715
FXUS63 KMPX 111841
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1241 PM CST SAT JAN 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE REGION LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ASIDE FROM SOUTHERN MN, MOST OF THE AREA
WILL SEE AT LEAST 1-2" OF SNOW, WITH 3-4" POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL
MN.
- GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY SHOULD LEAD TO BLOWING
SNOW AND POSSIBLE TRAVEL IMPACTS IN WEST-CENTRAL MN.
- MUCH COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH SUB-ZERO LOWS EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 305 AM CST SAT JAN 11 2025
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AROUND OUR MN CWA SHOW LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING TO
LINGER EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE FLURRIES ARE MOSTLY COSMETIC AND
HAVE ADDED A LIGHT FROSTING TO OUR OTHERWISE BARREN GROUND. THE
FALLING ICE CRYSTALS SHOULD BRIEFLY PAUSE FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW BEGINS IN WESTERN MN MID-MORNING. A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST, CAUSING WEAK WAA AHEAD OF IT AND
THE FORMATION OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR THE MN/DAKOTAS BORDER. ALL
OF THESE FACTORS COMBINED WILL CAUSE THE LIGHT SNOW THAT WILL SLOWLY
SPREAD EAST ACROSS MN DURING SATURDAY AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST. AS
WE HEAD INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, A SECOND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE FROM THE
HUDSON BAY WILL SAG SOUTH, ACTING TO REINFORCE/STRENGTHEN THE FIRST
WAVE THROUGH CAA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
OF SNOW AND SLIGHTLY HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES (MAINLY FROM
CENTRAL/NORTH-CENTRAL MN AND INTO WI) SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE EAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH
THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP EXITING BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER,
CAMS AND A VERY DEEP, RELATIVELY SATURATED DGZ IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW A GOOD SIGNAL FOR WRAP-AROUND LIGHT SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SYSTEM. THUS, HAVE CONTINUED 20-40% POPS ACROSS OUR WI COUNTIES
THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FOR STORM TOTAL QPF, GUIDANCE
MOSTLY AGREES ON A SWATH OF 0.1-0.25" OF LIQUID SPANNING WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA. THE HEAVIEST QPF AMOUNTS
LOOK TO FALL ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94. WITH SNOWFALL RATIOS AT
MINIMUM BEING CLIMATOLOGY AND APPROACHING 20:1 BY THE TIME THE
SYSTEM EXITS, SNOW TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM ABOUT 1-2" SOUTH OF I-94
INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MN, TO 2-3+" NORTH OF I-94. IN FACT, OUR NORTH-
CENTRAL MN COUNTIES COULD EVEN SEE AMOUNTS APPROACHING 4". IN
ADDITION TO THE FALLEN SNOW, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL
INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM EXITS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL MN. COMBINED WITH THE FLUFFY NATURE OF THE SNOW, THIS
HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF LEADING TO BLOWING SNOW AND POTENTIALLY
HAZARDOUS TRAVEL FROM REDUCED VISIBILITY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR NORTH-CENTRAL MN COUNTIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY FOR THE INCREASED LIKELIHOOD OF ACCUMULATING AND BLOWING
SNOW.
ONCE THE SNOW EXITS SUNDAY EVENING, THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK HAS A
HIGH CHANCE AT BEING DRY. INSTEAD, THE MOST NOTABLE THING ABOUT THE
FORECAST NEXT WEEK WE'LL EXPERIENCE WILL BE THE ROLLER COASTER
TEMPERATURES. VERY COLD AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FOLLOWING THE WEEKEND SYSTEM AND REMAIN WITH US THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO EXCEED
SINGLE DIGITS WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP BELOW ZERO. NEGATIVE
SINGLE DIGITS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT WITH STILL RELATIVELY
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WIND CHILLS WILL REACH INTO THE
-20S IN WESTERN TO CENTRAL MN. TEMPERATURES DIP EVEN COLDER MONDAY
NIGHT WITH NEGATIVE TEENS LIKELY FOR THE SAME REGION, BUT LESSENING
WINDS WILL HELP KEEP WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE -20S. THOUGH, WE CLOUD
TREND COLDER IN FUTURE FORECASTS IF SKIES CAN CLEAR MORE WITH A
FRESH SNOWPACK.
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO SWING THE OTHER DIRECTION BY MID-WEEK AS UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGING THAT WILL BUILD OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BEGINS TO
PUSH EAST. GUIDANCE CURRENTLY HAS US REBOUNDING SO MUCH THAT WE
COULD SEE WIDESPREAD 30S HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BUT, LONG-RANGE
GUIDANCE DOESN'T SHOW THE WARMUP LASTING TOO LONG AS MODELS WANT TO
BUILD AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WOULD SEND COLD, ARCTIC AIR FROM THE CANADIAN NORTHWEST
INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS (INCLUDES THE NORTHERN PLAINS).
THUS, THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR THE RETURN OF WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND. AS FOR PRECIPITATION, LONG-RANGE
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO BE PESSIMISTIC ABOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOW
STORMS INTO THE END OF JANUARY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CST SAT JAN 11 2025
MOSTLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN AS SNOW MOVES IN
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE WORST CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO RIDE
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94, BUT AREAS TO THE SOUTH WILL STILL
LIKELY SEE LIGHT SNOW LINGER THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY STAY AROUND 8 TO 12 KTS OUT OF THE SE, AND THEN
BECOME MORE VARIABLE AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS THROUGH CENTRAL
MN AND WESTERN WI. THE LOW WILL PROGRESS EAST OUT OF THE REGION
BY TOMORROW MORNING, AND WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NW.
WHILE SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY TOMORROW MORNING,
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MAY LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING WHILE
THE LOW-LEVEL STRATUS IS STILL OVERHEAD.
KMSP...REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS AREAS OVER CENTRAL MN BECOMING
SATURATED ENOUGH FOR THE VIRGA TO TURN INTO SNOW SHOWERS. THIS
TONGUE OF MOISTURE IS TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH IN MODEL RUNS,
POTENTIALLY REACHING MSP THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
ON HOW HEAVY THE SNOWFALL RATES WOULD BE IF THAT TONGUE DOES
REACH MSP, BUT IFR VIS DOES LOOK POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS.
FOLLOWING THE INITIAL BURST OF MODERATE SNOW, LIGHTER SNOWFALL
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING. AS THE SYSTEM EXITS
TOMORROW, AND STRONGER BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ON THE
NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW. THAT WOULD LIKELY PLACE IT ABOUT 50
TO 100 MILES NORTH OF MSP, BUT THERE IS STILL ROOM FOR THAT TO
SHIFT SOUTH AND IMPACT THE TERMINAL. IF THAT WERE TO HAPPEN,
THAT LIKELY LEAD TO RATES AROUND 0.25"/HOUR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF RATES DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND
TOMORROW MORNING, WE ARE EXPECTING THE FORECAST TO BE DYNAMIC
AND HAVE FREQUENT UPDATES.
FOR THE WINDS OVERNIGHT, WE ARE EXPECTING A GRADUAL SHIFT TO
MORE WESTERLY FROM 06Z TO 09Z. THEN A MORE DRAMATIC SHIFT
TURNING MORE NW FROM 09Z TO 12Z. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 MPH BY THE AFTERNOON.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN PM...IFR/MVFR/-SN EARLY. WIND NW 10-20G25-35 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND NW 10-20 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND W 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM CST
SUNDAY FOR DOUGLAS-POPE-STEARNS-STEVENS-TODD.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON CST
SUNDAY FOR BENTON-KANABEC-MILLE LACS-MORRISON.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...BED
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