063
FXUS63 KMKX 211837
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
137 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT & THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES & RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK TOWARD NORMAL NEXT WEEK, WITH
CHANCES FOR RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 140 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT:
SYNOPSIS/MESOANALYSIS: HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ALONG THE NORTH
DAKOTA-MANITOBA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
FROM QUEBEC TOWARD THE NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR VICINITY. POSITIONING
OF THE FEATURES IS ALLOWING FOR LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES TO
BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE, THE BREEZES ARE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB QUICKLY
TOWARD THE 70 DEGREE MARK AS OF THE 1 PM CDT HOUR. ANTICIPATE THAT
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW-MID 70S BY MID-AFTERNOON
UNDER PERSISTING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
BUILD INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY TONIGHT, ALLOWING THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BROADEN IN SIZE. EXPANSION OF THE HIGH WILL
WIDDLE AWAY AT THE LEADING COLD FRONT, WITH ONLY A NON-BAROCLINIC,
NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT LEFT BY DAYBREAK. THE WIND SHIFT WILL WORK
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
PROXIMITY OF THE HIGH & AFFILIATED LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL SUPPORT
PERIODS OF FOG POTENTIAL BOTH TONIGHT & THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY RETURN AS THE HIGH DEPARTS EAST ON
FRIDAY, MAINTAINING ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND.
TONIGHT: WILL BE MONITORING FOR AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EXTENT---AS WELL AS
DENSITY---OF ANY FOG WILL BE HIGHLY SENSITIVE TO LOW LEVEL WIND
SPEEDS, WHICH REMAIN UNCERTAIN GIVEN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN'S
POSITIONING ON THE SOUTHEAST FLANK OF THE BUILDING HIGH & WITHIN THE
AFFILIATED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. IF FULL DECOUPLING OF THE
BOUNDARY LAYER CAN OCCUR, DEEPER MOISTURE RETURNS ARRIVING ON THE
HEELS OF THIS AFTERNOON'S SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS COULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF
SOME DENSE FOG. WILL BE MONITORING VISIBILITY TRENDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS & ISSUING ANY HEADLINES SHOULD CONDITIONS WARRANT.
SLOW DOWN, USE LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS, AND ALLOW FOR EXTRA FOLLOWING
DISTANCE IF ENCOUNTERING FOG ON THE ROADS.
THURSDAY EVENING & NIGHT: WILL BE WATCHING FOR ADDITIONAL, MORE
ADVECTION-BASED FOG AS PASSING HIGH PRESSURE & AFFILIATED EAST-
NORTHEAST FLOW DRAW A MARINE AIR MASS INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN.
SIMILAR TO TONIGHT, IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO TELL IF ANY FOG COULD BE
DENSE. WILL BE MONITORING TRENDS OVER COMING FORECAST UPDATES.
QUIGLEY
LONG TERM
ISSUED 140 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
SYNOPSIS: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY AS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT DRIFTS INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. WITH FRONTAL FORCING REMAINING WELL-REMOVED FROM THE
REGION, DRY CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE WARM
TEMPERATURES. MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK, GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR 1) AN UPPER SHORTWAVE PASSAGE DURING THE
MONDAY-TUESDAY TIMEFRAME AND 2) THE ARRIVAL OF A LARGER-SCALE UPPER
TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONTAL PUSH BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK/CONCLUSION
OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. NORTHERLY SURFACE MASS RESPONSES AFFILIATED
WITH THE EARLY WEEK SHORTWAVE WILL HELP SHOVE THE SUNDAY COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON MONDAY, BRINGING MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. RAIN
CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST DURING THE PASSAGE OF BOTH
PERTURBATIONS, WITH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY CURRENTLY FAVORED FOR THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES APPEAR LOW AT THIS TIME.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: HAVE LARGELY MAINTAINED AN NBM FORECAST
THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE PERIOD GIVEN ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT
REGARDING SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLUTION. SAID FORECAST PULLS HIGH
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MID-50S TO LOW-60S, IN ADDITION TO
BRINGING CHANCE (~25-40%) PRECIP PROBABILITIES TO THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BARRING CHANGES IN CONSISTENCY
ACROSS THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SUITE, WOULD ANTICIPATE GENERAL STABILITY
IN THIS FORECAST INTO THIS WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY
POSSIBLE CHANGES OVER COMING UPDATES.
QUIGLEY
AVIATION
ISSUED 140 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
PREDOMINANTLY VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT
ALL TERMINALS. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL TREND CALM TO VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, WITH CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY ANY
MENTIONS AT THIS TIME. WILL BE MONITORING VISIBILITY TRENDS INTO
TONIGHT AND MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST WHERE NECESSARY. SKIES
WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS BASED NEAR OR BELOW FL050 MAY MATERIALIZE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH MENTIONS ADDED NEAR THE END OF THE 30 HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD AT MKE IN THE 18Z UPDATE. WILL EVALUATE POSSIBLE MENTIONS IN
THE VICINITY OF SBM AHEAD OF THE UPCOMING 00Z FORECAST. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION IN LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS, THOUGH VIS
REDUCTIONS CAN'T BE RULED OUT. SHOULD CONFIDENCE IN VIS REDUCTIONS
INCREASE, MENTIONS WILL BE INSERTED IN LATER FORECASTS.
QUIGLEY
MARINE
ISSUED 140 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
A RIDGE OF 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER INTO ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON, RESULTING IN LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS. WINDS WILL TREND OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE RIDGE NUDGES
EAST TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER AND QUEBEC. AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
WHETHER ANY FOG BECOMES DENSE REMAINS UNCERTAIN, WITH VISIBILITY AND
SATELLITE TRENDS BEING CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGH THIS PART OF THE
PERIOD. PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS AND 1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. WINDS COULD BE BREEZY AT TIMES, THOUGH WIDESPREAD
GALES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE INCREASES THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PASSING FRONT.
AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IN NEARSHORE
ZONES. WHETHER ANY FOG WILL BECOME DENSE REMAINS UNCERTAIN, WITH
TRENDS BEING MONITORED INTO TOMORROW. PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WIND GUSTS AND WAVES ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT, PARTICULARLY FROM MILWAUKEE AND POINTS
NORTH. WILL BE MONITORING TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE HEADLINES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL TREND NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH PERIODS OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WAVES POSSIBLE
TUESDAY.
QUIGLEY
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
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