734
FXUS63 KMPX 100858
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
258 AM CST FRI JAN 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SMALL CHANCE FOR FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TODAY.
- A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING THE RETURN OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A FEW INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION ARE LIKELY IN SPOTS.
- MUCH COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH SUB-ZERO LOWS EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 258 AM CST FRI JAN 10 2025
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO SHROUD THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS
MORNING. A WARM SECTOR OF SORTS HAS PUSHED INTO MINNESOTA WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 20S WEST OF I-35. A COLD
FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN MN WILL SLIDE SOUTH THIS MORNING WHICH
WILL BRING STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.
OBSERVATIONS TO THE NORTH INDICATE SOME FLURRIES ARE FALLING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FARTHER SOUTH BECOME BETTER SATURATED AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES WITH OCCASIONAL FLURRIES BECOMING LIKELY WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MOISTURE DEEPENS ENOUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN MN
FOR A TIME LATER THIS MORNING TO SUPPORT A CHANCE OF STEADIER
SNOW AND MINOR ACCUMULATION (A TENTH OR TWO) POSSIBLE. THE COLD
FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS IA AND NORTHERN IL TONIGHT.
EYES THEN TURN TO THE CLIPPER WE'VE BEEN WATCHING FOR THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS FOR LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. NOT MUCH
CHANGE WITH THIS FEATURE. THE LOW WILL TRACK FROM CENTRAL ND TO
SOUTHERN MN BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING. OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE, WITH POCKETS OF STEADIER SNOW POSSIBLE
NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY SUNDAY, STRATUS
AND SATURATION REMAINING IN THE DGZ MAY CONTINUE THE OCCASIONAL
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING, BEFORE
COLDER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. TOTAL QPF
OF ONE TO TWO TENTHS IS A VERY GOOD BET PER ALMOST UNIVERSAL
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT, WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS LIKELY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-94. LIGHT WINDS AND A DEEP DGZ WOULD SUPPORT BETTER
THAN AVERAGE SNOW RATIOS, ALTHOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT ISN'T
PARTICULARLY NOTEWORTHY. WE SHOULD SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES AREA WIDE.
A BLAST OF COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND THIS ONE
COULD BE COLDER THAN THE LAST DUE TO SOME SNOW FINALLY ON THE
GROUND. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS COULD MEAN SOME OF THE
TYPICALLY COLDER LOCATIONS MAY DROP EVEN LOWER, BUT THE LIGHT
WIND WILL ALSO HINDER DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS FROM DEVELOPING.
BY MIDWEEK, THE TROUGH WILL EXIT AND A MILD PACIFIC AIRMASS WILL
QUICKLY MOVE IN. HIGHS BY THURSDAY SHOULD REACH THE 30S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CST THU JAN 9 2025
SNOW HAS ENDED AT ALL SITES AND, ASIDE FROM SOME OCCASIONAL
INSIGNIFICANT FLURRIES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, NO ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN THIS DURATION. THUS, VISIBILITIES
HAVE RETURNED TO AND WILL REMAIN WITHIN VFR LEVELS BUT CEILINGS
ARE THE MAIN ISSUE IN THIS DURATION. MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE
FAIRLY PREVALENT FOR ALL SITES (EXCEPT POTENTIALLY AXN) THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING GOING INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY COME FROM THE NORTHWEST AT SPEEDS
UNDER 10KTS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN GO LIGHT/VARIABLE
FRIDAY EVENING.
KMSP...MVFR CEILINGS LIKELY OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH CLEARING SKIES THEREAFTER.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. IFR/SN OVERNIGHT. WIND S 5-10KTS.
SUN...MVFR/IFR/SN EARLY. WIND NW 10-15G25KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND NW 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...JPC
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