725
FXUS63 KMPX 201750
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1150 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW COVERAGE WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. SLICK
TRAVEL IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WITH GUSTY WINDS.
- STRONGEST WINDS IN WESTERN MN, GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35MPH.
- QUIET WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY, WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 248 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
THE SATELLITE PRODUCTS OF CHOICE THIS MORNING INCLUDE BOTH THE
NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS RGB AS WELL AS THE DIFFERENT WATER VAPOR,
WHICH SHOW THE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE CVA FORCED EASTERN
EDGE OF THE INCOMING DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE MORE
GRADIENT/BOUNDARY FORCED WESTERN REGION. THERE IS A DEGREE OF
ROUGHNESS WITHIN THE CLOUD COVER SHOWING A SUBTLE CONVECTIVE ELEMENT
STRETCHING FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA DOWN TOWARDS THE MN/IA/SD
BORDER, WITH A COUPLE RUMBLES OF THUNDER NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
(FURTHER REINFORCED BY THE MPX 00Z SOUNDING PRODUCING A SMALL AMOUNT
OF SURFACE BASED CAPE). THE BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWING UP ON RADAR
IS CONFINED TO THE PRIMARY FORCING ALONG THE STACKED LOW THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH TODAY, CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS APPROACHING
FAR WESTERN MN. THE BEST SHOT FOR ACCUMULATIONS ON THE ORDER OF A
FEW INCHES WILL REMAIN IN WESTERN MINNESOTA, FOR THE MPX COVERAGE
AREA GENERALLY IN AND AROUND DOUGLAS, POPE, STEVENS, AND SWIFT
COUNTIES; HOWEVER WE STILL ANTICIPATE SNOW FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA TODAY, ALBEIT AT LOWER OVERALL ACCUMULATION. THE TIMING
WILL BECOME A KEY THING TO WATCH AS OVERNIGHT CAM GUIDANCE HAS
HINTED AT A FEW BANDS OF STRONGER SNOW AMIDST THE LIGHTER RATES FROM
MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING DURING PRIME COMMUTER HOURS. THE
EXPECTATION FOR MOST PEOPLE WILL STILL BE A DUSTING ON GRASSY
SURFACES WITH LIMITED SNOW STICKING TO WELL TRAVELED ROADWAYS,
HOWEVER SHOULD WE SEE A BAND PRODUCING LOWER VISIBILITY AND HIGHER
RATES EVEN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD, THIS COULD RESULT IN SLICK ROADWAYS
AND TRAVEL CHALLENGES FOR THE EVENING COMMUTE. POSITIONING THE BANDS
BECOMES THE CHALLENGE AS THERE IS NO CLEAR CONSENSUS WITHIN THE
SUITE OF GUIDANCE, WITH SOUTHERN MN FAVORED TOWARDS THE LATER
PORTIONS OF THE EVENING. THE SYSTEM ITSELF IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS
BOTH THE SURFACE LOW AND OCCLUSION ALOFT BEGIN TO POSITIVELY TILT
AND FLATTEN OUT AS THEY APPROACH THE GREAT LAKES WITH THE LIGHT SNOW
CEASING FROM LATE EVENING TO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE OTHER THING
TO LOOK OUT FOR TODAY WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF THE STRONG WINDS WE
HAVE BEEN SEEING FROM THIS SYSTEM DUE TO A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND VERTICAL MIXING FORCED BY THE MULTIPLE LAYERS OF THE SYSTEM.
GUSTS COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 35MPH IN WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA DECREASING SLIGHTLY TO 25-30MPH FOR THE TWIN CITIES AND
WESTERN WISCONSIN.
AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND MOVES EASTWARDS, PRECIPITATION WILL CEASE
BUT WINDS WILL STAY HIGHER AS THEY SHIFT NORTHWESTERLY ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE FALLING BACK ON FRIDAY AS THE
GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH THE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE EASTERN COAST OF
THE US. BY SATURDAY OUR SURFACE WINDS WILL BE QUITE WEAK WITH
PERSISTENT WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT KEEPING WEAK
SUBSIDENCE LOCKED IN PLACE, WHICH WILL ALSO KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES
LOCKED INTO THE UPPER 30S FOR HIGHS COMPARED TO NEAR 30 FOR LOWS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION WOULD POINT TOWARDS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A SYSTEM
MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA, HOWEVER FOR NOW
PREDICTABILITY IS A BIT TOO LOW FOR ANY CERTAINTY GIVEN THE NEED FOR
BETTER FORCING ALONG ANY FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AS WELL AS VERTICAL
SUPPORT FROM A LACK OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS
QUITE A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD WITH NO CLEAR CONSENSUS, AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO UNTIL WE AT LEAST GET THROUGH THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS
AND KICK OUR ARRIVING SYSTEM OUT OF THE REGION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION
THROUGH THIS EVENING. CIGS ARE GENERALLY AROUND 2000 FEET AND
ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MOSTLY MVFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
VISIBILITIES WITH THE SNOW HAVE BEEN AS LOW AS 3/4SM FOR
STATIONS, BUT HAVE MOSTLY STAYED AT MVFR/VFR. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
HEAVIER RATES COULD RESULT IN IFR OR LOWER VIS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR SEVERAL SITES, BUT IT SHOULD BE MORE OF AN
ON-AND-OFF OCCURRENCE FOR PLACES THAT DO SEE THOSE HEAVIER
BANDS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT MORE NORTHWEST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, LASTING INTO TOMORROW. GUSTS SHOULD SETTLE
DOWN OVERNIGHT, BEFORE PICKING BACK UP AGAIN TOMORROW AFTER
SUNRISE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AND EASTERN
MINNESOTA.
KMSP...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY, WITH A PERIOD OF
ON-AND-OFF IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE BETWEEN 22-02Z. THERE
COULD BE A LULL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, KEEPING VIS ABOVE 6SM,
BEFORE THE HEAVIER ROUND OF SHOW SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. SOME
RECENT MODEL TRENDS SHOW THAT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR NW WINDS TO
OVER PERFORM TOMORROW AFTERNOON, GUSTING UP TO 35-40KTS. IF
THAT REMAINS TO TREND THAT WAY, CONFIDENCE WILL INCREASE THAT WE
WILL BE ABLE TO FULLY MIX THOSE WIND SPEEDS DOWN. FOR NOW, WE
HAVE CAPPED IT JUST BELOW 30KTS FOR GUSTS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU PM...MVFR CIGS LIKELY. WIND NW 20-25G30-35KTS.
FRI...CHC MVFR CIGS. WIND NW 10-15KTS.
SAT...CHC MVFR CIGS. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
DOUGLAS-POPE-STEVENS.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAC QUI PARLE-
YELLOW MEDICINE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...BED
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