847
FXUS63 KMPX 191242
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
642 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN ENDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS MORNING. STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS EXPECTED TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH IN MN.
- LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS IN WESTERN MN TUESDAY NIGHT AND COVERS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN
MN. MINOR TO NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
- MUCH COLDER LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE END OF NOVEMBER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 214 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN GENERALLY WHAT WAS EXPECTED
ACROSS MN, WITH MOST STATIONS REPORTING NEAR 1" TO 1.25". MSP
AND STC DID ACTUALLY BREAK THEIR DAILY RECORDS FOR PRECIPITATION
WITH 0.86" AND 1.13", RESPECTIVELY. LESSER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
BEING OBSERVED ACROSS WI DUE TO THE RAINFALL'S LOWER RESIDENCE
TIME. RAIN OVER CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHWEST WI CONTINUES TO PUSH
NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH
BECOMES INCREASINGLY SPARSE. THIS IS DUE TO A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT
WRAPPING IN COUNTER- CLOCKWISE INTO THE SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHWEST MN. THE VERTICAL PROFILE IS DRYING FROM THE TOP DOWN,
LEAVING BEHIND ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN TO EVENTUAL DRIZZLE.
EXPECT A NORTHWARD CONTINUATION OF THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
REST OF OUR CWA INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES
NORTH. CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PERIODS OF DRIZZLE
WILL BE PRESENT FOR THE REST OF TODAY. THOUGH, SOME PEAKS OF SUN
ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHWEST MN WHERE GREATER DRY AIR IS EXPECTED.
OUR EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN CLOCKWISE TO
WESTERLY ONCE THE SURFACE LOW PASSES OVERHEAD. THE WINDS WILL
ALSO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS A
STINGER LLJ ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CYCLONE MOVES IN FROM
DAKOTAS. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS ACROSS MN TO BE 20-27 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH, ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN MN. THE WESTERLY WINDS
WILL ALSO CAUSE STRONG CAA TODAY INTO TONIGHT, COOLING US FROM
MID 40S TO MID 50S THIS MORNING TO MID 30S TO MID 40S BY THIS
EVENING. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID
20S TO MID 30S.
MEANWHILE, THE DEFORMATION BAND OF PRECIPITATION ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL ALSO MOVE SOUTH FROM
NORTHWEST MN INTO WESTERN MN TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS PRECIP WILL
ALREADY BE CHANGED OVER TO SNOW DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD
AIR. CAMS THEN SHOW SNOW SPREADING EAST OVER THE REST OF THE CWA
THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THIS SNOW SHOULD BE LIGHT AND
RESULT IN MINOR TO NO ACCUMULATIONS. IN FACT, PERIODIC SNOW
SHOWERS LOOK TO BECOME MORE PREVALENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
ARE POSSIBLE FOR OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN MN COUNTIES (STEVENS,
POPE, AND DOUGLAS). HERE, MODELS SHOW AN OVERLAP OF SYNOPTIC
SCALE LIFT, A DEEP DGZ, AND EVEN SOME SURFACE BASED CAPE,
PARTICULARLY DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING. COMBINED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRONG WESTERLY WINDS, THE MORNING'S COMMUTE
COULD BE QUITE INTERESTING/HAZARDOUS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE FORECASTS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL ONLY
REACH THE 30S WITH SNOW EVENTUALLY TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE REMNANT SURFACE LOW DISSIPATES.
THURSDAY WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY BUT
STILL BREEZY WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AS A PROLONGED COOL
SPELL BEGINS TO ESTABLISH ITSELF. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
30S TO LOW 40S FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE LOWS ARE IN THE
20S. WE SHOULD ALSO STAY DRY DURING THIS PERIOD, ASIDE FROM A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN CENTRAL MN AND NORTHERN WI LATER SUNDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES TO OUR NORTH. BUT AFTER THAT FORECAST
MODEL SPREAD WITH INDIVIDUAL WAVES GREATLY INCREASES CAUSING
LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. THIS
IS ALSO EVIDENT WHEN LOOKING AT EPS AND GEFS MEMBER 24-HOUR QPF
AND SNOWFALL TIME SERIES PLOTS FOR MSP. MEMBERS GENERALLY DON'T
AGREE ON A CERTAIN TIME PERIOD NEXT WEEK WHEN WE COULD SEE A
GREATER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. MORE CERTAIN IS TEMPERATURES
DIPPING INTO FULL ON WINTER AFTER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGS COLD, ARCTIC AIR FROM CANADA INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. IT SEEMS THE TREND FOR OUR
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS FALL WILL BE NO MORE THE
LAST WEEK OF NOVEMBER.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 559 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH A MIXTURE OF MVFR-IFR CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING, WITH THE RAIN ENDING BY MIDDAY
FOLLOWED BY A SLOW IMPROVEMENT THROUGH MVFR THIS AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY FOR LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER, AS THE MAIN LOW RETROGRADES NW FROM
CENTRAL MN INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA TODAY INTO TONIGHT, DRAGGING
THE RAINFALL NORTHWARD WITH IT AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS NORTH,
THE LOW WILL DRAG DOWN MUCH COLDER AIR IN TANDEM WITH ANOTHER
SLUG OF MOISTURE WHICH WILL TAKE THE FORM OF -SHSN STARTING
AROUND SUNRISE IN WESTERN MN. THUS, FOR THE WESTERN MN SITES,
HAVE ADDED IN MVFR CONDITIONS WITH -SHSN PRIOR TO 12Z (AND AT
MSP PRIOR TO 18Z). WITH THE LOW TAKING A TREK ACROSS MN, WIND
DIRECTIONS WILL VARY FROM SITE TO SITE, ESPECIALLY AT THE START,
BUT WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY ALL BECOME WESTERLY WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO 15-25KTS GUSTING 25-35KTS FROM LATER THIS MORNING
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
KMSP...CEILINGS AROUND 1500FT WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WHILE THE RAINFALL GRADUALLY ENDS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. A FEW BURSTS OF HEAVIER RAIN WILL PUSH THROUGH
OVER THE NEXT 1-2HRS WHICH COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES BUT THE
MAIN DRIVER OF FLIGHT CONDITION WILL CONTINUE TO BE CEILINGS.
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY LATE TONIGHT (AFTER THE AFTERNOON
PUSH) THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY MORNING PUSH. HOWEVER, AS ALLUDED TO
ABOVE, A SWATH OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL DRIFT IN FROM THE NORTHWEST,
BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS (AT A MINIMUM) BACK TO MSP LATER
WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT, LESS THAN
AN INCH, BUT LIKELY CONFINED TO GRASSY AREAS DUE TO SUFFICIENTLY
WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY. WIND NW 15-20G25-35KTS.
FRI...CHC MVFR CEILINGS. WIND NW 10-15KTS.
SAT...CHC MVFR CEILINGS. WIND NW 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...JPC
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