337
FXUS63 KMKX 160120 AAA
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
820 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 30-40 MPH FRIDAY
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAKESHORE, WITH HIGHER GALE FORCE
CONDITIONS LIKELY OVER LAKE MICHIGAN.
- A WATERSPOUT OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
- COLDER END TO THE WEEK WITH OVERNIGHT TEMPS TRENDING TO AROUND
OR BELOW FREEZING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
UPDATE
ISSUED 820 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
THE MAIN ROUND OF RAIN JUST EXITED SOUTHEAST WI. SOME LIGHT
SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EVENING (AND FRIDAY), BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN IS DONE.
AFTER A LULL IN THE WINDS THROUGH LATE EVENING, GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS (GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH) WILL DEVELOP.
CRONCE
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 201 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT:
WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING, AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE CLIPS THE SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF A STRONG
APPROACHING TROUGH. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA WILL WIND UP WITH THE HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS
GIVEN THE LOW TRACK, WITH UPSTREAM RADAR ADDING CONFIDENCE TO
THIS SCENARIO.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOWER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS AWAY, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
THEN EXPECTED BY MID-FRIDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
THE STRONG TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. BLUSTERY NORTH WINDS ARE
EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE TROUGH. GUSTS TO 30
KNOTS ARE LIKELY, WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS POSSIBLE TOWARDS
LAKE MICHIGAN. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL, ONLY RISING TO ABOUT 50 BY THE AFTERNOON.
DECREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO
DROP QUITE A BIT, AS THE COLDER AIRMASS BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY
DROP BELOW 30 ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AWAY FROM
LAKE MICHIGAN. A FREEZE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. AT
THE VERY MINIMUM, MOST (IF NOT ALL) LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY SEE A ROUND OF FROST.
DDV
LONG TERM
ISSUED 201 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LARGELY BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS THUS LIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY WARM OVER THE SPAN OF THESE FEW
DAYS, AS SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS DEVELOP WHILE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING NUDGES INTO THE AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE LIKELY BY
MID-WEEK.
DDV
AVIATION
ISSUED 820 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
THE LIFR CEILINGS WITH BASES AROUND 400 FT AGL ARE PRETTY
WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN WI THIS EVENING. THE STEADIER RAIN
JUST MOVED OUT OF SOUTHEAST WI. WE CAN EXPECT DRIZZLE AND LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND
INTO FRIDAY, BUT CEILINGS SHOULD BE IN THE IFR CATEGORY. WE ARE
IN A LULL WITH THE WINDS RIGHT NOW, BUT WINDS WILL QUICKLY
INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AROUND MIDNIGHT.
BLUSTERY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY,
WITH AN UPTICK IN THE GUSTS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. LOOK FOR CEILINGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
CRONCE
MARINE
ISSUED 201 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE PROGGED TO MERGE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION INTO A SINGLE LOW PRESSURE LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT
AND DEEPEN TO AROUND 29.4 INCHES AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT TO
RAMP UP AND INCREASE TO GALES AND NEARING STORM FORCE AT TIMES
FRIDAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WHILE A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.7 INCHES BUILDS TO THE WEST. A
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE OPEN WATERS OF
LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN OPEN WATERS. LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS & A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY
ALONG THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. A FEW WATERSPOUTS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FRIDAY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, PARTICULARLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
AS THE HIGH SINKS TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY, STRONG LOW
PRESSURE AROUND 29.0 INCHES WILL DEVELOP IN NORTHERN MANITOBA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY BRING
SOUTHWEST GALES TO LAKE MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY.
DDV
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...FREEZE WATCH...WIZ046-WIZ047-WIZ051-WIZ052-WIZ056-WIZ057-
WIZ058-WIZ059-WIZ062-WIZ063-WIZ064-WIZ065-WIZ067-WIZ068-
WIZ069-WIZ070...1 AM SATURDAY TO 9 AM SATURDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-
LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...10 AM FRIDAY
TO 1 AM SATURDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646...10 AM FRIDAY TO
10 PM FRIDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 UNTIL 10 AM
FRIDAY.
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