867
FXUS63 KMPX 102330
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
530 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW & FLURRIES CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
ARE LIKELY IN SPOTS.
- MUCH COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH SUB-ZERO LOWS EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 155 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2025
REGIONAL RADAR HIGHLIGHTS SEVERAL AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON. THE CULPRIT IS A VORTICITY LOBE THAT
IS MOVING ACROSS MINNESOTA AND INTO WISCONSIN. THE FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORT LOBE HAS RESULTED IN A FAIRLY STEADY LIGHT
SNOW SO FAR TODAY VERSUS FLURRIES. THIS HAS RESULTED IN LIGHT
ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE AREA WITH MSP OFFICIALLY COMING IN AT 0.2"
OF NEW SNOW AS OF NOON. THE MPX 12Z RAOB HIGHLIGHTS A SHALLOW
BUT SATURATED DGZ IN THE LOWEST 5K FEET THAT HAS SUPPORTED THE
LIGHT SNOW. THE STEADIER SNOW SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR SE WITH A FEW
FLURRIES STICKING AROUND THROUGH EVENING.
OUR ATTENTION SHIFTS TO SATURDAY & SUNDAY AS A HEALTHY WAVE IS
PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING A
BROAD AREA OF 1 TO 3" OF SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO WESTERN
WISCONSIN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A LIGHT COATING UP TO AN INCH CANNOT
BE RULED OUT FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA, BUT THE BEST ODDS
WILL BE FURTHER NORTH. ONE INTERESTING TREND IS GUIDANCE ATTEMPT TO
SHIFT THE QPF AXIS FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA. I'M
NOT CONFIDENT THIS WILL VERIFY SO I'VE OPTED TO KEEP 60 TO 80+ POPS
IN THE GRIDS DESPITE THIS. I'VE ALSO MAINTAINED A SIMILAR SNOW
FORECAST AS TO THE MIDSHIFT GIVEN THIS SHIFT IN SOME HIRES GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO BE OVERDONE & LIKELY DUE TO BIAS. I LEANED ON A CONCEPTUAL
BLEND OF THE 12Z HI-RES CANADIAN/ICON/ECWMF TO TWEAK THE FORECAST
GRIDS TO BE REPRESENTATIVE. A GENERAL 0.10 TO 0.20" OF QPF SEEMS
REASONABLE WITH 15 TO 18:1 SLRS. THIS WOULD SUPPORT A 1 TO 3" EVENT
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94 CORRIDOR AND 1 TO 2" SOUTH WITH LESSER IN
S/W MN. A FEW LOCALIZED TOTALS IN THE 3 TO 4" RANGE CAN'T BE RULED
OUT ACROSS CENTRAL MN WHERE THE BEST COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND
FORCING MESH UP. THIS SYSTEM DOESN'T HAVE A TON OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH SO THE CEILING ISN'T AS HIGH AS SOME OF YOU WOULD WISH FOR.
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ARRIVE BEHIND OUR WEEKEND SYSTEM. THIS WILL
HELP USHER IN ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR TO START THE WORK WEEK.
LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DIP BELOW ZERO AND HIGHS STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT
OF THE SINGLE DIGITS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AREAS WITH FRESH SNOW PACK
MAY EVEN TREND A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON THE OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, ALL GOOD THINGS MUST COME TO AN END AND AS
AN IMPRESSIVE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BUILDS NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD US TO ENJOY A BRIEF WARM UP BEFORE A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES FOR NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND TO NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 20S TO MID 30S NEXT THURSDAY & FRIDAY. BEYOND THAT, GUIDANCE
SUGGEST WE'LL REPLACE THE WESTERN RIDGE WITH AN ALASKAN RIDGE
THAT'LL HELP DISLODGE ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR FOR NEXT
WEEKEND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK. THANKFULLY, NO SUSTAINED WARM
UPS ARE IN SIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST FRI JAN 10 2025
LOW VFR TO HIGH MVFR CEILINGS WITH SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
THIS EVENING. AFTER THE SHOWERS CLEAR, VFR CEILINGS WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SNOW MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT AIRPORTS
ALONG/NORTH OF I-94 IN MINNESOTA AXN, STC, AND MSP. SNOW CHANCES
WILL EXPAND INTO WISCONSIN, BUT THESE CHANCES ARE MOST LIKELY IN
THE 06Z TAFS LAST HOURS. MVFR VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS EXPECTED AS
THIS SNOW MOVES THROUGH. CHANCE FOR SEEING IFR AT AXN WHERE SOME
HEAVIER SNOW IS POSSIBLE. ONCE WINDS PICK UP FROM LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THEY WILL HAVE SHIFTED FROM THE CURRENT
NORTHERLY WINDS TO THE SOUTH.
KMSP... SNOW FLURRIES TO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL RETURN THIS
EVENING, BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR VISIBILITY. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN
RIGHT AROUND THE VFR/MVFR THRESHOLD. SNOW CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN
TOMORROW EVENING INTO TOMORROW NIGHT. THE HEAVIER SNOW CHANCES
WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINAL AREA, SO MVFR IMPACTS MOST
LIKELY IN THE SNOW.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...IFR/MVFR/-SN EARLY. WIND NW 10-20 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND NW 10-20 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND W 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...NDC
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