGES ON THE LOW TO THE
EAST.
KUROSKI
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1245 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR FRIDAY WILL BE THE WIND AS A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE NUDGES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW AND BRING A FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE EXPECTED TO APPROACH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA, PRIMARILY NEAR THE SHORELINE AREAS, WHERE NNW WIND
GUSTS MAY APPROACH 45-50MPH. IN ADDITION, COOLER CONDITIONS MAY
MAKE FOR A BIT OF A WIND CHILL, RELATIVE TO THE TEMPERATURES,
PRIMARILY FRIDAY MORNING WHEN APPARENT TEMPERATURES MAY REACH
THE MID 30S.
WINDS WILL LIGHTEN BACK UP AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD INTO
SATURDAY BUT THE RAPID DEPARTURE OF THE HIGH AND IMPINGING LOW
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL BRING BACK BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SINCE THIS FRONT AND THE
ASSOCIATED LOW WILL SWING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO THE POINT OF DISSIPATION AND LIGHTER WINDS
WILL RETURN A HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
MONDAY. UNCERTAINTY DEFINITELY INCREASES EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK
BUT THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR DRIER WEATHER UNTIL AT LEAST
MIDWEEK.
KUROSKI
AVIATION
ISSUED 555 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
FOLLOWING TRANSIENT POCKETS OF VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES THROUGH
SUNRISE, EXPECTING A RETURN OF PREVAILING MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES
THROUGH EARLY TO MID MORNING. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY RISE FROM LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, WHEN A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST AT ALL TERMINALS. BKN CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT, WITH CIGS FALLING ONCE MORE NEAR AND
AFTER MIDNIGHT, WHEN AT LEAST MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL RETURN
AT ALL FIELDS. THE NEXT DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THURSDAY
MORNING, BRINGING WIDESPREAD RA TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE INSERTED A PROB30 RA GROUP NEARING THE
END OF THE 30 HOUR PERIOD AT MKE GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL, WITH
ADDITIONAL MENTIONS BECOMING NECESSARY AT ALL TERMINALS IN LATER
UPDATES.
QUIGLEY
MARINE
ISSUED 1245 AM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
NORTH WINDS FOR MOST OF THE LAKE TONIGHT BETWEEN A DEPARTING
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND AN APPROACHING
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.3 INCHES. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO
20 KNOTS BY THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN AS THE HIGH MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT TO THE
SOUTH. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME EASTERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EASTWARD, WITH THE STRONGER
WINDS REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE. THEN TWO
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE PROGGED TO MERGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION INTO A SINGLE LOW PRESSURE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
THIS LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO DEEPEN TO AROUND 29.5 INCHES AS IT
SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATER THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE AND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE AND BEHIND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.7 INCHES IMPINGES ON
THE DEPARTING LOW. THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF
GALES, WITH A FEW GUSTS POTENTIALLY APPROACHING STORM FORCE FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR BOTH THE NEARSHORE AND OPEN WATERS FRIDAY MORNING
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
KUROSKI
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...7 PM WEDNESDAY
TO 4 PM THURSDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...10 AM FRIDAY TO 10
PM FRIDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643...7 AM THURSDAY TO 4 PM THURSDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-
LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ868-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...4 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM
SATURDAY.
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