444
FXUS63 KMPX 191742
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1142 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN ENDS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS MORNING. STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS EXPECTED TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH IN MN.
- LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS IN WESTERN MN TUESDAY NIGHT AND COVERS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY. A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN
MN. MINOR TO NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
- MUCH COLDER LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE END OF NOVEMBER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 214 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
RAINFALL AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN GENERALLY WHAT WAS EXPECTED
ACROSS MN, WITH MOST STATIONS REPORTING NEAR 1" TO 1.25". MSP
AND STC DID ACTUALLY BREAK THEIR DAILY RECORDS FOR PRECIPITATION
WITH 0.86" AND 1.13", RESPECTIVELY. LESSER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
BEING OBSERVED ACROSS WI DUE TO THE RAINFALL'S LOWER RESIDENCE
TIME. RAIN OVER CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHWEST WI CONTINUES TO PUSH
NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH
BECOMES INCREASINGLY SPARSE. THIS IS DUE TO A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT
WRAPPING IN COUNTER- CLOCKWISE INTO THE SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHWEST MN. THE VERTICAL PROFILE IS DRYING FROM THE TOP DOWN,
LEAVING BEHIND ONLY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN TO EVENTUAL DRIZZLE.
EXPECT A NORTHWARD CONTINUATION OF THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
REST OF OUR CWA INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES
NORTH. CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PERIODS OF DRIZZLE
WILL BE PRESENT FOR THE REST OF TODAY. THOUGH, SOME PEAKS OF SUN
ARE POSSIBLE IN SOUTHWEST MN WHERE GREATER DRY AIR IS EXPECTED.
OUR EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY TURN CLOCKWISE TO
WESTERLY ONCE THE SURFACE LOW PASSES OVERHEAD. THE WINDS WILL
ALSO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS A
STINGER LLJ ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CYCLONE MOVES IN FROM
DAKOTAS. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS ACROSS MN TO BE 20-27 MPH WITH
GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH, ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN MN. THE WESTERLY WINDS
WILL ALSO CAUSE STRONG CAA TODAY INTO TONIGHT, COOLING US FROM
MID 40S TO MID 50S THIS MORNING TO MID 30S TO MID 40S BY THIS
EVENING. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID
20S TO MID 30S.
MEANWHILE, THE DEFORMATION BAND OF PRECIPITATION ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL ALSO MOVE SOUTH FROM
NORTHWEST MN INTO WESTERN MN TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS PRECIP WILL
ALREADY BE CHANGED OVER TO SNOW DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD
AIR. CAMS THEN SHOW SNOW SPREADING EAST OVER THE REST OF THE CWA
THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY. MOST OF THIS SNOW SHOULD BE LIGHT AND
RESULT IN MINOR TO NO ACCUMULATIONS. IN FACT, PERIODIC SNOW
SHOWERS LOOK TO BECOME MORE PREVALENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE NOW SUGGESTS A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
ARE POSSIBLE FOR OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN MN COUNTIES (STEVENS,
POPE, AND DOUGLAS). HERE, MODELS SHOW AN OVERLAP OF SYNOPTIC
SCALE LIFT, A DEEP DGZ, AND EVEN SOME SURFACE BASED CAPE,
PARTICULARLY DURING WEDNESDAY MORNING. COMBINED WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRONG WESTERLY WINDS, THE MORNING'S COMMUTE
COULD BE QUITE INTERESTING/HAZARDOUS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE FORECASTS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL ONLY
REACH THE 30S WITH SNOW EVENTUALLY TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE REMNANT SURFACE LOW DISSIPATES.
THURSDAY WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY BUT
STILL BREEZY WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AS A PROLONGED COOL
SPELL BEGINS TO ESTABLISH ITSELF. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
30S TO LOW 40S FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE LOWS ARE IN THE
20S. WE SHOULD ALSO STAY DRY DURING THIS PERIOD, ASIDE FROM A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN CENTRAL MN AND NORTHERN WI LATER SUNDAY
AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES TO OUR NORTH. BUT AFTER THAT FORECAST
MODEL SPREAD WITH INDIVIDUAL WAVES GREATLY INCREASES CAUSING
LARGE UNCERTAINTY IN OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. THIS
IS ALSO EVIDENT WHEN LOOKING AT EPS AND GEFS MEMBER 24-HOUR QPF
AND SNOWFALL TIME SERIES PLOTS FOR MSP. MEMBERS GENERALLY DON'T
AGREE ON A CERTAIN TIME PERIOD NEXT WEEK WHEN WE COULD SEE A
GREATER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. MORE CERTAIN IS TEMPERATURES
DIPPING INTO FULL ON WINTER AFTER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BRINGS COLD, ARCTIC AIR FROM CANADA INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. IT SEEMS THE TREND FOR OUR
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS FALL WILL BE NO MORE THE
LAST WEEK OF NOVEMBER.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
PRECIPITATION HAS COME TO AN END FOR NOW. MVFR CIGS START OFF
ACROSS THE BOARD WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. LOW VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEFORE
THE RETURN OF MVFR CIGS BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. HIRES GUIDANCE
BEGINS SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA AROUND
SUNRISE AND EXPANDING EAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. BRIEF
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT KEPT THINGS VFR ON
WEDNESDAY FOR NOW. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AXN WHERE CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER FOR HEAVIER SNOW TO FALL. MVFR AND IFR VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH END OF TAF PERIOD.
KMSP... WEST WINDS WILL REMAIN STEADY WITH OCCASIONAL 30+ KT
GUSTS BEFORE DECREASING SOME OVERNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
ON WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS RAMPING UP AFTER SUNRISE.
I KEPT MSP VFR WITH RESPECT TO VISIBILITY TOMORROW GIVEN THE
SHOWERY NATURE OF THE SNOW. FUTURE UPDATES MAY TWEAK AS
NECESSARY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MVFR CIGS LIKELY. WIND NW 20-25G30-35KTS.
FRI...CHC MVFR CIGS. WIND NW 10-15KTS.
SAT...CHC MVFR CIGS. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...BPH
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