877
FXUS63 KMPX 191909
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
109 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW SPREADS EASTWARDS OVER THE
AREA OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
- ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2" EXPECTED ACROSS FAR-WESTERN MINNESOTA.
WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL LEAD TO LOW VISIBILITY AND TRAVEL
IMPACTS.
- NORMAL TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE
MONTH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
RAIN HAS COME TO AN END ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA & WESTERN
MINNESOTA EARLY AFTERNOON, AS A 985 MB SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO
PULL NORTH OF THE AREA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. A PRONOUNCED
DRY SLOT WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE
LOW CONTINUES TO OCCLUDE, MEANING WE ARE DONE WITH PRECIPITATION
UNTIL THE WRAP-AROUND REGION OF THE LOW ARRIVES OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES BEHIND
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT, WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO FALL
THROUGH THE 40S THIS AFTERNOON & EVENTUALLY BELOW FREEZING BY
TOMORROW MORNING. STRONG LOW-LEVEL MIXING FROM THE COLD
ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35-40 MPH
AT TIMES, WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNSET.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AS PRECIPITATION FROM
THE WRAP-AROUND REGION ARRIVES OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN
MINNESOTA, AND WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA &
WESTERN WISCONSIN. THE LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE MOISTURE AND
UPPER LEVEL FORCING MAINLY COMING FROM CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MEANS
OUR SNOW WILL COME LARGELY IN THE FROM OF SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS FAR-
WESTERN MINNESOTA, WHERE A DEFORMATION BAND IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS & NORTHWEST MINNESOTA &
COULD RESULT IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3" EXTENDING DOWN INTO
THE ALEXANDRIA LAKES AREA. BREEZY WEST WINDS OVER 30 MPH &
FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOW
VISIBILITY & SLICK ROADS WHERE THIS SNOW OCCURS, SO A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF FAR- WESTERN
MINNESOTA. CONDITIONS WILL BE WORST ACROSS FAR-WESTERN MINNESOTA
TOMORROW MORNING, WITH THE SNOWFALL TRANSITIONING OVER TO THE
MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BY THE AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ANYTHING MORE THAN A DUSTING OF
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA &
WESTERN WISCONSIN, ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH HEAVIER BURSTS OF SNOW DURING
THE STRONGEST SHOWERS. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE STRONGEST/MOST
WIDESPREAD DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A BIT OF INSTABILITY FROM
THE SUN, WITH THE LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNSET.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY STAY IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S
TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH THE COLD AIR MASS BEHIND TODAY'S SYSTEM
REMAINING IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL BY THE WEEKEND, MEANING WE'RE NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF WEATHER SYSTEMS ALONG WITH STEADY
& SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AROUND 40 DURING THE DAY AND IN
THE 20S AT NIGHT. THERE ARE SIGNALS TOWARDS A CLIPPER SKIRTING
ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BUT MUCH OF
THE FORCING & PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY SETUP
NORTH OF THE AREA. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN A EVEN COLDER AIRMASS ARRIVING NEXT WEEK IN TIME
FOR THANKSGIVING, WITH WELL- BELOW TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO
EARLY DECEMBER. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES
NEXT WEEK, AS MODELS WIDELY DIVERGE ON THE NUMBER AND TRACK OF
ANY POTENTIAL SYSTEMS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. CAN'T RULE OUT THE
CHANCE AT THIS POINT FOR WINTRY WEATHER SOMEWHERE IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST DURING THE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL WINDOW, BUT WE'LL HAVE TO
WAIT UNTIL CLOSER TO THIS WEEKEND FOR AN INCREASE IN ANY SORT
OF FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
PRECIPITATION HAS COME TO AN END FOR NOW. MVFR CIGS START OFF
ACROSS THE BOARD WITH CIGS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. LOW VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEFORE
THE RETURN OF MVFR CIGS BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. HIRES GUIDANCE
BEGINS SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA AROUND
SUNRISE AND EXPANDING EAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. BRIEF
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT KEPT THINGS VFR ON
WEDNESDAY FOR NOW. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AXN WHERE CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER FOR HEAVIER SNOW TO FALL. MVFR AND IFR VSBYS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH END OF TAF PERIOD.
KMSP... WEST WINDS WILL REMAIN STEADY WITH OCCASIONAL 30+ KT
GUSTS BEFORE DECREASING SOME OVERNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
ON WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS RAMPING UP AFTER SUNRISE.
I KEPT MSP VFR WITH RESPECT TO VISIBILITY TOMORROW GIVEN THE
SHOWERY NATURE OF THE SNOW. FUTURE UPDATES MAY TWEAK AS
NECESSARY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MVFR CIGS LIKELY. WIND NW 20-25G30-35KTS.
FRI...CHC MVFR CIGS. WIND NW 10-15KTS.
SAT...CHC MVFR CIGS. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...BPH
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