515
FXUS63 KMPX 090902
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
302 AM CST THU JAN 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TODAY, LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN AN INCH. THIS WILL BE A LOW IMPACT
EVENT, HOWEVER A FEW SLICK SPOTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING COMMUTE.
- LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
IN ANOTHER LIGHT SNOW EVENT, FOLLOWED BY COLDER AIR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 216 AM CST THU JAN 9 2025
TODAY...EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AN AREA OF COLD
CLOUDS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS, WITH RADAR AND SURFACE OBS DEPICTING
AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SLOWLY DRIFTING EASTWARD. THIS WILL BE OUR
WEATHER-MAKER LATER TODAY. NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. SNOWFALL CHANCES WERE AT AROUND 80%, AND DID
TICK UPWARD A BIT TO 90%. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DID DECREASE ABOUT A
TENTH OF AN INCH, WITH ALL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE REGION NOW
EXPECTING LESS THAN AN INCH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID-20S, AND WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY
LIGHT AS THE SNOWFALLS ALONG THE SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH, SO DID
GO OUT ON A LIMB AND MESSAGE THAT THIS SHOULD BE A LOW-IMPACT
EVENT. OF COURSE ANY SNOW LEADS TO SLICK ROADS AND SLOW TRAVEL,
BUT THE LIGHT AMOUNTS TOGETHER WITH THE DRIER NATURE OF THE SNOW
SHOULD KEEP THE IMPACTS LESS THAN OTHER LIGHT SNOW EVENTS FROM
EARLIER THIS WINTER. IN THE WAKE OF THE SNOW, NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE, AND HIRES MODELS SHOW SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
WITH THE MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION, SO DID ADD FLURRIES OR
SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.
FRIDAY...MAIN ITEM OF NOTE HERE WAS TO ADD SOME FLURRIES IN THE
AFTERNOON, SINCE ANY CLOUDS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD BE IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE, SO IT WON'T TAKE MUCH TO GET A FEW
FLAKES.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MAIN CHANGE HERE WAS THAT SNOWFALL
CHANCES HAVE AGAIN INCREASED, WITH MOST LOCATIONS NOW WITH AN
80% CHANCE OF SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THESE COULD TREND
HIGHER, BUT THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT THE SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE REGION, AND THIS WOULD KEEP THE BEST FORCING
AND MOISTURE NORTH OF I-94. FOR THAT REASON, DIDN'T GO HIGHER
WITH POPS, BUT THE OVERALL MESSAGE REMAINS THE SAME THAT YOU
SHOULD EXPECT SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND.
AS FOR AMOUNTS, FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE, SO ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL LIFT ISN'T THAT
STRONG, THERE SHOULD BE SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT, FLUFFY SNOW
FALLING. BY THE TIME THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT ON SUNDAY, SOME
LOCATIONS COULD PICK UP A COUPLE TO AS MANY AS 3 INCHES OF SNOW.
THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS CLOSER TO THAT 1-2 INCH RANGE.
ONE OTHER ITEM OF NOTE FOR SUNDAY IS THE INCREASING WINDS AS THE
SYSTEM DEPARTS. DID BUMP THESE UP FROM THE BLENDED GUIDANCE, AND
ADDED A MENTION OF BLOWING SNOW FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS GIVEN THE MEAGER SNOW DEPTH, BUT
COULD SEE SOME MINOR DRIFTING ACROSS ROADWAYS.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES COOL OFF IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SYSTEM. BY MONDAY MORNING EXPECT WIND CHILLS OF -25 TO -15
DEGREES, WHICH IS WARMER THAN ANY ADVISORY, BUT STILL PRETTY
COLD. THESE WINDS DECREASE ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST, KEEPING THE REGION DRY THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST WED JAN 8 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HOLD UNTIL ABOUT 12Z
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
MVFR CIGS/VIS WITH A QUICK HIT OF LIGHT SNOW AND A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY. BRIEF BOUTS OF IFR CIGS/VIS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. ONCE THE FRONT HAS PASSED,
MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT SOME
ADDITIONAL FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z. WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT COULD GUST TO AROUND 20KTS ACROSS WESTERN
MINNESOTA.
KMSP...TIMING FOR SNOW STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK FROM ROUGHLY
19Z-22Z. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE AFTER 03Z, BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...MVFR EARLY, THEN VFR. WIND NW 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. IFR/SN LIKELY OVERNIGHT. WIND S 5-10KTS.
SUN...MVFR/IFR/SN LIKELY IN MRNG. WIND NW 10-15G25KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...DYE
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