386
FXUS63 KMPX 180900
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
300 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN APPEARS LIKELY AT MOST
LOCATIONS.
- COLDER AIR ARRIVES MID-WEEK. SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE
ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COLDER BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN AT LEAST THE 20S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 259 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. EVEN SOME PESKY FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT
EAU AND HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING BACK AND FORTH AT THE ASOS. HIGHS TODAY
WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S BUT CLOUD COVER WILL QUICKLY
INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS OUR NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
APPROACHES. ADDITIONALLY, AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS,
EASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE, ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THIS EVENING WHEN GUSTS COULD REACH 35 MPH. CAMS CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE LOW'S LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD
REACHING THE MN/IA BORDER BY 1-2 PM THIS AFTERNOON. FROM THEN, RAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH COVERING THE ENTIRE CWA BY 8 PM AND
LIKELY LASTING FOR THE ENTIRE NIGHT. ONLY WHEN THE SURFACE LOW
FINALLY PASSES NORTH OVER US AND THE DRY SLOT STARTS TO WRAP IN ON
THE LOW'S SOUTH SIDE WILL PRECIPITATION BEGIN TO SHUT OFF FROM SOUTH
TO NORTH DURING TUESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE 1-1.5"
CWA-WIDE, ACCORDING TO GUIDANCE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN WHERE A MEAGER AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY
IS FORECAST. MOST OF THE CWA SHOULD DRY OUT AS DRY AIR ON THE
BACKSIDE ADVECTS COUNTER-CLOCKWISE, EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MN (AXN, STC, BRD, ETC.). HERE, FORECAST SOUNDINGS HANG ON TO
GREATER LOW-LEVEL SATURATION, SO DRIZZLE AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES
COULD BECOME AN ISSUE TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
ALSO TURN TO WESTERLY DURING TUESDAY AND REMAIN STRONG AFTER
THE SURFACE LOW PASSES OVERHEAD. THE LOW WILL OCCLUDE AND
CONTINUE NORTHWARD BEFORE STALLING OUT OVER EASTERN
MANITOBA/WESTERN ONTARIO TUESDAY NIGHT.
WHILE THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE ARCHING COLD FRONT/WARM SECTOR
WILL BE LOCATED WELL TO OUR NORTH BY TUESDAY EVENING, LIGHT WRAP-
AROUND PRECIP ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD
INTO WESTERN MN. AT THE SAME TIME, MUCH COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ARRIVING FROM THE WEST. THE PRECIP
IN WESTERN MN WILL ORIGINALLY BE RAIN, BUT AS THE COLUMN COOLS FROM
CAA A CHANGE TO A RAIN-SNOW MIX TO EVENTUAL SNOW IS EXPECTED. THE
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOULD BE COMPLETE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
LIGHT SNOW SPREADING OVER THE REMAINDER OF OUR CWA FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SNOW SHOWERS INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED OWING TO THE
FORECAST LOW SNOWFALL RATES AND WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, A
COUPLE OF INCHES MAY BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN MN WHERE BETTER LIFT AND
SLIGHTLY BETTER SNOWFALL RATES ARE FORECAST. SOME LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE IS ALSO POSSIBLE, MAINLY IN CENTRAL MN, WHERE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ARE HINTING AT SUB-FREEZING LOW-LEVEL SATURATION THAT IS
BELOW THE DGZ. TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET WITH WEDNESDAY'S HIGHS ONLY
EXPECTED IN THE 30S. COMBINED WITH THE STILL STRONG WESTERLY WINDS
AND SNOW SHOWERS, WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE AN UNPLEASANT DAY TO BE
OUTSIDE.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LIGHT SNOW WILL DISSIPATE AND MOVE EAST EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS COLD AND DRIER
WITH POTENTIALLY LOTS OF CLOUD COVER. COLD AIR IS FORECAST TO KEEP
FUNNELING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP DOWNSTREAM OF A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES.
OUR FIRST REAL TASTE OF WINTER STARTS THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOWS WILL
DROP TO NEAR 20 IN WESTERN MN WITH 20S TO NEAR 30 ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES ONLY GET WORSE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN MID TO
UPPER TEENS ARE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN MN. NOT MUCH WARMING WILL OCCUR
DURING THE DAY EITHER AS HIGHS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S ARE
FORECAST. A SLIGHT REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS LONG-RANGE MODELS SHOW THE NORTHWEST FLOW BRIEFLY SUBSIDING.
HOWEVER, THESE SAME MODELS ALSO DRAG THE POOL OF REALLY COLD AIR
THAT WAS OVER WESTERN CANADA OVER TO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND
CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THE NORTHERLY JETSTREAM ALSO GETS DISPLACED MORE
TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE CONUS DURING NEXT WEEK. THE COLDER AIR WILL
THEN BE MORE EASILY ACCESSIBLE TO ANY SHORTWAVES THAT FORM WITHIN
THE FLOW. THUS, WE WOULD HAVE BETTER CHANCES AT WINTRY
TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION TOWARDS THE END OF NOVEMBER AND
BEGINNING OF DECEMBER.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
WELL, THE RAIN WE HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT FOR DAYS EARLY IN THE
UPCOMING WEEK HAS FINALLY MADE IT INTO THE TAF WINDOW. THE ONLY
FIELDS THAT MAY STAY DRY THIS PERIOD ARE AXN & STC AS RAIN WILL
JUST BE MOVING INTO THOSE TERMINALS AS THIS PERIOD ENDS. FOR ALL
OTHER TERMINALS, A WALL OF WATER WILL MOVE IN DURING THE
AFTERNOON. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME MVFR CIGS
MOVING IN A COUPLE OF HOURS AHEAD OF THE RAIN, BUT ONCE RAINS
HIT, CIGS WILL QUICKLY DROP TO IFR LEVELS, WITH IFR/MVFR VIS. AS
THE RAIN ARRIVES, EAST WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP IN STRENGTH AND
BECOME GUSTY AS WELL.
KMSP...FOR NEARLY 24 HOURS OUT, MODEL SPREAD IS PRETTY SMALL
WITH ONSET OF RAIN ON MONDAY AT EITHER 21Z OR 22Z.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...MVFR/IFR. RA EARLY. WIND WSW 20-25G35 KTS.
WED...MVFR. CHANCE -SHSN/IFR. WIND W 15-20G25-30KTS.
THU...MVFR CIGS LIKELY. WIND NW 15-20G25-30KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...MPG
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