188
FXUS63 KMPX 111958
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
158 PM CST SAT JAN 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LONG DURATION CLIPPER SYSTEM TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. 2-5" OF SNOW EXPECTED NORTH
OF I-94 IN MN, WITH 1-3" ALONG THE I-94 CORRIDOR (INCLUDING
THE TC METRO). LOWER AMOUNTS IN SOUTHERN MN.
- GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SUNDAY WILL PROMOTE BLOWING SNOW AND
POSSIBLE TRAVEL IMPACTS PRIMARILY ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MN.
- MUCH COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH LOWS SET TO FALL BELOW ZERO.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 149 PM CST SAT JAN 11 2025
SATURDAY AFTERNOON MESOANALYSIS REVEALS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
POSITIONED OVER THE BORDER BETWEEN THE DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA. A ~1000MB
SURFACE LOW IS FURTHER WEST, CENTERED ALONG THE NORTH/SOUTH DAKOTA
BORDERS. GIVEN THAT THE MID-LEVEL JET STREAK IS POSITIONED ON THE
WESTERN FLANK OF THE SURFACE LOW, WE EXPECT THE SURFACE SYSTEM
TO DIG TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO TONIGHT. EVENTUALLY, THE SURFACE
LOW WILL FOLLOW THE REGION OF WARM ADVECTION (CURRENTLY OVER
CENTRAL MINNESOTA) AND PIVOT NORTHEAST INTO WISCONSIN SUNDAY.
THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A SWATH OF SNOW
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK, HOWEVER AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY LESSEN SOUTH/WEST OF THE LOW GIVEN THE
INFLUENCE OF A DRY SLOT.
INITIAL WARM ADVECTIVE BAND OF SNOWFALL HAS DROPPED VISIBILITY BELOW
A MILE ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN MN SITES AND WE EXPECT THIS BAND TO
TRANSLATE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE "MAIN EVENT" IS CAPTURED
ON REGIONAL MRMS DISPLAY OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA. POPS CLIMB ABOVE 80% AS THE SURFACE LOW DRAWS
APPROACHES, WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ON
DECK FROM WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG AND
NEAR I-94 IN WESTERN WISCONSIN. WE'VE CONTINUED TO HEAVILY
FAVOR QPF TRENDS FROM THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE OUTPUT AS OPPOSED TO
RUN TO RUN SHIFTS FROM INDIVIDUAL CAM SOLUTIONS. IN DOING THIS,
OUR QPF EXPECTATIONS HAVE NOT CHANGED TOO MUCH THIS FORECAST
CYCLE. LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-94 IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA CONTINUE TO
RUN THE WETTEST, WITH 0.2"+ QPF AMOUNTS APPEARING LIKELY.
0.1-0.2" LIQUID PRECIPITATION REMAINS THE STORY FOR COMMUNITIES
ALONG I-94 (INCLUDING THE TC METRO). FURTHER SOUTH, ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST
OF THE MINNESOTA RIVER. THE CHARACTER OF THE WARM ADVECTIVE SNOW
THIS AFTERNOON WILL RUN CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY (SLR OF 13:1).
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL START IN THE 15:1
RANGE AND INCREASE TO ~20:1 SRL'S GIVEN THE COLD ADVECTIVE
PROCESS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE
DEPARTURE OF FLUFFY SNOW SUNDAY, SO HAVE LINGERED 50-60% POPS
THROUGH MIDDAY FOR EASTERN MINNESOTA AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN
WESTERN WISCONSIN. WHEN ALL IS FINISHED, THE FORECAST FOR 3-5"
OF SNOW (WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS) REMAINS ON TRACK NORTH OF
I-94 IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA. WE'VE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY EAST TO INCLUDE THE STRIP OF COUNTIES FROM BENTON (MN)
TO RUSK (WI) WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN SOLID LONG DURATION
ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
THINKING FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG I-94 IN EASTERN MN/WESTERN
WI, WITH 1-3" LIKELY. THE INFLUENCE OF A DRY SLOT TO THE
SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVELY TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN A
COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW TO A HALF INCH OR LESS ACROSS NEAR THE
MINNESOTA RIVER (AND SOUTH).
