117
FXUS64 KMOB 191029
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
428 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
..NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE
NEAR TERM
(NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
A SOGGY MORNING IS UNDERWAY AS RAIN CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE
REGION. AS WE HAVE BEEN STATING OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, TODAY IS
SHAPING UP TO BE ONE OF THE WETTEST DAYS WE HAVE EXPERIENCED IN THE
PAST FEW MONTHS. BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT, THERE WERE NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO OUR FORECAST FOR TODAY. IT'S GOING TO BE WET WITH 3-5
INCHES OF BENEFICIAL, SOAKING RAIN TODAY. 3-5 INCHES MAY SOUND LIKE
A LOT OF RAIN, AND IT IS, HOWEVER, FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE REMAINS HIGH
GIVEN THAT THE MAJORITY OF OUR AREA SITS IN A D2 (SEVERE) OR D3
(EXTREME) DROUGHT. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN FOR TRAINING HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIALLY OVERWHELMING THE SOILS AND LEADING TO FLOODING
IS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERNMOST COUNTIES (MORE SPECIFICALLY, OUR COASTAL
COUNTIES). MUCH OF THE HIGH-RES GUIDANCE THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THAT THE HEAVIEST RAIN REMAINS JUST OFFSHORE OR CLIPS OUR
COASTAL COUNTIES. LOOKING AT SOME OF THE PROBABILISTIC DATA, THE
HIGH-END RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6-7 INCHES ARE FOCUSED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR COASTAL COUNTIES TODAY (THINK OF THIS AS WORST
CASE SCENARIO OR THAT THERE IS A 1-IN-10 CHANCE OF RAINFALL BEING
HIGHER THAN THOSE AMOUNTS). WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL HIT
THOSE HIGH END RAINFALL AMOUNTS BASED ON ALL OF THE GUIDANCE AND
RADAR TRENDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT THE 3-5 INCH AMOUNTS ARE
REASONABLE FOR THE AREA. WE DO EXPECT TO SEE SOME MINOR, NUISANCE
FLOODING THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN OUR URBAN AREAS, ESPECIALLY IF ANY
HEAVIER BANDING CAN SET UP IN THOSE LOCATIONS. RAIN WILL COME TO AN
END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, SO
EXPECT A DRY FORECAST FOR TOMORROW.
WINDS ARE CRANKING OUT THERE THIS MORNING WITH MOST OF OUR COASTAL
SITES GUSTING TO 25+ MPH, AS EXPECTED GIVEN THE INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVERHEAD. THE INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW IS ALSO LEADING TO
SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS AS WINDS INCREASE TO 20+ KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 7-
9 FEET (OCCASIONALLY AS HIGH AS 10 FEET WELL OFFSHORE) OVER THE
GULF WATERS AND OUR BAYS/SOUNDS. WINDS BRIEFLY RELAX IN THE WAKE OF
THE POTENT COLD FRONT AND TURN NORTHWESTERLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS QUICKLY REBOUND TOMORROW WITH SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS PERSISTING OVER THE WATER AND GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
OVER LAND OF 20+ MPH, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS ONGOING ALONG THE ENTIRE COASTLINE AS OF
10Z AND WATER LEVELS CONTINUE TO STAY ELEVATED (ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHERN REACHES OF MOBILE BAY) DESPITE BEING PAST HIGH TIDE. WATER
LEVELS WILL BE SLOW TO FALL THIS MORNING DUE TO THE INCREASING
ONSHORE FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE OBSERVED WATER LEVELS
CONTINUE TO OVERPERFORM IN COMPARISON TO THE P-ETSS GUIDANCE (AS
NOTED THE PAST FEW DAYS), ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN MOBILE BAY. FOR
THAT REASON, WE'RE STICKING WITH THE HIGH-END PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
WHICH INDICATES THAT ANOTHER ROUND OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT. WHILE WE ARE MORE CONCERNED ABOUT THE COASTAL
FLOODING IN THE NORTHERN REACHES OF MOBILE BAY TONIGHT, THE REST OF
THE COASTAL INTERFACE MAY STILL HAVE LINGERING ISSUES TONIGHT DUE TO
THE RISING WATER LEVELS AND WAVE RUN-UP. SURF WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH 6-7 FOOT BREAKERS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE DAY, OCCASIONALLY AS HIGH AS 8 FEET. WHILE THE SURF HEIGHTS
WILL START TO DECREASE TONIGHT, WE STILL EXPECT 5-6 FOOT BREAKERS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SURF SHOULD QUICKLY FALL TO AROUND
3-4 FEET BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS HIGH
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE FALLING TO A MODERATE RISK WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
07/MB
SHORT AND LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. A
NORTHWEST FLOW LOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING WEST OF THE
AREA WILL MAINTAIN A DEEP LAYER NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS CONTINUING TO FLOW INTO THE AREA THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. WARMER TEMPS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TECH
UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. HIGH TEMPS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S INLAND TO MID 60S
ALONG THE COAST. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S INLAND TO LOW
50S NEAR THE COAST. /13
MARINE
ISSUED AT 428 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
STRONG ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF WATERS AND BAYS/SOUNDS
FOR STRONG WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE GULF OF 7-9 FEET, OCCASIONALLY AS
HIGH AS 10 FEET WELL OFFSHORE. WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE STILL REMAINS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MODERATE TO
OCCASIONALLY STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL EXIST THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT TO MODERATE FOR THE WEEKEND. 07/MB
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 77 59 74 42 64 42 62 39 / 100 10 0 0 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 75 65 75 47 63 46 61 43 / 100 20 0 0 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 76 68 78 49 66 47 63 45 / 100 50 0 0 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 74 59 73 38 64 37 59 35 / 100 20 0 0 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 78 54 69 38 64 38 60 34 / 90 10 0 0 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 74 57 70 38 60 37 56 34 / 100 20 0 0 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 75 61 77 38 66 38 63 36 / 100 40 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ALZ263>266.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ263>266.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALZ265-266.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
FLZ202-204-206.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR FLZ202-204-206.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ630>636-650-
655-670-675.
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