483
FXUS63 KMPX 112322
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
522 PM CST SAT JAN 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LONG DURATION CLIPPER SYSTEM TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY. 2-5" OF SNOW EXPECTED NORTH
OF I-94 IN MN, WITH 1-3" ALONG THE I-94 CORRIDOR (INCLUDING
THE TC METRO). LOWER AMOUNTS IN SOUTHERN MN.
- GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SUNDAY WILL PROMOTE BLOWING SNOW AND
POSSIBLE TRAVEL IMPACTS PRIMARILY ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MN.
- MUCH COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH LOWS SET TO FALL BELOW ZERO.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 149 PM CST SAT JAN 11 2025
SATURDAY AFTERNOON MESOANALYSIS REVEALS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
POSITIONED OVER THE BORDER BETWEEN THE DAKOTAS/MINNESOTA. A ~1000MB
SURFACE LOW IS FURTHER WEST, CENTERED ALONG THE NORTH/SOUTH DAKOTA
BORDERS. GIVEN THAT THE MID-LEVEL JET STREAK IS POSITIONED ON THE
WESTERN FLANK OF THE SURFACE LOW, WE EXPECT THE SURFACE SYSTEM
TO DIG TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO TONIGHT. EVENTUALLY, THE SURFACE
LOW WILL FOLLOW THE REGION OF WARM ADVECTION (CURRENTLY OVER
CENTRAL MINNESOTA) AND PIVOT NORTHEAST INTO WISCONSIN SUNDAY.
THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A SWATH OF SNOW
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK, HOWEVER AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY LESSEN SOUTH/WEST OF THE LOW GIVEN THE
INFLUENCE OF A DRY SLOT.
INITIAL WARM ADVECTIVE BAND OF SNOWFALL HAS DROPPED VISIBILITY BELOW
A MILE ACROSS OUR FAR WESTERN MN SITES AND WE EXPECT THIS BAND TO
TRANSLATE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE "MAIN EVENT" IS CAPTURED
ON REGIONAL MRMS DISPLAY OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA/NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA. POPS CLIMB ABOVE 80% AS THE SURFACE LOW DRAWS
APPROACHES, WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ON
DECK FROM WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG AND
NEAR I-94 IN WESTERN WISCONSIN. WE'VE CONTINUED TO HEAVILY
FAVOR QPF TRENDS FROM THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE OUTPUT AS OPPOSED TO
RUN TO RUN SHIFTS FROM INDIVIDUAL CAM SOLUTIONS. IN DOING THIS,
OUR QPF EXPECTATIONS HAVE NOT CHANGED TOO MUCH THIS FORECAST
CYCLE. LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-94 IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA CONTINUE TO
RUN THE WETTEST, WITH 0.2"+ QPF AMOUNTS APPEARING LIKELY.
0.1-0.2" LIQUID PRECIPITATION REMAINS THE STORY FOR COMMUNITIES
ALONG I-94 (INCLUDING THE TC METRO). FURTHER SOUTH, ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF LIQUID PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST
OF THE MINNESOTA RIVER. THE CHARACTER OF THE WARM ADVECTIVE SNOW
THIS AFTERNOON WILL RUN CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY (SLR OF 13:1).
ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL START IN THE 15:1
RANGE AND INCREASE TO ~20:1 SRL'S GIVEN THE COLD ADVECTIVE
PROCESS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE
DEPARTURE OF FLUFFY SNOW SUNDAY, SO HAVE LINGERED 50-60% POPS
THROUGH MIDDAY FOR EASTERN MINNESOTA AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN
WESTERN WISCONSIN. WHEN ALL IS FINISHED, THE FORECAST FOR 3-5"
OF SNOW (WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS) REMAINS ON TRACK NORTH OF
I-94 IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA. WE'VE EXTENDED THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY EAST TO INCLUDE THE STRIP OF COUNTIES FROM BENTON (MN)
TO RUSK (WI) WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN SOLID LONG DURATION
ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
THINKING FOR SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG I-94 IN EASTERN MN/WESTERN
WI, WITH 1-3" LIKELY. THE INFLUENCE OF A DRY SLOT TO THE
SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVELY TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN A
COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW TO A HALF INCH OR LESS ACROSS NEAR THE
MINNESOTA RIVER (AND SOUTH).
