259
FXUS63 KMKX 151147
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
647 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN WI LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE.
- INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 30-40 MPH FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKESHORE, WITH HIGHER GALE FORCE
CONDITIONS LIKELY OVER LAKE MICHIGAN.
- COLDER END TO THE WEEK WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS TRENDING TO AROUND
FREEZING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED 645 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
FORECAST REMAINS MOSTLY ON TRACK EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH A
STEADY PERIOD OF RAIN SET TO BEGIN WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
TIED TO A WEAK AREA OF BAROCLINICITY & OVERRUNNING FLOW IN THE
925-850 MB LAYER, AN AREA OF RAIN HAS DEVELOPED FROM
PLATTEVILLE-DUBUQUE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS.
EXPECTATION IS FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS (~NOW-10 AM). BEGINNING TIME OF
TODAY'S WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS THUS SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF SCHEDULE.
HAVE MODIFIED NEAR-TERM PRECIP PROBABILITIES TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS DEVELOPMENT, WITH THE MAIN CHANGE BEING TO PULL 80%+ PRECIP
PROBABILITIES INTO AREAS 1-3 HOURS EARLIER THAN INITIALLY
FORECAST.
ANTICIPATING THAT THE RADAR WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN NEAR-TERM
BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF RAIN, AS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING NORTHEAST INTO IOWA FROM THE
MISSOURI VALLEY. EXPECT THE FILLING IN PRECIP TO RIDE INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON (~11 AM-2 PM) ALONG
WITH ITS PARENT SHORTWAVE FORCING.
LARGER SCALE SYNOPTICS WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE
INFLUENTIAL IN LATER AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING (~3 PM-8 PM)
RAINFALL, AS UPPER TROUGHS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO & ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA-CANADIAN BORDER INTERACT &
ATTEMPT TO PHASE WITH ONE ANOTHER OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. SAID PHASING WILL RESULT IN SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS FROM
THE WISCONSIN-ILLINOIS BORDER INTO THE LOWER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN, WITH THE BUDDING SURFACE LOW & PVA ALOFT MAINTAINING
AREAS OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. COULD SEE SOME BANDED RAINFALL
DURING THIS TIME FRAME, PARTICULARLY ALONG ANY PERSISTENT ZONES
OF FRONTOGENESIS MATERIALIZING NEAR/NORTH OF THE LOW. WOULD HAVE
THE POTENTIAL OF SEEING SOME LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS IN
THE 1-2"+ RANGE WITHIN ANY BANDING, WITH LIGHTER TOTALS
GENERALLY IN THE 0.5-1" RANGE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. COULD SEE SOME
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS BY EARLY EVENING, WITH MORE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IMPACTS NOT ANTICIPATED. EXPECTING RAIN
COVERAGE TO DECREASE CONSIDERABLY FROM 8 PM ONWARD AS DRY MID-
LEVEL AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.
QUIGLEY
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1222 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY:
THE SATELLITE IS SHOWING WIDESPREAD LOWER CLOUDS ACROSS MOST OF
SOUTHERN WI, WITH POTENTIALLY A FEW HOLES ALONG THE LAKESHORE AT
TIMES. WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE NORTHEAST/EAST FLOW
PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT, EXPECT THE LOW CLOUDS TO REMAIN
IN PLACE AS WELL. THE CLOUDS AND STEADY BREEZE WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN CHECK TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH LOWS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50.
A PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL RIDE UP INTO SOUTHERN WI ON A STIFF LOW
LEVEL JET TODAY. THIS IS COINCIDENT WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A STRONG UPPER JET AND A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
MEANWHILE A STRONGER MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA
WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE DAKOTAS AND SLIDE INTO MN THIS EVENING.
THIS WILL HELP WITH CYCLOGENESIS OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING
FROM MO TO LOWER MI.
WE CAN EXPECT RAIN TO SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN WI MID TO LATE
MORNING. IT WILL BE FAIRLY STEADY ON BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS.
WHILE A COUPLE LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE NOT IMPOSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE 850MB WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHERN WI, LIGHTNING
IS NOT LIKELY DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY. MOST OF THE PRECIP
WILL FALL THIS AFTERNOON WITH A 60% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING A HALF
INCH WITHIN THOSE 6 HOURS (HREF AND REFS PROBS). THE RAIN WILL
BECOME LIGHTER AND MORE SHOWERY AFTER THE LOW PASSES AND WINDS
BECOME WESTERLY AFTER THE LOW EXITS THIS EVENING. WE WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN THE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH EARLY FRIDAY
DUE TO THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION, CYCLOGENESIS AND PRESSURE
GRADIENT.
BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALL DAY FRIDAY. THE PEAK
GUSTS SHOULD BE LATER IN THE DAY AND INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS THE
STRONG AND AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD. THE 850MB
TEMPS WILL DIVE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO DURING THIS
TIME. THEN NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRIDAY
EVENING. THERE SHOULD BE A WEAK ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT AS HIGH
PRESSURE NOSES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WI FRIDAY NIGHT TO ALLOW FOR
DECOUPLING AND THEREFORE A SHARP DROP IN TEMPERATURES. THE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO BE AT OR BELOW FREEZING BY EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
CRONCE
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1222 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY RECOVER ON SATURDAY AS THE LOW EXITS
AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE MIDWEST. YET ANOTHER
SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP OUR
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHT OVER WI ON SAT, SO EXPECT BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS (BUT ONLY TO AROUND 20 MPH) AND HIGHS RECOVERING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
SUNDAY AND HIGHS SHOULD MANAGE TO REACH 60.
THE WARM-UP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS WE LARGELY REMAIN
IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S, BUT GET UP TO
AROUND 70 BY LATER IN THE WEEK.
THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN LARGELY DRY FROM SATURDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THERE IS ONE WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT COLD BRING A PERIOD
OF CLOUDS AND A FEW SPRINKLES ON MONDAY.
CRONCE
AVIATION
ISSUED 645 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES ARE SETTLING OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF A PAIR OF UPPER DISTURBANCES EXTENDING FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. EXPECT FLIGHT
CATEGORIES TO CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON,
WITH PREVAILING IFR FORECAST AT ALL TERMINALS BY 18Z. WIDESPREAD
RA WILL MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING MID-LATE MORNING, WITH
STEADY ACTIVITY CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. RA WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY VIS REDUCTIONS AND STEADILY DECREASING CIGS.
COMBINATION OF FALLING VIS AND CIG READINGS WILL LEAD TO LIFR
CONDITIONS BY EARLY EVENING AT ALL AERODROMES.
ANTICIPATING THAT PRECIPITATION WILL SHUT DOWN DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE EVENING HOURS AS A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WORKS
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FROM THE GREAT PLAINS. EXPECTING
AFFILIATED DRY AIR INFLUENCES TO ALLOW FOR A RETURN OF IFR
FLIGHT CATEGORIES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
IF SUFFICIENT AMOUNTS OF DRIER AIR CAN MIX INTO LOWER PORTIONS
OF THE COLUMN, COULD EVEN SEE MVFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES RETURN
PRIOR TO THE CONCLUSION OF THE 24 HOUR PERIOD. HAVE HELD
CONDITIONS AT IFR THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
THE DRIER SCENARIO MATERIALIZING, BUT WILL BE MONITORING TRENDS
THROUGH TODAY. ADDITIONAL LIGHTER AND MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING, WITH POTENTIAL BEING ACCOUNTED FOR
WITH A PROB30 GROUP AT THE END OF THE 30 HOUR PERIOD AT MKE.
WILL BE EVALUATING THE NEED FOR MENTIONS AT 24 HOUR FIELDS IN
LATER FORECASTS.
QUIGLEY
MARINE
ISSUED 1222 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME EASTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO LATE MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.3 INCHES SLIDES THROUGH THE REGION.
THE STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
LAKE DURING THIS TIME. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN TO AROUND 29.5
INCHES AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATER TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT A NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT TO RAMP UP AND
INCREASE TO GALES AND NEARING STORM FORCE AT TIMES FRIDAY, ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WHILE A STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE AROUND 30.7 INCHES BUILDS TO THE WEST. THUS WILL
MAINTAIN A GALE WATCH FOR ALL THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN
FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
AS THE HIGH SINKS TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY, STRONG LOW
PRESSURE AROUND 29.1 INCHES WILL DEVELOP IN NORTHERN MANITOBA. THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY BRING SOUTHWEST GALES TO LAKE
MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY.
CRONCE
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643 UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...10 AM FRIDAY TO
10 PM FRIDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 10 AM FRIDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-
LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...10 AM FRIDAY
TO 1 AM SATURDAY.
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/MILWAUKEE
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, X, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
WWW.X.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page