742
FXUS63 KMPX 161148
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
548 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM BUT BREEZY THIS WEEKEND. SATURDAY HIGHS IN THE 50S WITH
WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH. SUNDAY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH.
- LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING RAIN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN.
- COOLING DOWN TO NEAR AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LATER
PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE UPPER
30S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 243 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
AS A RESULT OF WAA OUTPACING MOISTURE ADVECTION, THIS MORNING IS
NEARLY FOG FREE. A WELCOME SIGHT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. SKIES
WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. IN FACT, A FEW NEAR 60 VALUES MAY BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN WESTERN MN. WINDS WILL ALSO
BE STRONG OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 35 MPH. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES TO OUR
NORTH. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE DRY, EXCEPT NEAR EAU AND
OUR EASTERN WI COUNTIES WHERE JUST ENOUGH SATURATION COULD
RESULT IN SOME EVENING RAIN SHOWERS. CURRENTLY HAVE 20-30% POPS
IN THIS REGION FOR THIS EVENING. BUT ASIDE FROM SOME POTENTIAL
WETTING RAIN IN WESTERN WI, THE REST OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY FOLLOWING THE
FRONT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S TONIGHT AND HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SUNDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO SWITCH TO
WESTERLY POST- FRONT AND TREND DOWNWARD IN SPEED GOING INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE EVEN COOLER WITH UPPER
20S TO MID 30S POSSIBLE.
THE FORECAST BECOMES A LOT MORE INTERESTING AFTER SUNDAY AS RAIN
LOOKS LIKE A CERTAINTY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. A COMPACT,
BUT NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE ORIGINATING FROM THE BAJA
PENINSULA WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO WESTERN TX BY MONDAY MORNING.
FROM THERE, THE WAVE WILL QUICKLY EJECT NORTH-NORTHEAST,
SPAWNING A STRONG SURFACE CYCLONE AHEAD OF IT. WITH STRONG
DYNAMICS AT PLAY AND COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE BEING DRAGGED
NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO, A LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
WILL FORM AROUND THE LOW AS IT TRAVELS NORTHWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE IN
SOUTHERN MN BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON, SPREADING NORTHWARD AND
ENVELOPING THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
EVENTUALLY, AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES NORTH, A MID-LEVEL DRY
SLOT SHOULD WRAP AROUND FROM THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AND
DIMINISH PRECIP OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MN AFTER
TUESDAY MORNING. WITH PWAT VALUES OF 1-1.25" (APPROACHING
CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR), A SOLID 1-1.5" OF
RAIN LOOKS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY FOR A MAJORITY OF THE MPX
CWA. RAIN COULD ALSO BE QUITE HEAVY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT WHEN MAXIMUM LIFT AND PROFILE SATURATION WILL OCCUR. SOME
RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW NON- ZERO MUCAPE. WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY FROM THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OF
THE SURFACE LOW. WIND FIELDS WILL BE COUNTER-CLOCKWISE AROUND
THE LOW SO EXPECT WIND DIRECTIONS TO CHANGE FROM SOUTHEASTERLY
TO WESTERLY AS THE LOW PASSES.
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODEL SUITES STILL EXIST WITH HOW THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW OCCLUDES AND EVENTUALLY INTERACTS
WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH ORIGINATING FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE ECMWF AND EPS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LOW TRAVELING
MORE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY STALLING OVER NORTHERN MN TUESDAY
EVENING. WITH THE SECOND TROUGH AND ITS GREATER AMOUNTS OF COLD
AIR IN TOW, THIS SCENARIO WOULD RESULT IN MORE SNOWFALL ACROSS
ND AND NORTHWEST MN (POTENTIALLY AFFECTING OUR FAR NORTHWEST
COUNTIES) TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, THE GFS
AND GEFS (AND TO AN EXTENT THEIR CANADIAN COUNTERPARTS) ARE MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SURFACE LOW WEAKENING AND ENDING UP OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WOULD GREATLY DIMINISH THE POTENTIAL
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER ND AND NORTHWEST MN (INCLUDING OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES). GUIDANCE DOES MOSTLY AGREE ON A SECONDARY
CYCLONE FORMING OVER THE MIDWEST/LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH THE CYCLONE TRAVELING INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN SEABOARD BY FRIDAY. THUS, MODEL TRENDS ARE HINTING
AT A MORE PROGRESSIVE SCENARIO, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN OUR AREA
BEING MORE LIKELY TO SEE PERIODS OF COSMETIC TO LIGHT SNOW
BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES TOO FAR EAST. AFTERWARDS, IT APPEARS WE
COOL DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW PATTERN SETS UP. THIS PATTERN MAY BE SHORT-LIVED, THOUGH,
AS FORECAST MODELS DO HINT AT BUILDING ANOTHER RIDGE NEAR THE
CENTRAL CONUS TWO SUNDAYS FROM NOW. BUT MODEL PREDICTABILITY IS
OBVIOUSLY LOW AT SUCH A FAR TIME IN ADVANCE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 532 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
VFR TO START FOR ALL TAF SITES WITH PASSING HIGH CLOUDS,
EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING HIGH CEILINGS BY LATE MORNING. AS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND CROSSES MN/WI
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, LOWER CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA, PARTICULARLY OVER EASTERN MN INTO WESTERN WI, WHERE VFR
AND MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY. DURATION WILL NOT BE LONG,
GENERALLY FROM NEAR DUSK THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. A FEW SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN WI THIS EVENING, MAINLY NEAR
AND EAST OF THE EAU AREA. THE MAIN ISSUE LOOKS TO BE STRONG
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS TODAY. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 20G35KTS FOR MOST TAF SITES, PARTICULARLY LATE MORNING
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
KMSP...VFR AND BREEZY/GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH HIGH
CEILINGS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND VEER THIS EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING, WITH MID-LEVEL CEILINGS DEVELOPING NEAR OR JUST
AFTER SUNSET. CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP AS THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA, RESULTING IN MVFR CEILINGS
OVERNIGHT, FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WIND SE 10-15KTS.
TUE...MVFR/RA. IFR LIKELY. WIND E 10-15KTS BCMG NW 15-20G25-30
KTS.
WED...MVFR. CHANCE -SHRA/IFR. WIND NW 15G25-30KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...JPC
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