227
FXUS63 KMPX 161805
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1205 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM BUT BREEZY THIS WEEKEND. SATURDAY HIGHS IN THE 50S WITH
WIND GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH. SUNDAY HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH.
- LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING RAIN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN.
- COOLING DOWN TO NEAR AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LATER
PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE UPPER
30S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 243 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
AS A RESULT OF WAA OUTPACING MOISTURE ADVECTION, THIS MORNING IS
NEARLY FOG FREE. A WELCOME SIGHT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. SKIES
WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S. IN FACT, A FEW NEAR 60 VALUES MAY BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN WESTERN MN. WINDS WILL ALSO
BE STRONG OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TODAY WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 35 MPH. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES TO OUR
NORTH. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE DRY, EXCEPT NEAR EAU AND
OUR EASTERN WI COUNTIES WHERE JUST ENOUGH SATURATION COULD
RESULT IN SOME EVENING RAIN SHOWERS. CURRENTLY HAVE 20-30% POPS
IN THIS REGION FOR THIS EVENING. BUT ASIDE FROM SOME POTENTIAL
WETTING RAIN IN WESTERN WI, THE REST OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES COOL SLIGHTLY FOLLOWING THE
FRONT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S TONIGHT AND HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SUNDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO SWITCH TO
WESTERLY POST- FRONT AND TREND DOWNWARD IN SPEED GOING INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE EVEN COOLER WITH UPPER
20S TO MID 30S POSSIBLE.
THE FORECAST BECOMES A LOT MORE INTERESTING AFTER SUNDAY AS RAIN
LOOKS LIKE A CERTAINTY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. A COMPACT,
BUT NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE ORIGINATING FROM THE BAJA
PENINSULA WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO WESTERN TX BY MONDAY MORNING.
FROM THERE, THE WAVE WILL QUICKLY EJECT NORTH-NORTHEAST,
SPAWNING A STRONG SURFACE CYCLONE AHEAD OF IT. WITH STRONG
DYNAMICS AT PLAY AND COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE BEING DRAGGED
NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO, A LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
WILL FORM AROUND THE LOW AS IT TRAVELS NORTHWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. RAIN SHOULD ARRIVE IN
SOUTHERN MN BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON, SPREADING NORTHWARD AND
ENVELOPING THE ENTIRE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
EVENTUALLY, AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES NORTH, A MID-LEVEL DRY
SLOT SHOULD WRAP AROUND FROM THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AND
DIMINISH PRECIP OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF MN AFTER
TUESDAY MORNING. WITH PWAT VALUES OF 1-1.25" (APPROACHING
CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR), A SOLID 1-1.5" OF
RAIN LOOKS LIKE A GOOD POSSIBILITY FOR A MAJORITY OF THE MPX
CWA. RAIN COULD ALSO BE QUITE HEAVY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT WHEN MAXIMUM LIFT AND PROFILE SATURATION WILL OCCUR. SOME
RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW NON- ZERO MUCAPE. WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE STRONG
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY FROM THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OF
THE SURFACE LOW. WIND FIELDS WILL BE COUNTER-CLOCKWISE AROUND
THE LOW SO EXPECT WIND DIRECTIONS TO CHANGE FROM SOUTHEASTERLY
TO WESTERLY AS THE LOW PASSES.
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODEL SUITES STILL EXIST WITH HOW THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW OCCLUDES AND EVENTUALLY INTERACTS
WITH A SECONDARY TROUGH ORIGINATING FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE ECMWF AND EPS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LOW TRAVELING
MORE NORTH AND EVENTUALLY STALLING OVER NORTHERN MN TUESDAY
EVENING. WITH THE SECOND TROUGH AND ITS GREATER AMOUNTS OF COLD
AIR IN TOW, THIS SCENARIO WOULD RESULT IN MORE SNOWFALL ACROSS
ND AND NORTHWEST MN (POTENTIALLY AFFECTING OUR FAR NORTHWEST
COUNTIES) TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, THE GFS
AND GEFS (AND TO AN EXTENT THEIR CANADIAN COUNTERPARTS) ARE MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SURFACE LOW WEAKENING AND ENDING UP OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WOULD GREATLY DIMINISH THE POTENTIAL
FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER ND AND NORTHWEST MN (INCLUDING OUR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES). GUIDANCE DOES MOSTLY AGREE ON A SECONDARY
CYCLONE FORMING OVER THE MIDWEST/LOWER GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH THE CYCLONE TRAVELING INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN SEABOARD BY FRIDAY. THUS, MODEL TRENDS ARE HINTING
AT A MORE PROGRESSIVE SCENARIO, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN OUR AREA
BEING MORE LIKELY TO SEE PERIODS OF COSMETIC TO LIGHT SNOW
BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES TOO FAR EAST. AFTERWARDS, IT APPEARS WE
COOL DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS A NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW PATTERN SETS UP. THIS PATTERN MAY BE SHORT-LIVED, THOUGH,
AS FORECAST MODELS DO HINT AT BUILDING ANOTHER RIDGE NEAR THE
CENTRAL CONUS TWO SUNDAYS FROM NOW. BUT MODEL PREDICTABILITY IS
OBVIOUSLY LOW AT SUCH A FAR TIME IN ADVANCE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE THE MAIN AVIATION STORY TO OPEN THE
18Z TAF PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS ARE SET TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FOR THE MINNESOTA TERMINALS. MVFR STRATUS IS LIFTING
NORTHWEST IN WESTERN WISCONSIN AND HAS ALREADY REACHED EAU. THE
STRATUS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH CLOSELY AT RNH AND POTENTIALLY
MSP (SEE BELOW) HEADING INTO THIS EVENING. A SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT, WHICH WILL KICK THE
WINDS OUT OF THE WEST HEADING INTO SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
HIGH THAT THE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL NOT PRODUCE PRECIPITATION
AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS, HOWEVER HI-RES GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR -SHRA AT EAU. WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE PROB30
BETWEEN 3-7Z AT EAU TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL. WESTERLY WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO GUST BETWEEN 20-25 KTS AFTER DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
KMSP...KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS
NORTHEAST IOWA/WESTERN WISCONSIN, AS MVFR STRATUS IS SLOWLY
LIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST. LATEST RAP GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
OPTIMISTIC AT MSP, SUCH THAT WE'VE OPTED TO ROLL WITH VFR CIGS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. INTRODUCED SCT025/020 TO ILLUSTRATE THE
IDEA OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS UNTIL WINDS SHIFT MORE SW/W AFTER
4/5Z.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WIND SE 10-15KTS.
TUE...MVFR/RA, IFR LIKELY. WIND E 10-15KTS BCMG W 15-20G30 KTS.
WED...MVFR. CHANCE -SHRA/IFR. WIND NW 15G25-30KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...STRUS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page