185
FXUS63 KMPX 190816
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
216 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN ENDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS MORNING. STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS EXPECTED TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH IN MN.
- LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS IN WESTERN MN TUESDAY NIGHT AND COVERS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN
MN. MINOR TO NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
- MUCH COLDER LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE END OF NOVEMBER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 214 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN GENERALLY WHAT WAS EXPECTED ACROSS
MN, WITH MOST STATIONS REPORTING NEAR 1" TO 1.25". MSP AND STC DID
ACTUALLY BREAK THEIR DAILY RECORDS FOR PRECIPITATION WITH 0.86" AND
1.13", RESPECTIVELY. LESSER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE BEING OBSERVED
ACROSS WI DUE TO THE RAINFALL'S LOWER RESIDENCE TIME. RAIN OVER
CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHWEST WI CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH EARLY THIS
MORNING WHILE PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH BECOMES INCREASINGLY
SPARSE. THIS IS DUE TO A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WRAPPING IN COUNTER-
CLOCKWISE INTO THE SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST MN. THE VERTICAL
PROFILE IS DRYING FROM THE TOP DOWN, LEAVING BEHIND ONLY SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN TO EVENTUAL DRIZZLE. EXPECT A NORTHWARD CONTINUATION OF
THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REST OF OUR CWA INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE LOW MOVES NORTH. CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PERIODS
OF DRIZZLE WILL BE PRESENT FOR THE REST OF TODAY. THOUGH, SOME PEAKS
OF SUN ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHWEST MN WHERE GREATER DRY AIR IS
EXPECTED. OUR EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN
CLOCKWISE TO WESTERLY ONCE THE SURFACE LOW PASSES OVERHEAD. THE
WINDS WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS A
STINGER LLJ ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CYCLONE MOVES IN FROM DAKOTAS.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS ACROSS MN TO BE 20-27 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30-40
MPH, ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN MN. THE WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO CAUSE
STRONG CAA TODAY INTO TONIGHT, COOLING US FROM MID 40S TO MID 50S
THIS MORNING TO MID 30S TO MID 40S BY THIS EVENING. BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.
MEANWHILE, THE DEFORMATION BAND OF PRECIPITATION ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL ALSO MOVE SOUTH FROM NORTHWEST MN INTO
WESTERN MN TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS PRECIP WILL ALREADY BE CHANGED OVER
TO SNOW DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD AIR. CAMS THEN SHOW SNOW
SPREADING EAST OVER THE REST OF THE CWA THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY. MOST
OF THIS SNOW SHOULD BE LIGHT AND RESULT IN MINOR TO NO
ACCUMULATIONS. IN FACT, PERIODIC SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO BECOME MORE
PREVALENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE NOW
SUGGESTS A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE FOR OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN
MN COUNTIES (STEVENS, POPE, AND DOUGLAS). HERE, MODELS SHOW AN
OVERLAP OF SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT, A DEEP DGZ, AND EVEN SOME SURFACE
BASED CAPE, PARTICULARLY DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING. COMBINED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRONG WESTERLY WINDS, THE MORNING'S COMMUTE COULD BE
QUITE INTERESTING/HAZARDOUS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
IN FUTURE FORECASTS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE 30S WITH
SNOW EVENTUALLY TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE REMNANT SURFACE
LOW DISSIPATES.
THURSDAY WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY BUT STILL
BREEZY WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AS A PROLONGED COOL SPELL BEGINS TO
ESTABLISH ITSELF. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE LOWS ARE IN THE 20S. WE SHOULD ALSO
STAY DRY DURING THIS PERIOD, ASIDE FROM A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN
CENTRAL MN AND NORTHERN WI LATER SUNDAY AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES TO OUR
NORTH. BUT AFTER THAT FORECAST MODEL SPREAD WITH INDIVIDUAL WAVES
GREATLY INCREASES CAUSING LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENT WHEN LOOKING AT EPS AND GEFS
MEMBER 24-HOUR QPF AND SNOWFALL TIME SERIES PLOTS FOR MSP. MEMBERS
GENERALLY DON'T AGREE ON A CERTAIN TIME PERIOD NEXT WEEK WHEN WE
COULD SEE A GREATER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. MORE CERTAIN IS
TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO FULL ON WINTER AFTER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGS COLD, ARCTIC AIR FROM CANADA INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. IT SEEMS THE TREND FOR OUR
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS FALL WILL BE NO MORE THE LAST
WEEK OF NOVEMBER.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1057 PM CST MON NOV 18 2024
GOING TAFS STILL LOOK TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON EXPECTED TRENDS
THROUGH THE MORNING WITH THE ENDING OF PRECIP AND WIND SHIFTS
EXPECTED. CIGS WILL RISE THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY, HOW QUICKLY
THEY'LL RISE IS A BIT IN DOUBT AND WE COULD BE A BIT AGGRESSIVE
WITH IMPROVEMENTS. BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD, THERE'S MORE
UNCERTAINTY WITH WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH SKIES. NBM SHOWS SKIES
CLEARING OUT FOR MUCH OF THE MPX AREA, WITH THE RAP KEEPING THE
CLOUDS IN, BUT SENDING THEM TO VFR LEVELS. TIS THE SEASON FOR
PESKY CLOUD COVER, SO WENT THE RAP ROUTE.
KMSP...TIMING FOR THE WIND SHIFT FROM THE ESE OVER TO THE WSW
ISN'T THE GREATEST AS IT WILL BE OCCURRING DURING THE MORNING
PUSH. STEADY RAIN LIKE WE ARE SEEING NOW IS EXPECTED TO END
AROUND 8Z, BUT WE WILL SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF ON/OFF RAIN
FOLLOWING THE STEADY RAIN.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR. -SN/IFR LIKELY. WIND W 10-20G25-30KTS.
THU...MVFR CIGS LIKELY. WIND NW 20-25G30-35KTS.
FRI...CHC MVFR CIGS. WIND NW 10-15KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...MPG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page