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE SURFACE LOW PIVOTS OVER
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA SUNDAY MORNING. IN FACT, THE LATEST FORECAST
FEATURES WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30 MPH. THE STRONG WINDS WILL COMBINE
WITH THE FLUFFY NATURE OF THE SNOW TO CREATE BLOWING SNOW
RELATED TRAVEL CHALLENGES ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA, WHICH
WILL LIKELY EXTEND WELL BEYOND THE POINT BY WHICH THE LAST FLAKE
FALLS. THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL USHER IN A BLAST OF COLD
CANADIAN AIR, AS TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO FALL BELOW ZERO
TOMORROW NIGHT. RINSE AND REPEAT FOR TUESDAY MORNING, WITH
LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE COLD BLAST AS AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY TOP
OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. BOTH MONDAY & TUESDAY MORNING'S LOW
TEMPERATURE GRIDS MAY NEED FURTHER ADJUSTMENT, AS THE PRESENCE
OF THE FRESH SNOWPACK AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD MAY
ALLOW FOR FURTHER COOLING (WHICH IS SAYING SOMETHING, AS AIR
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE -10 TO -12 RANGE NORTHWEST OF
STC!). WIND CHILLS ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH -25 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO EARLY MONDAY & TUESDAY MORNING.
OUR PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN AIM TO STAY SOUTH OF
THE NEXT CLIPPER, WHICH GUIDANCE SLIDES TO OUR EAST OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS IS GOOD NEWS FOR THOSE LOOKING FOR RELIEF FROM THE
BITTER COLD, AS RIDGING WILL BUILD OUT OF THE GREAT PLAINS AND
ALLOW FOR HIGHS TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 20S ON WEDNESDAY. FURTHER
WARMING IS ON TAP FOR THURSDAY & FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS (POTENTIALLY
ABOVE FREEZING!) IN THE MID 30S. GUIDANCE SWINGS ANOTHER WAVE
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. LOCAL POTENTIAL
FOR PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN FLUX, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING IN A PROLONGED BLAST OF BITTER COLD STARTING NEXT
WEEKEND. STAY TUNED...
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 522 PM CST SAT JAN 11 2025
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
GREATEST IMPACTS EXPECTED AT AXN AND STC. ALL TERMINALS SHOULD
SEE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION AND AT LEAST MVFR. IT IS AXN AND STC
THAT WILL SEE THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR IFR. IFR IS ALSO
POSSIBLE AT THE NEXT TIER TO THE SOUTH, MSP AND RNH. WINDS WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THIS EVENING WITH SOUTH AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH AND THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST THEY WILL PICK UP INTO THE 10 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH
GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 RANGE. THE SNOW WILL COME TO AN END FROM
WEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY WITH LOW STRATUS AND A FEW FLURRIES
HANGING ON EVEN AFTER THE MAIN SNOW COMES TO AN END.
KMSP...FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD EXPECT NO SNOW
OR FLURRIES. EVERYTHING WILL START TO MOISTEN TONIGHT WITH SNOW
EXPECTED TO FILL IN WITH LOW MVFR MOST LIKELY OVERNIGHT. LOW
MVFR TO HIGH IFR FOR THE MORNING LIFTING TO VFR VISIBILITY BY
THE AFTERNOON AS THE SNOW COMES TO AN END. LOW STRATUS WILL
STICK AROUND KEEPING MVFR OVERALL. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING FROM
THE CURRENT SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. AS THE WINDS SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST GUSTS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
TERMINAL WITH OUR CURRENT FORECAST CALLING FOR 1 TO 3 INCHES.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WIND NW 10-20 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND W 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND SW 10-15 KTS
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR DOUGLAS-POPE-
STEARNS-STEVENS-TODD.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR BENTON-
CHISAGO-ISANTI-KANABEC-MILLE LACS-MORRISON.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR BARRON-POLK-
RUSK.
DISCUSSION...STRUS
AVIATION...NDC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page