285
FXUS63 KMPX 190319
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
919 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ACCUMULATIONS AROUND
1".
- SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE.
- MUCH COLDER LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE END OF NOVEMBER.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 917 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
THE BEST WAY TO SUM UP THIS EVENING IS IT'S NICE WHEN THE
WEATHER LISTENS TO THE FORECAST! WE'VE HAD TO MAKE VERY FEW
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST, WITH AROUND 1.25" OF RAIN
EXPECTED AREA WIDE THROUGH TONIGHT, A GOOD SOAKING RAIN!
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 205 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
THE FORECAST FOR A WET AND BLUSTERY NIGHT REMAINS ON TRACK AS A
MID-980S MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS RAPIDLY APPROACHES THE
UPPER MIDWEST. NO SURPRISES IN TERMS OF THE RAIN FORECAST, WITH
THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD AHEAD OF THE LOW ALREADY OVER SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA CONTINUING TO SPREAD NORTHWARDS THIS EVENING. MODELS
REMAIN IN CONSENSUS WITH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND
1-1.5" TONIGHT, WITH HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HIGHLIGHTING THE
CHANCE FOR ENHANCED PRECIPITATION ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA
RESULTING IN AMOUNTS CLOSER TO 1.5-2". THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN OVER THE REGION AS THE LOW APPROACHES,
WITHE EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO GUST OVER 30 MPH AS THE RAIN
APPROACHES. A FEW HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA & WESTERN
WISCONSIN, BUT THESE MODELS DEEPEN THE LOW TOWARDS 980 MB OVER
SOUTHWEST MN TONIGHT WHICH SEEMS UNLIKELY AS OF NOW. STILL, IT
WILL BE A VERY WET AND BLUSTERY NIGHT EVERYWHERE ACROSS THE AREA
SO PREPARE FOR LOWER VISIBILITY IF TRAVELING TONIGHT.
THE BAND OF RAIN AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN
MINNESOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH A LULL IN THE RAIN EXPECTED BY
TOMORROW MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHWARDS THROUGH
MINNESOTA. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE MORNING
BUT THESE WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THE RAINFALL TONIGHT. THE RAIN
TOTALLY COMES TO AN END BY NOON TOMORROW, AS THE LOW FURTHER
OCCLUDES OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA & A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT
EXPANDS OVER MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE BLUSTERY EAST WINDS
WILL SLACKEN DURING THE MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES OVER
THE AREA, BUT STRONG COLD ADVECTION ACCOMPANIES THE WESTERLY
WIND SHIFT BEHIND THE LOW, WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH AGAIN LOOKING
LIKELY BY THE AFTERNOON. AGAIN, THE A FEW OF THE OUTLIER HIGH-
RESOLUTION MODELS DEEPEN THE LOW OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA,
RESULTING IN A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONGER WINDS
OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA WHERE GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH CAN'T TOTALLY BE
RULED OUT. WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE LOOK MUCH MORE LIKELY ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS & WEST OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LOW PRESSURE TRENDS TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY, WITH THE
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S OCCURRING SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING THROUGH THE 40S BY
DAYBREAK & FURTHER INTO THE 30S AND 20S TOMORROW NIGHT. AS
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING TOMORROW NIGHT, WEAK FORCING
RETURNS FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE WRAP-AROUND REGION OF THE LOW
ADVANCES INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SNOW, BUT THE FORCING AND REMNANT MOISTURE DOESN'T LOOK ROBUST
ENOUGH FOR ANYTHING ORE THAN TRANSIENT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS FROM
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2" ARE ACROSS FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA, WHERE A
DEFORMATION BAND OF SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS & NORTHWEST MINNESOTA COULD EXTEND FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO IMPACT THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION. OTHERWISE, MAINLY A
DUSTING OF SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH BREEZY ON & OFF SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.
THE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CEASE BY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE
UPPER AIR PATTERN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM REMAINS FAIRLY QUIET
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WEAK
SYSTEMS AND SNOW CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE COLD AIR BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST, AS
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS NOTHING BUT NORMAL TO BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF NOVEMBER. LOOKING AHEAD TOWARDS
THE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL PERIOD, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN BELOW-
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, BUT LOW IN THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION AS MODELS SHOW A WIDE SPREAD IN THE OUTCOMES FOR
RAIN/SNOW CHANCES MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
GOING TAFS HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT TRENDS WITH THE
RAIN MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. WE'LL HAVE A STEADY
RAIN THROUGH 6Z, BUT AFTER 6Z, WE'LL START TO SEE MORE SHOWERY
TYPE ACTIVITY AS DRIER MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR MOVES IN FROM IOWA.
THERE'S A BIT MORE SPREAD WITH HOW QUICKLY RAIN WILL MOVE OUT IN
THE MORNING AND FOR NOW, TRENDED TAFS TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER
HRRR. CIGS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY, BUT
WILL BE SLOWLY RISING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS TOMORROW
WILL BE QUITE STRONG, WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH
OF MN DEPENDING ON JUST HOW DEEP THE SURFACE LOW ENDS UP IN
NORTHERN MN AND HOW DEEP WE MIX WITH THE CAA.
KMSP...MPX/TMSP RADAR VWPS HIGHLIGHT THE WIND SHEAR WE HAVE
MOVING IN RIGHT NOW. THIS SHEAR WILL START TO SUBSIDE AFTER 6Z.
FOR THE MOST PART, MVFR VIS IS EXPECTED WITH THE RAIN, THOUGH
OCCASIONAL HEAVIER BURSTS OF RAIN WILL RESULT IN SOME TEMPORARY
IFR VSBYS. LOOKING AT THE 21Z RAP, THERE IS POTENTIAL WE COULD
BRIEFLY SEE SKIES SCATTER OUT AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, BUT
WE HAVE A COUPLE OF TAF CYCLES TO IRON THAT POTENTIAL OUT
TUESDAY NIGHT.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR. -SN/IFR LIKELY. WIND W 10-20G25-30KTS.
THU...MVFR CIGS LIKELY. WIND NW 20-25G30-35KTS.
FRI...CHC MVFR CIGS. WIND NW 10-15KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
UPDATE...MPG
DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...MPG
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