515
FXUS63 KMPX 202100
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
300 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES THROUGH THIS EVENING. SLICK TRAVEL IS
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WITH GUSTY WINDS.
- STRONGEST WINDS IN WESTERN MN, GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35MPH.
- DRY WEATHER RETURNS TOMORROW, WITH STRONGEST WINDS SHIFTING
EAST INTO WESTERN WI.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 254 PM CST WED NOV 20 2024
SNOW TOTALS HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED AT OR BELOW AN INCH THROUGH OUR
FIRST ROUND OF SNOW THIS MORNING, WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS FURTHER
NORTH AND WEST WHERE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS STILL IN PLACE.
IT CURRENTLY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6PM, BUT THAT MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE SECOND ROUND OF SNOW MOVES
SOUTHEAST. LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE KEEPS ADDITIONAL TOTALS RIGHT
AT OR BELOW 2 INCHES FOR THOSE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES, AND AT OR
BELOW 1 INCH FOR ELSEWHERE. IT IS EXPECTED THAT WELL-TRAVELED
ROADWAYS WILL LARGELY AVOID ANY ACCUMULATIONS (SIMILAR TO THIS
MORNING), BUT SLICK CONDITIONS MAY STILL DEVELOP WITH
TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THE REGION
ALREADY. THE MAIN DRIVER OF FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SECOND
PUSH OF SNOW IS POSITIVE (CYCLONIC) VORTICITY ADVECTION AS THE
LOW MOVES EAST. THESE SETUPS CAN RESULT IN SPORADIC BURSTS OF
HEAVIER RATES, WHICH IS HIGHLIGHTED BY THE LATEST SUITE OF
MODELS, FAVORING PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA. THESE HIGH RATES COMBINED WITH STRONG, GUSTY WINDS
COULD LEAD TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AT TIMES. THIS IS IMPORTANT
TO BE AWARE OF GIVEN THE TIMING TAKING PLACE DURING THE EVENING
RUSH HOUR. SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
AROUND 7 TO 8 PM, COMPLETELY MOVING OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
AS THE SURFACE LOW AND OCCLUSION ALOFT WEAKEN, THE STRONGEST FORCING
AND WINDS WILL MOVE EAST. AS A RESULT, MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE
ENTIRELY DRY TOMORROW, OUTSIDE OF A FEW LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A RETURN OF
STRONG, GUSTY WINDS, PRIMARILY OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN AND EASTERN
MINNESOTA. THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR SHOW POTENTIAL FOR 35 TO 40 MPH
WIND GUSTS TO MIX DOWN FROM 925 HPA. THESE LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN THE
LOWEST TOTALS FOR SNOWFALL SO FAR, AND ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE
TO NO BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS WITH THESE WINDS.
AN AREA OF RIDGING UPSTREAM OF THE UPPER LOW WILL HELP LEAD TO
DRIER, AND CONSISTENT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LONG
RANGE ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE
SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER THERE
IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD IN TIMING AND LOCATION. MEMBERS OF THE
GFS ENSEMBLE HAVE HIGHER AGREEMENT OF A LOW IMPACT SNOW-MAKER
MOVING THROUGH AS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT, WHILE THE EPS FAVOR A MORE
IMPACTFUL STORM MOVING THROUGH TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK
WITHOUT AS MUCH OF A SIGN FOR AN EARLY WEEK SYSTEM. ALL THAT TO
SAY, THERE IS STILL A LOT TO DECIPHER AFTER OUR CURRENT SYSTEM
DEPARTS EAST, BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A NOTION THAT AN ACTIVE
PATTERN IS LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST WED NOV 20 2024
WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE REGION
THROUGH THIS EVENING. CIGS ARE GENERALLY AROUND 2000 FEET AND
ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MOSTLY MVFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
VISIBILITIES WITH THE SNOW HAVE BEEN AS LOW AS 3/4SM FOR
STATIONS, BUT HAVE MOSTLY STAYED AT MVFR/VFR. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
HEAVIER RATES COULD RESULT IN IFR OR LOWER VIS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR SEVERAL SITES, BUT IT SHOULD BE MORE OF AN
ON-AND-OFF OCCURRENCE FOR PLACES THAT DO SEE THOSE HEAVIER
BANDS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT MORE NORTHWEST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, LASTING INTO TOMORROW. GUSTS SHOULD SETTLE
DOWN OVERNIGHT, BEFORE PICKING BACK UP AGAIN TOMORROW AFTER
SUNRISE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN AND EASTERN
MINNESOTA.
KMSP...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY, WITH A PERIOD OF
ON-AND-OFF IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE BETWEEN 22-02Z. THERE
COULD BE A LULL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, KEEPING VIS ABOVE 6SM,
BEFORE THE HEAVIER ROUND OF SHOW SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. SOME
RECENT MODEL TRENDS SHOW THAT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR NW WINDS TO
OVER PERFORM TOMORROW AFTERNOON, GUSTING UP TO 35-40KTS. IF
THAT REMAINS TO TREND THAT WAY, CONFIDENCE WILL INCREASE THAT WE
WILL BE ABLE TO FULLY MIX THOSE WIND SPEEDS DOWN. FOR NOW, WE
HAVE CAPPED IT JUST BELOW 30KTS FOR GUSTS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU PM...MVFR CIGS LIKELY. WIND NW 20-25G30-35KTS.
FRI...CHC MVFR CIGS. WIND NW 10-15KTS.
SAT...CHC MVFR CIGS. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
DOUGLAS-POPE-STEVENS.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LAC QUI PARLE-
YELLOW MEDICINE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BED
AVIATION...BED
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