921
FXUS63 KMPX 222056
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
256 PM CST FRI NOV 22 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- A SLIGHT WARM UP IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND BEFORE A MORE
WINTER- LIKE AIRMASS MOVES IN FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY AND
BEYOND.
- OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
PRIMARILY FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN. OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS APPEAR TO BE ON
THE HORIZON.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST FRI NOV 22 2024
THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA IS STUCK UNDER A DECK OF
STUBBORN STRATUS THAT EXTENDS DOWN THROUGH CENTRAL MISSOURI AND
EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. MEANWHILE, THE WESTERN HALF OF
MINNESOTA IS ENJOYING A PARTLY SUNNY BUT CHILLY FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 30S. THE AFOREMENTIONED STRATUS HAS
MIGRATED EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BUT ANY
CLEARING WILL BE SHORT LIVED. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO FILL IN OVERNIGHT AREA WIDE WITH PERSISTENT OVERCAST/MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DESPITE THE GLOOMY SKIES, WEEKEND TEMPERATURES WILL BE PLEASANT
BY LATE NOVEMBER STANDARDS, ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY. STRONG WAA
WILL SEND HIGHS INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S, SOME 5-7 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. WITH THIS WAA WILL COME WITH AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AHEAD OF A TROUGH PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA
AND A WEAK SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTH. WHILE THESE TWO FEATURES
WILL BE FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE MPX FORECAST AREA THAT WE WILL
MISS OUT ON THE MAIN PRECIP SHOW, THERE'S A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SINCE SUNDAY WILL BE
WARM/ABOVE FREEZING, ANYTHING THAT DOES FALL WILL DO SO AS RAIN.
OVERNIGHT, A TRANSITION TO RAIN/SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR FREEZING BY MONDAY MORNING. CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN WILL SEE THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP, BUT EVEN SO AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL WITH QPF COMING IN
AT ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STAY AT OR BELOW FREEZING FROM MONDAY
EVENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. WE WILL SEE OUR FIRST
TRUE TASTE OF WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN
THE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS BY MIDWEEK. THE COLDEST PORTION OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL ARRIVE JUST AFTER THE THANKSGIVING
HOLIDAY AND LAST INTO THE BEGINNING OF DECEMBER. THE 6-10 DAY
CPC TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK HIGHLIGHTS THIS AS WELL. PRECIP WISE, A
CLIPPER ON THANKSGIVING INTO FRIDAY MAY BRING OUR NEXT CHANCE
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS POINT
IN TIME. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON THE PERSISTENCE OF
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER FROM THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK. IT
MAY NOT BE UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND THAT WE FINALLY SEE SOME TRUE
SUNSHINE AS THIS COLD AND DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS TAKES HOLD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST FRI NOV 22 2024
STRATUS WILL BE OUR PROBLEM THIS PERIOD. UNDER THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS IN WESTERN MN, THIS STRATUS HAS GONE AWAY, BUT THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK HAS STAYED PARKED ALL MORNING AND WITH
THAT SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVING LITTLE THROUGH TONIGHT, THE
STRATUS DECK WILL BE STUBBORN TO MOVE EAST AS WELL. FOR WHERE
STRATUS IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE, RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
THIN MOISTURE LAYER REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. LOOKING AT WINDS, THEY WILL REMAIN LIGHT UNTIL
SATURDAY NIGHT THIS LIMITED MIXING WILL MAKE IT THAT MUCH HARDER
TO PUSH THE STRATUS OUT. ANOTHER BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IS THAT THE
WEST EDGE OF THE STRATUS WILL LIKELY DEVOLVE INTO DENSE FOG
OVERNIGHT. THIS WOULD PUT STC AND MKT IN THE FOG ZONE. FOR STC,
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A THICK LAYER OF MID/UPPER CLOUDS MOVING
IN TONIGHT, BUT THAT'S NOT THE CASE FOR MKT, SO TRENDED THE MKT
TAF IN THE FOG DIRECTION FOR TONIGHT. IN THE END, YOU CAN SUM
UP THESE TAFS AS PESSIMISTIC (OUTSIDE OF AXN/RWF) AND SIMPLE.
KMSP...THIS TIME OF YEAR, THE SAFEST THING TO DO WHEN IN STRATUS
IS TO KEEP THAT STRATUS GOING. GIVEN THE MOIST LAYER REMAINING
IN THE RAP SOUNDINGS AND THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE CLEARING, WE
LEFT THE STRATUS IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT. IN FACT, WE MAY NOT
START SEEING ENOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW TO START PUSHING THE STRATUS
OUT OF HERE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT... KEPT THE HEIGHTS CONSISTENT,
THOUGH THERE IS CONCERNS WE COULD SEE THE CLOUD DECK LOWER TO
IFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WIND SE 5-10KTS.
MON...VFR/MVFR, CHC -RASN. WIND NW 10-15G20KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DYE
AVIATION...MPG
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