695
FXUS63 KMPX 101725
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1125 AM CST FRI JAN 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SMALL CHANCE FOR FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TODAY.
- A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING THE RETURN OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A FEW INCHES OF
ACCUMULATION ARE LIKELY IN SPOTS.
- MUCH COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH SUB-ZERO LOWS EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 258 AM CST FRI JAN 10 2025
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO SHROUD THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS
MORNING. A WARM SECTOR OF SORTS HAS PUSHED INTO MINNESOTA WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 20S WEST OF I-35. A COLD
FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN MN WILL SLIDE SOUTH THIS MORNING WHICH
WILL BRING STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.
OBSERVATIONS TO THE NORTH INDICATE SOME FLURRIES ARE FALLING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FARTHER SOUTH BECOME BETTER SATURATED AS THE
FRONT APPROACHES WITH OCCASIONAL FLURRIES BECOMING LIKELY WITHIN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MOISTURE DEEPENS ENOUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN MN
FOR A TIME LATER THIS MORNING TO SUPPORT A CHANCE OF STEADIER
SNOW AND MINOR ACCUMULATION (A TENTH OR TWO) POSSIBLE. THE COLD
FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS IA AND NORTHERN IL TONIGHT.
EYES THEN TURN TO THE CLIPPER WE'VE BEEN WATCHING FOR THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS FOR LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. NOT MUCH
CHANGE WITH THIS FEATURE. THE LOW WILL TRACK FROM CENTRAL ND TO
SOUTHERN MN BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING. OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE, WITH POCKETS OF STEADIER SNOW POSSIBLE
NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY SUNDAY, STRATUS
AND SATURATION REMAINING IN THE DGZ MAY CONTINUE THE OCCASIONAL
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING, BEFORE
COLDER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. TOTAL QPF
OF ONE TO TWO TENTHS IS A VERY GOOD BET PER ALMOST UNIVERSAL
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT, WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS LIKELY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-94. LIGHT WINDS AND A DEEP DGZ WOULD SUPPORT BETTER
THAN AVERAGE SNOW RATIOS, ALTHOUGH FORCING FOR ASCENT ISN'T
PARTICULARLY NOTEWORTHY. WE SHOULD SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES AREA WIDE.
A BLAST OF COLDER AIR WILL FOLLOW EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND THIS ONE
COULD BE COLDER THAN THE LAST DUE TO SOME SNOW FINALLY ON THE
GROUND. HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS COULD MEAN SOME OF THE
TYPICALLY COLDER LOCATIONS MAY DROP EVEN LOWER, BUT THE LIGHT
WIND WILL ALSO HINDER DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS FROM DEVELOPING.
BY MIDWEEK, THE TROUGH WILL EXIT AND A MILD PACIFIC AIRMASS WILL
QUICKLY MOVE IN. HIGHS BY THURSDAY SHOULD REACH THE 30S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST FRI JAN 10 2025
THE STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO PRODUCE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SNOW
SHOWERS WHICH SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY FLURRIES WITH LITTLE
IMPACT TO VISIBILITY AND LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. FLURRIES
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH AROUND 00-02Z ACROSS MOST SITES AS THE
FORCING DEPARTS, AT WHICH POINT WE WILL SCATTER OUT WITH CLOUD
BASES REMAINING 070-100. THE END OF THE PERIOD REMAINS DRY FOR
NOW AS THE NEXT ROUND OF SNOWFALL ARRIVES AFTER THE PERIOD,
HOWEVER WE WILL SEE CIGS RETURNING AND SLOWLY LOWERING BY 18Z ON
THE 11TH. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT
BEFORE SHIFTING TOWARDS 120-150 AT 06-08KTS BY 18Z TOMORROW.
KMSP...THE MAIN CONSIDERATION FOR THE TAF AND FUTURE AMENDMENTS
WILL BE HOW LONG IFR/MVFR PERSIST WITH AN APPROXIMATE RETURN TO
VFR AS THINGS SCATTER OUT SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. WE WILL SEE CIGS
RETURN BUT REMAIN VFR UNTIL SNOW ARRIVES AFTER THE END OF THE
30HR PERIOD TOMORROW, AT WHICH POINT WE RETURN TO MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VIS WITH THE SNOW THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...IFR/MVFR/-SN EARLY. WIND NW 10-15KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND NW 10-15KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...TDH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page