003
FXUS63 KMPX 170459
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1059 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD AND WINDY WEATHER CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER BUT STILL BREEZY CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY.
- WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AN INCH OR
SO OF RAIN LOOKS LIKELY AT MOST LOCATIONS.
- COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS CAPTURES ~998MB LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE ANALYZED TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW HAS PRODUCED STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN. THE
COMBINATION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND EFFICIENT MIXING HAS ALLOWED
FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE
COMING HOURS, TIED TO THE NORTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE
LOW. NOT MUCH CHANGE THE EXPECTED DRY PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, WITH
THE ONLY MENTION OF 20-30% POPS ACROSS THE EASTERNMOST COUNTIES
IN WESTERN WISCONSIN. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND BETTER SATURATION
WITHIN THE COLUMN MAY PROMOTE SCATTERED SHOWERS LATER THIS
EVENING. THE GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
TURN WESTERLY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SLIGHTLY COOLER, BUT
STILL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S ARE ON DECK
FOR SUNDAY, WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH BY TOMORROW EVENING, WITH CLEAR AND QUIET WEATHER TO
CLOSE THE WEEKEND.
THE FORECAST TAKES A MUCH WETTER TURN TO OPEN THE WORK WEEK. A
NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO KICK NORTHEAST FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS BY MIDDAY MONDAY.
STRONG ASCENT EAST OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL SPAWN A SURFACE LOW ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS MONDAY MORNING, WITH A TRAJECTORY TOWARDS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. A PROLONGED FETCH OF GULF MOISTURE WILL YIELD A NEARLY 5
SIGMA PWAT ANOMALY INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY MONDAY EVENING. IN
FACT, THE EXPECTED 1-1.25" PWATS WILL BE NEAR THE
CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUM, POTENTIALLY SETTING A NEW RECORD PER MPX
SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. MOISTURE RETURN WILL WORK IN TANDEM WITH
BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO PRODUCE AN EXPANSIVE SHIELD OF
RAINFALL NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW, WHICH IS SET TO ARRIVE IN
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAINFALL IS REFLECTED BY 90-100% POPS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE LATEST
QPF EXPECTATIONS BETWEEN 1-1.5" FOR THE MAJORITY OF COMMUNITIES
REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. RAIN WILL
END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TUESDAY MORNING, AS THE SYSTEMS DRY SLOT
WRAPS IN. EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST ACROSS EASTERN
MN/WESTERN WI INITIALLY, FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS WESTERN MN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SURFACE LOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE EVOLUTION OF THE FORECAST BEYOND TUESDAY STILL REMAINS A
SOMEWHAT OF A LOWER CONFIDENCE SITUATION, THOUGH THE RANGE OF
POTENTIAL OUTCOMES IS STARTING TO NARROW. THE STRENGTH OF THE
INTERACTION/PHASING BETWEEN THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND AN UPSTREAM
TROUGH WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOW THE FORECAST EVOLVES. AS
MENTIONED BY THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT, THE EURO SUITE GENERALLY
FAVORS A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK OF THE OCCLUDING SURFACE LOW,
WHERE AS THE GFS SUITE IS ON MORE OF A NORTHEASTERLY TRAJECTORY.
THE GENERAL EURO/EPS THEME, WHICH WE'LL CALL SCENARIO #1, WOULD
ALLOW FOR COLDER AIR TO ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY, RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW. SCENARIO #2, DEPICTED BY THE GFS/GEFS, TAKES MORE OF AN
EASTERLY TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. WHILE THERE
WILL STILL BE SOME DEGREE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION ON THE WESTERN
EXTENT OF THE UPPER-LOW, IT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MUCH IN
THE WAY OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION. THE CANADIAN SUITE LEANS ON
THE SIDE OF THE EUROPEAN, WITH A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK OF THE
INITIAL SURFACE LOW. PUTTING THE PIECES TOGETHER, IT CERTAINLY
LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR LIGHT SNOW TO OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER AMOUNTS WOULD BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
DEPTH OF COLD AIR ALOFT AND WOULD MOST LIKELY NOT BE
SIGNIFICANT. A SECONDARY SURFACE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY, THOUGH LATEST TRENDS KEEP THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA DRY WITH ALL OF THE WRAP AROUND
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE
TO END OF NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1049 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
COLD FRONT HAS BEEN MAKING STEADY PROGRESS ACROSS MN THIS
EVENING AND GOING TAFS HAVE IT TIMED OUT PRETTY GOOD. ONLY
CHANGES NEEDED WERE TO SLOW DOWN THE CLEARING BY AN HOUR OR TWO
FOR MKT/MSP/RNH/EAU. OF GREATER CONCERNS IS THE STRATUS BACK
OVER THE DAKOTAS, WHICH CONTINUES TO REACH FARTHER SOUTH THAN
ANY GUIDANCE SAYS IT SHOULD. THE GOOD THINK ABOUT THAT IS THAT
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THIS STRATUS WILL IMPACT AXN/STC TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING, BUT THERE'S A THREAT WE COULD SEE IT GET
INTO RWF AND MSP AS WELL. GIVEN THE SURFACE LOW THAT IS
PROVIDING THE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE GOING NNE THROUGH THE NIGHT,
WE EXPECT THE SOUTH EDGE OF THE STRATUS TO GO FROM ITS CURRENT
POSITION NEAR MITCHEL (KMHE), NORTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST WI.
BEHIND THE MORNING STRATUS, SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT. WE'LL HAVE
GUSTY WEST WINDS INTO THE AFTERNOON, BUT BY SUNSET, WE'LL START
LOSING THE GUSTS, WITH THE WINDS TURNING BACK TO THE SOUTH BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.
KMSP...STRATUS IN THE DAKOTAS IS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN PRETTY
MUCH ANYTHING THINKS IT SHOULD BE, SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 11Z AND 16Z, THOUGH CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT THOSE CIGS WILL SLIDE NORTH OF MSP.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. RA/MVFR IN EVENING. WIND SE 10-15KTS.
TUE...MVFR/IFR. MRNG RA. WIND E 10-15KTS BCMG W 20-25G35 KTS.
WED...MVFR. CHANCE -SHRA/IFR. WIND WNW 15G25-30KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STRUS
AVIATION...MPG
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