201
FXUS63 KMPX 182122 CCA
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
322 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ACCUMULATIONS AROUND
1".
- SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE.
- MUCH COLDER LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE END OF NOVEMBER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
THE FORECAST FOR A WET AND BLUSTERY NIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK AS A
MID-980S MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS RAPIDLY APPROACHES THE
UPPER MIDWEST. NO SURPRISES IN TERMS OF THE RAIN FORECAST, WITH
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD AHEAD OF THE LOW ALREADY OVER SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA CONTINUING TO SPREAD NORTHWARDS THIS EVENING. MODELS
REMAIN IN CONSENSUS WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND
1-1.5" TONIGHT, WITH HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTING THE
CHANCE FOR ENHANCED PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA
RESULTING IN AMOUNTS CLOSER TO 1.5-2". THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN OVER THE REGION AS THE LOW APPROACHES,
WITHE EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST OVER 30 MPH AS THE RAIN
APPROACHES. A FEW HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA & WESTERN
WISCONSIN, BUT THESE MODELS DEEPEN THE LOW TOWARDS 980 MB OVER
SOUTHWEST MN TONIGHT WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY AS OF NOW. STILL, IT
WILL BE A VERY WET AND BLUSTERY NIGHT EVERYWHERE ACROSS THE AREA
SO PREPARE FOR LOWER VISIBILITY IF TRAVELING TONIGHT.
THE BAND OF RAIN AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN
MINNESOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH A LULL IN THE RAIN EXPECTED BY
TOMORROW MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHWARDS THROUGH
MINNESOTA. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE MORNING
BUT THESE WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THE RAINFALL TONIGHT. THE RAIN
TOTALLY COMES TO AN END BY NOON TOMORROW, AS THE LOW FURTHER
OCCLUDES OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA & A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT
EXPANDS OVER MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE BLUSTERY EAST WINDS
WILL SLACKEN DURING THE MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OVER
THE AREA, BUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION ACCOMPANIES THE WESTERLY
WIND SHIFT BEHIND THE LOW, WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH AGAIN LOOKING
LIKELY BY THE AFTERNOON. AGAIN, THE A FEW OF THE OUTLIER HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS DEEPEN THE LOW OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA,
RESULTING IN A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONGER WINDS
OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA WHERE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH CAN'T TOTALLY BE
RULED OUT. WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE LOOK MUCH MORE LIKELY ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS & WEST OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LOW PRESSURE TRENDS TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY, WITH THE
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S OCCURRING SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING THROUGH THE 40S BY
DAYBREAK & FURTHER INTO THE 30S AND 20S TOMORROW NIGHT. AS
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING TOMORROW NIGHT, WEAK FORCING
RETURNS FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE WRAP--AROUND REGION OF THE LOW
ADVANCES INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDS ENOUGH FOR
SNOW, BUT THE FORCING AND REMNANT MOISTURE DOESN;T LOOK ROBUST
ENOUGH FOR ANYTHING ORE THAN TRANSIENT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FROM
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2" ARE ACROSS FAR-WESTERN MINNESOTA, WHERE A
DEFORMATION BAND OF SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS & NORTHWEST MINNESOTA COULD EXTEND FAR-ENOUGH
SOUTH TO IMPACT THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION. OTHERWISE, MAINLY A
DUSTING OF SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH BREEZY ON & OFF SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CEASE BY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE
UPPER AIR PATTERN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM REMAINS FAIRLY QUIET
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WEAK
SYSTEMS AND SNOW CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE COLD AIR BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST, AS
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS NOTHING BUT NORMAL TO BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF NOVEMBER. LOOKING AHEAD TOWARDS
THE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL PERIOD, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, BUT LOW IN THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION AS MODELS SHOW A WIDE SPREAD IN THE OUTCOMES FOR
RAIN/SNOW CHANCES MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST MON NOV 18 2024
IFR STRATUS HAS ALREADY MOVED INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA OUT AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING SHIELD OF RAIN, SO THE MAIN UPDATE THIS
PERIOD HAS BEEN TO SPEED UP THE ARRIVAL OF MVFR/CEILINGS BY A
FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. 2-3 HOURS AFTER THE LOWER CEILINGS
ARRIVE, THE FORECAST STILL REMAINS ON TRACK FOR SEVERAL HOURS
OF STEADY RAIN THIS EVENING & OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS WILL QUICKLY
DROP TO IFR AS THE RAIN BEGINS, WITH VISIBILITY HOVERING BETWEEN
2-4SM THROUGH THE NIGHT. EASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AS
THE WIND BEGINS, WITH LLWS UP TO 50 KTS DURING THE PERIOD OF
HEAVIEST RAIN THIS EVENING & TONIGHT. THE MAIN BAND OF RAIN WILL
MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT, MAINLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TO 3
AM. SOME BREAKS IN THE RAIN ARE LIKELY AFTER THIS TIME, WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO THE
MORNING. THE RAIN TOTALLY EXITS THE AREA BY MID TO LATE
MORNING, WITH CEILINGS LIKELY IMPROVING TO MVFR & POSSIBLY VFR
IF BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER BECOME WIDESPREAD.
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON,
BECOMING EASTERLY AS THE RAIN BEGINS. WINDS WILL SHARPLY
INCREASE WITH THE RAIN, WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING& TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME VARIABLE AND WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA,
WITH THE DIRECTION GENERALLY BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT &
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY TOMORROW MORNING. WIND GUSTS AROUND
30 KTS RETURN WITH THE WESTERLY WIND SHIFT TOMORROW MORNING.
KMSP...LOWER CEILINGS ARE ADVANCING OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
RAIN, SO EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO REACH THE TERMINAL AS EARLY AS
2 PM. THE RAIN STILL APPEARS ON TRACK TO ARRIVE BETWEEN 4-5 PM,
WITH CEILINGS DROPPING TO IFR AND VISIBILITY HOVERING AROUND
IFR/MVFR LEVELS. SOUTHEAST WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY AS THE
RAIN ARRIVES WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS EXPECTED DURING THE RAIN.
THE MAIN BAND OF RAIN WILL EXIT THE AREA AROUND 2-3 AM, WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE MORNING. WINDS
QUICKLY SWITCH FROM EASTERLY, TO SOUTHERLY, TO WESTERLY BETWEEN
6-9 AM TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL SLACKEN DURING THIS WIND
SHIFT, BUT GUSTS AROUND 30 KTS RETURN AS THE WIND BECOMES
WESTERLY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR. CHANCE -SHSN/IFR. WIND W 15-25G25-35KTS.
THU...MVFR CIGS LIKELY. WIND NW 15-20G25-30KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND NW 10-15KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...ETA
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