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE SURFACE LOW PIVOTS OVER
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA SUNDAY MORNING. IN FACT, THE LATEST FORECAST
FEATURES WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30 MPH. THE STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE
WITH THE FLUFFY NATURE OF THE SNOW TO CREATE BLOWING SNOW
RELATED TRAVEL CHALLENGES ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA, WHICH
WILL LIKELY EXTEND WELL BEYOND THE POINT BY WHICH THE LAST FLAKE
FALLS. THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL USHER IN A BLAST OF COLD
CANADIAN AIR, AS TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW ZERO
TOMORROW NIGHT. RINSE AND REPEAT FOR TUESDAY MORNING, WITH
LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE COLD BLAST AS AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY TOP
OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. BOTH MONDAY & TUESDAY MORNING'S LOW
TEMPERATURE GRIDS MAY NEED FURTHER ADJUSTMENT, AS THE PRESENCE
OF THE FRESH SNOWPACK AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD MAY
ALLOW FOR FURTHER COOLING (WHICH IS SAYING SOMETHING, AS AIR
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE -10 TO -12 RANGE NORTHWEST OF
STC!). WIND CHILLS ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH -25 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO EARLY MONDAY & TUESDAY MORNING.
OUR PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN AIM TO STAY SOUTH OF
THE NEXT CLIPPER, WHICH GUIDANCE SLIDES TO OUR EAST OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS IS GOOD NEWS FOR THOSE LOOKING FOR RELIEF FROM THE
BITTER COLD, AS RIDGING WILL BUILD OUT OF THE GREAT PLAINS AND
ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 20S ON WEDNESDAY. FURTHER
WARMING IS ON TAP FOR THURSDAY & FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS (POTENTIALLY
ABOVE FREEZING!) IN THE MID 30S. GUIDANCE SWINGS ANOTHER WAVE
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. LOCAL POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN FLUX, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING IN A PROLONGED BLAST OF BITTER COLD STARTING NEXT
WEEKEND. STAY TUNED...
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CST SAT JAN 11 2025
MOSTLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE IN AS SNOW MOVES IN
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE WORST CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO RIDE
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94, BUT AREAS TO THE SOUTH WILL STILL
LIKELY SEE LIGHT SNOW LINGER THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY STAY AROUND 8 TO 12 KTS OUT OF THE SE, AND THEN
BECOME MORE VARIABLE AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS THROUGH CENTRAL
MN AND WESTERN WI. THE LOW WILL PROGRESS EAST OUT OF THE REGION
BY TOMORROW MORNING, AND WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NW.
WHILE SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY TOMORROW MORNING,
SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MAY LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING WHILE
THE LOW-LEVEL STRATUS IS STILL OVERHEAD.
KMSP...REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS AREAS OVER CENTRAL MN BECOMING
SATURATED ENOUGH FOR THE VIRGA TO TURN INTO SNOW SHOWERS. THIS
TONGUE OF MOISTURE IS TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH IN MODEL RUNS,
POTENTIALLY REACHING MSP THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
ON HOW HEAVY THE SNOWFALL RATES WOULD BE IF THAT TONGUE DOES
REACH MSP, BUT IFR VIS DOES LOOK POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS.
FOLLOWING THE INITIAL BURST OF MODERATE SNOW, LIGHTER SNOWFALL
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING. AS THE SYSTEM EXITS
TOMORROW, AND STRONGER BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SET UP ON THE
NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW. THAT WOULD LIKELY PLACE IT ABOUT 50
TO 100 MILES NORTH OF MSP, BUT THERE IS STILL ROOM FOR THAT TO
SHIFT SOUTH AND IMPACT THE TERMINAL. IF THAT WERE TO HAPPEN,
THAT LIKELY LEAD TO RATES AROUND 0.25"/HOUR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF RATES DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND
TOMORROW MORNING, WE ARE EXPECTING THE FORECAST TO BE DYNAMIC
AND HAVE FREQUENT UPDATES.
FOR THE WINDS OVERNIGHT, WE ARE EXPECTING A GRADUAL SHIFT TO
MORE WESTERLY FROM 06Z TO 09Z. THEN A MORE DRAMATIC SHIFT
TURNING MORE NW FROM 09Z TO 12Z. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 MPH BY THE AFTERNOON.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN PM...IFR/MVFR/-SN EARLY. WIND NW 10-20G25-35 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND NW 10-20 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND W 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR DOUGLAS-POPE-
STEARNS-STEVENS-TODD.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR BENTON-
CHISAGO-ISANTI-KANABEC-MILLE LACS-MORRISON.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
SUNDAY FOR BARRON-POLK-RUSK.
DISCUSSION...STRUS
AVIATION...BED
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