795
FXUS63 KMKX 221933
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
233 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY DEVELOP AND/OR MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA WOULD BE MOST AFFECTED. DENSE FOG IS
POSSIBLE AS WELL.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES TRENDING COOLER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS. THERE ARE SOME CHANCES (20 TO 30 PERCENT)
FOR SHOWERS FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 233 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT:
THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE LOW STRATUS AND FOG DECK THAT MAY
SHIFT SOUTH SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA INTO
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THE CURRENT LOW STRATUS DECK WITH
SOME LIGHT FOG IS LINGERING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO NORTHEAST WISCONSIN, AND HUGGING THE SHORELINE
SOUTHWARD AT SHEBOYGAN AND PORT WASHINGTON. THIS AREA HAS MIXED
OUT SOMEWHAT WITH DAYTIME HEATING OVER FAR NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN AND EASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING.
HOWEVER, THINK THAT THE MORE SOLID AREA OF LOW STRATUS AND
LIGHT FOG OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
LAKE MICHIGAN PROBABLY WILL HOLD ON INTO TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS AREA SHIFTING SOUTH
SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY NEAR
LAKE MICHIGAN, INTO THIS EVENING AND LINGERING INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. GIVEN THAT HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST WILL CONTINUE
TO BRING LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS, MOISTURE OFF OF THE LAKE MAY
HELP TO SOLIDIFY THIS AREA OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG.
DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE AS WELL INTO FRIDAY MORNING, GIVEN THE
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS POSSIBLY SINKING TOWARD THE
GROUND UNDER THE INVERSION. FOR NOW, WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN
THESE LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND FOG INTO EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA
INTO THIS EVENING AND LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LATER SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE LOW STRATUS DECK AND
VISIBILITY DROPS IN CASE ANY DENSE FOG ADVISORIES ARE NEEDED.
ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MIX OUT LATER FRIDAY MORNING,
ANOTHER MILD AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY, WITH MIDDLE TO
HIGH CLOUDS GRADUALLY MOVING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWS
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 40S SOUTHEAST TO
LOWER 50S NORTHWEST. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S INLAND, WITH UPPER 60S CLOSER TO THE LAKE WITH
ONSHORE FLOW.
WOOD
LONG TERM
ISSUED 233 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
500 MB CLUSTER ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW AN ANOMALOUS RIDGE
AXIS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EASTWARD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL
ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE, SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HIGHS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S EACH DAY, WITH A SOUTHEAST LAKE BREEZE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE LAKE. ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE
SUPPORTIVE OF THESE VALUES AND THE ENSEMBLE SPREADS ARE VERY
SMALL, INDICATING HIGHER CONFIDENCE.
MODELS THEN SHOW A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTING SOUTHEAST TOWARD
OR THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY, WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT MAY NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, SO ANY
SHOWER CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL (UNDER 15 PERCENT) AT THIS TIME.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME CLOUDS THAT OCCUR DURING THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL OFF MONDAY WITH THE NORTHEAST WINDS,
WITH HIGHS MORE SEASONABLE VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE
60S.
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE RATHER MIXED FOR SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH
NEXT WEEK, AS THERE IS DISAGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. KEPT NBM
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR NOW (20 TO 30 PERCENT) FOR WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY, UNTIL MORE CLARITY CAN BE FOUND. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES.
WOOD
AVIATION
ISSUED 233 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
THE CURRENT LOW CLOUD DECK WITH SOME LIGHT FOG IS LINGERING
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN, AND HUGGING THE SHORELINE SOUTHWARD TOWARD SHEBOYGAN
AND PORT WASHINGTON. A MORE SOLID AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AROUND 300
TO 500 FEET AGL AND LIGHT FOG OF 1 TO 4 MILES MAY SHIFT SOUTH
SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY FOR
TERMINALS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN, INTO THIS EVENING AND LINGERING
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. GIVEN THAT HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS, MOISTURE
OFF OF THE LAKE MAY HELP TO SOLIDIFY THIS AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG.
DENSE FOG DOWN TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS IS POSSIBLE AS WELL
INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR TERMINALS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN, GIVEN THE
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLY SINKING TOWARD THE GROUND.
FOR NOW, WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN THESE LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT
FOG INTO TERMINALS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN INTO THIS EVENING AND
LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THE LOW CLOUDS AND VISIBILITY TRENDS FOR ANY
DENSE FOG.
ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MIX OUT LATER FRIDAY MORNING,
ANOTHER MILD AND DRY DAY IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY, WITH MIDDLE TO
HIGH CLOUDS GRADUALLY MOVING INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY ON FRIDAY, WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS FOR
TERMINALS NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. LIGHT WINDS WILL BE SOUTH
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT.
WOOD
MARINE
ISSUED 233 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS NORTH OF PORT WASHINGTON, FOR A LOW
CLOUD AND FOG DECK. IT MAY MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THIS
EVENING, SO EXPANSION OF THE FOG AND DENSE FOG ADVISORY
SOUTHWARD MAY OCCUR.
THE FOG HAS BECOME A LOW CLOUD DECK OVER THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AREA MAY BECOME MORE FOG ONCE
AGAIN INTO THIS EVENING, WITH SOME DENSE FOG POSSIBLE. IT MAY
ALSO SPREAD SOUTHWARD AND LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING. FOG MAY
DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE AS WELL TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING, WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE.
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND 30.3 INCHES WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH FRIDAY, WHILE STRENGTHENING TO AROUND 30.5 INCHES OVER
SOUTHERN QUEBEC. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT,
INCREASING A BIT OUT OF THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY BEHIND THE
STRENGTHENING HIGH. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE EAST AND A COLD
FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY.
WINDS AND WAVES MAY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS SATURDAY
FOR AREAS NORTH OF PORT WASHINGTON, AND FOR ALL OF THE NEARSHORE
WATERS LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE.
WOOD
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY...LMZ643 UNTIL 10 PM THURSDAY.
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/MILWAUKEE
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, X, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
WWW.X.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page