575
FXUS64 KMOB 200442
AFDMOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1042 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
..NEW AVIATION
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1042 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
A BLEND OF IFR, TO PERHAPS INSTANCES OF LIFR CIGS AND PATCHY FOG
WITH VSBY RESTRICTIONS TO IFR/MVFR CATEGORIES EARLY IN THE TAF
PERIOD BEFORE CIGS BEGIN TO LIFT IN WAKE OF WAVE OF SURFACE
FRONTAL LOW PRESSURE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE GULF COAST. WINDS
SHIFT MORE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY WED, WHERE GUSTS LIKELY TO RANGE FROM 20 TO 30
KTS. /10
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 940 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024/
.NEW UPDATE
UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DRIER AIR FROM MS,
SOUTHWEST TO EAST TX, BEGINNING TO EXPAND MORE EASTWARD THIS
EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DRIVING EASTWARD OVER
THE EASTERN GULF. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME PATCHY FOG AND
DRIZZLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF EASTWARD MOVING WAVE OF SURFACE FRONTAL
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST, BUT MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
LOOKS TO BE ENDING AND THUS THE PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION ARE
LOWERING. LATEST FORECAST ON THOSE ARE ON TRACK THIS EVENING.
THERE IS STILL A SIGNAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF OVERNIGHT FOG OVER
THE NORTHEAST TIER OF ZONES BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN BY DAYBREAK
AND BRINGS IMPROVED VISIBILITY.
COASTAL HAZARDS...WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING TONIGHT AROUND HIGH TIDE ALONG OUR ENTIRE
COASTLINE. SEE NEAR TERM FOR MORE SPECIFICS. /10
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024/
NEW AVIATION
AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 526 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
PRE-FRONTAL BAND OF SHRA/EMBEDDED TSRA IS EXITING EAST OUT OF THE
LOCAL AREA. WAVE OF FRONTAL LOW PRESSURE WAS POSITIONED OVER
MOBILE COUNTY AT 19.23Z AND WILL CONTINUE A SLOW EASTWARD
TRANSLATION, BRINGING A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WIND SHIFT THIS
EVENING. IFR/MVFR CIGS AND PERHAPS MVFR VSBYS IN PASSING,
LINGERING LIGHT SHRA POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE,
WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST WITH CIGS FORECAST TO BEGIN LIFTING BY AND
AFTER 20.04Z. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WEDNESDAY. /10
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024/
NEW NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
NEAR TERM...
(NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
THE SHIELD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL HAS EXITED OUR LOCAL
REGION TO OUR EAST AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE LIFTS AWAY FROM THE
REGION. AT THE SURFACE, THE FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW
LINGERING, LIGHT SHOWERS COULD STILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH, BUT OTHERWISE, TODAY'S RAIN EVENT IS NOW OVER.
SEVERAL COASTAL HAZARDS STILL REMAIN IN EFFECT AND THIS WILL BE
DETAILED IN THE 'COASTAL HAZARDS' SECTION BELOW.
AN UPPER-LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US WILL EVOLVE INTO
A MASSIVE UPPER LOW THAT WILL ENCOMPASS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US
BY THE END OF THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. AS IT PUSHES TO THE EAST, IT
WILL HELP TO SEND A SECOND, MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
LOCAL AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT, ALLOWING FOR A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO ADVECT IN
FROM THE NORTH. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES TO THE MID 60S
OVER OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. SIMILARLY, HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTHEAST.
COASTAL HAZARDS...WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING TONIGHT AROUND HIGH TIDE ALONG OUR ENTIRE
COASTLINE. P-ETSS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOCATIONS ALONG THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MOBILE BAY MAY REACH AROUND 1.7 TO 1.9 FEET
MHHW, WHICH WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO SOME SPLASHOVER/STANDING WATER
ALONG THE US 90/98 CAUSEWAY. MINOR FLOODING OF DOCKS, PIERS, BOAT
RAMPS AND OTHER LOW-LYING AREAS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MOBILE BAY CAN
ALSO BE EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST, WATER LEVELS MAY GET
CLOSE TO 2.0 FEET MHHW. REACHING THIS CRITERIA IS A BIT LESS
CERTAIN THAN REACHING CRITERIA IN MOBILE BAY, BUT AS THE PREVIOUS
SHIFT MENTIONED, OBSERVED WATER LEVELS HAVE OVERPERFORMED IN
COMPARISON TO THE P-ETSS GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS.
THEREFORE, HAVE DECIDED TO MAINTAIN THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
ALONG THE ENTIRE COASTLINE. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL ALSO
CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT FOR SURF HEIGHTS OF 5 TO 7 FEET. SURF
HEIGHTS SHOULD QUICKLY FALL TO BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING.
SIMILARLY, A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE QUICKLY FALLING TO MODERATE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND LOW BY THURSDAY. /96
SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD, AND OUR
AREA COULD SEE LOWS REACH FREEZING VALUES WELL INLAND LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. A LARGE UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN STATES SLOWLY ADVANCES
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, AND A FAIRLY
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE FORECAST REGION ON SATURDAY AND
PERSISTS INTO TUESDAY. THIS PATTERN MAINTAINS A COOL AND DRY DEEP
LAYER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
ALONG WITH A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION. LOWS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S WELL INLAND TO THE MID
40S AT THE COAST, THEN TREND COOLER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BY WHICH
TIME LOWS RANGE FROM AROUND FREEZING WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 40S
AT THE COAST. IT'S POSSIBLE THAT OUR AREA COULD NEED THE FIRST
FREEZE PRODUCT ISSUANCE OF THE SEASON WELL INLAND FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S, THEN
THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER
50S INLAND TO THE LOWER 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA, WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY. WHILE THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW DOES BEGIN TO RETURN MOISTURE TO THE AREA, THIS
DOESN'T LOOK SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT CONSIDERATION OF POPS. A
WARMING TREND ENSUES, AND BY TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S, AND BY MONDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
WELL INLAND TO THE LOWER 60S NEAR THE COAST. A MODERATE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A LOW RISK FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. /29
MARINE...
ISSUED AT 342 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY
TONIGHT AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY, WITH STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL
MARINE AREAS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. GUSTS OFFSHORE MAY OCCASIONALLY
APPROACH GALE FORCE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AFTER BRIEFLY SUBSIDING
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY, STRONG WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT, AND ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED. WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO RELAX ON FRIDAY, WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED BY SATURDAY. /96
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MOBILE 59 73 41 64 42 61 38 63 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
PENSACOLA 64 76 45 64 46 61 42 63 / 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
DESTIN 67 77 49 66 48 63 45 65 / 60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
EVERGREEN 59 74 38 63 38 58 35 62 / 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
WAYNESBORO 54 70 39 63 38 59 35 63 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CAMDEN 55 71 39 60 38 55 33 59 / 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
CRESTVIEW 60 77 40 66 38 63 35 66 / 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ263>266.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALZ265-266.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ALZ265-266.
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ202-204-
206.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR FLZ202-204-206.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST THURSDAY FOR GMZ630>636-650-
655-670-675.
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