973
FXUS63 KMKX 251141
AFDMKX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
641 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES & MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TODAY.
- TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL EARLY WEEK, TRENDING BACK ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED 640 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
ONE FINAL WARM DAY IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
SETTLES OVER SRN WI AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT FOR TNT.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES FOR THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLIDE ACROSS SRN CANADA AND THE NRN GREAT LAKES FOR MON-MON
NT WITH COOL ENELY FLOW OVER SRN WI.
GEHRING
SHORT TERM
ISSUED 1131 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT:
WELL ITS A GOOD THING ITS SPOOKY SEASON, WE ALL GOT A BIT OF A
TRICK TONIGHT INSTEAD OF TREATS. THAT IS UNLESS YOU FIND THE
ISOLATED DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES TO BE A TREAT. DESPITE THE DRY LOW
TO MID LEVELS, THE PVA ALOFT IS JUST ENOUGH TO GET SOME SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP. THE ENVIRONMENT IS SQUEEZING OUT WHATEVER MOISTURE
IT CAN THIS EVENING OUT AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRONT WHICH IS
STILL TO OUR NORTHWEST. WHICH IS JUST ENOUGH TO GET SOME
DRIZZLE/SPRINKLES TO MAKE IT TO THE GROUND. LOW CHANCE POPS WERE
ADDED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THESE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST. NOT
EVERYONE WILL SEE THIS LIGHT RAIN, BUT IF YOU DO IT SHOULD BE
VERY SHORT LIVED. ONCE THESE SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN, DRY WEATHER SHOULD RETURN TO THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW DOWN TONIGHT
AS IT MOVED SOUTHEAST DOWN THE STATE. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
SLOWING AS THE ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE HUDSON
BAY STARTS TO OCCLUDE. THIS COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
PASS THROUGH SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE CONSIDERING THAT
MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA AND THE
LIFT ALONG THE FRONT IS FAIRLY WEAK. SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SUNDAY
WHICH WILL RESULT IN WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S.
PATTERSON
LONG TERM
ISSUED 1131 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY:
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT
COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S. HEADING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
THERE WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT STARTS IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ADVANCES EAST INTO THE ROCKIES BEFORE PULLING
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE HUDSON BAY. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE ROCKIES A SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON THE LEE
SIDE AND FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATH. AS THIS TROUGH AND EVENTUAL SFC
LOW MOVES EAST NORTHEAST, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN TO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE
TEMPERATURES BACK UP IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. DESPITE
WARMING TEMPERATURES THE BETTER MOISTURE RETURN AND LIFT LOOKS
TO REMAIN JUST TO THE NORTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN, WHICH KEEPS POPS AROUND 5% OF LESS. UNLESS WE SEE THE
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW SHIFT FURTHER EAST OR SOUTH WITH TIME ITS
LIKELY THAT SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL MID WEEK
(ROUGHLY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT).
AS THE SFC LOW MOVES TOWARD THE HUDSON BAY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST DOWN
THE STATE. THE COLD FRONT IS SHOULD BE A BIT ON THE WEAKER SIDE,
BUT GUIDANCE IS SHOWING BETTER AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THE SFC
LOW SHOULD HAVE OCCLUDED BY THIS POINT SO LIFT AND FRONTOGENESIS
WILL BE OUR LIMITING FACTOR, BUT OVERALL THERE IS GROWING
CONFIDENCE ON LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE TIMING OF
THE RAIN SHOULD TIGHTEN UP WITH TIME IF THIS TREND CONTINUES.
BEYOND THIS POINT AND LOOKING AHEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOES LOOK TO SIGNAL A
PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION. GUIDANCE SIGNALS
THAT THE RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN PARKED OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS WILL START TO MOVE AND BREAK DOWN, THIS WILL GIVE
US MORE CHANCES FOR RAIN HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
PATTERSON
AVIATION
ISSUED 640 AM CDT SUN OCT 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH ONLY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED. A BAND OF MVFR CIGS WILL THEN DEVELOP BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT ACROSS ERN WI FROM LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH 14Z MON.
GEHRING
MARINE
ISSUED 1131 PM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LAKE TONIGHT WITH A FEW
ISOLATED GALES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. WINDS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS THEY BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY,
REMOVING THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY GALES. AS HE COLD FRONT PASSES
SUNDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST. RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
LAKE ALONG THE FRONT. BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE CANADIAN PLAINS INTO
ONTARIO. THIS WILL BE A POTENTIAL PERIOD FOR SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS ALONG THE NEARSHORE ZONES THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO THE
BUILDING WAVES AND BREEZY WINDS. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WINDS
WILL WEAKEN A BIT AND TURN TO EASTERLY THEN SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY.
PATTERSON
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
VISIT US AT WEATHER.GOV/MILWAUKEE
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK, X, AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
WWW.X.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSMILWAUKEE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page