022
FXUS63 KMPX 200523
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1123 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY THROUGH TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW SPREADS EASTWARDS OVER THE
AREA OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
- ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2" EXPECTED ACROSS FAR-WESTERN MINNESOTA.
WIND GUSTS OVER 30 MPH WILL LEAD TO LOW VISIBILITY AND TRAVEL
IMPACTS.
- NORMAL TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE
MONTH.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
RAIN HAS COME TO AN END ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA & WESTERN
MINNESOTA EARLY AFTERNOON, AS A 985 MB SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO
PULL NORTH OF THE AREA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. A PRONOUNCED
DRY SLOT WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AS THE
LOW CONTINUES TO OCCLUDE, MEANING WE ARE DONE WITH PRECIPITATION
UNTIL THE WRAP-AROUND REGION OF THE LOW ARRIVES OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES BEHIND
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT, WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO FALL
THROUGH THE 40S THIS AFTERNOON & EVENTUALLY BELOW FREEZING BY
TOMORROW MORNING. STRONG LOW-LEVEL MIXING FROM THE COLD
ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35-40 MPH
AT TIMES, WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNSET.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AS PRECIPITATION FROM
THE WRAP-AROUND REGION ARRIVES OVERNIGHT ACROSS WESTERN
MINNESOTA, AND WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA &
WESTERN WISCONSIN. THE LACK OF ANY APPRECIABLE MOISTURE AND
UPPER LEVEL FORCING MAINLY COMING FROM CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT MEANS
OUR SNOW WILL COME LARGELY IN THE FROM OF SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS FAR-
WESTERN MINNESOTA, WHERE A DEFORMATION BAND IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS & NORTHWEST MINNESOTA &
COULD RESULT IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3" EXTENDING DOWN INTO
THE ALEXANDRIA LAKES AREA. BREEZY WEST WINDS OVER 30 MPH &
FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOW
VISIBILITY & SLICK ROADS WHERE THIS SNOW OCCURS, SO A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF FAR- WESTERN
MINNESOTA. CONDITIONS WILL BE WORST ACROSS FAR-WESTERN MINNESOTA
TOMORROW MORNING, WITH THE SNOWFALL TRANSITIONING OVER TO THE
MORE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BY THE AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO RESULT IN ANYTHING MORE THAN A DUSTING OF
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA &
WESTERN WISCONSIN, ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH HEAVIER BURSTS OF SNOW DURING
THE STRONGEST SHOWERS. THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE STRONGEST/MOST
WIDESPREAD DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A BIT OF INSTABILITY FROM
THE SUN, WITH THE LIGHT SNOW TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNSET.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY STAY IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S
TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH THE COLD AIR MASS BEHIND TODAY'S SYSTEM
REMAINING IN PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL BY THE WEEKEND, MEANING WE'RE NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF WEATHER SYSTEMS ALONG WITH STEADY
& SEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES AROUND 40 DURING THE DAY AND IN
THE 20S AT NIGHT. THERE ARE SIGNALS TOWARDS A CLIPPER SKIRTING
ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BUT MUCH OF
THE FORCING & PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY SETUP
NORTH OF THE AREA. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN A EVEN COLDER AIRMASS ARRIVING NEXT WEEK IN TIME
FOR THANKSGIVING, WITH WELL- BELOW TEMPERATURES CONTINUING INTO
EARLY DECEMBER. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES
NEXT WEEK, AS MODELS WIDELY DIVERGE ON THE NUMBER AND TRACK OF
ANY POTENTIAL SYSTEMS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. CAN'T RULE OUT THE
CHANCE AT THIS POINT FOR WINTRY WEATHER SOMEWHERE IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST DURING THE THANKSGIVING TRAVEL WINDOW, BUT WE'LL HAVE TO
WAIT UNTIL CLOSER TO THIS WEEKEND FOR AN INCREASE IN ANY SORT
OF FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CST TUE NOV 19 2024
ANY VFR CIGS SHOULD DROP TO MVFR (NEAR 2000 FEET) BY SUNRISE
THIS MORNING AS LOW-LEVEL STRATUS MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. LIGHT
SNOW WILL START AT ABOUT 09-11Z IN WESTERN MN AND SPREAD EAST
WITH TIME THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. VISIBILITIES SHOULD DROP TO AT
LEAST 5 MILES DURING LIGHT SNOW. IN FACT, FORECAST MODELS SHOW
2 PERIODS OF POTENTIALLY HEAVIER SNOW. THE FIRST DURING THIS
MORNING AND THE SECOND BEING MID-AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. HAVE ADDED TEMPO GROUPS AT MOST TERMINALS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS WITH CONDITIONS DROPPING TO IFR/LIFR. SNOW WILL
EVENTUALLY TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY EVENING. WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NORTHWESTERLY WITH SPEEDS INCREASING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES OVER MN. STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN WESTERN MN WHERE SUSTAINED VALUES WILL BE
NEAR 20 KNOTS AND GUSTS WILL BE NEAR 30 KNOTS. WINDS GRADUALLY
SLOW AS ONE GOES EAST WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS AT RNH AND EAU.
WINDS SHOULD LESSEN A BIT WEDNESDAY EVENING.
KMSP...LIGHT SNOW WILL START AROUND 13Z WITH CONDITIONS DROPPING
TO MVFR. HAVE KEPT TEMPO FROM 14-18Z FOR PERIODS OF HEAVIER SNOW
RESULTING IN IFR VISIBILITY. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE
PREVALENT DURING THE AFTERNOON SO BREAKS IN MVFR VISIBILITY ARE
POSSIBLE. HOWEVER, FORECAST MODELS DO SHOW ANOTHER CHANCE OF
HEAVIER SNOW FROM 22-02Z SO HAVE ADDED A PROB30. WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO 20-25 KNOTS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MVFR CIGS LIKELY. WIND NW 20-25G30-35KTS.
FRI...CHC MVFR CIGS. WIND NW 10-15KTS.
SAT...CHC MVFR CIGS. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR DOUGLAS-
POPE-STEVENS.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...CTG
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