702
FXUS63 KMPX 120842
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
242 AM CST SUN JAN 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
- GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
AND POSSIBLE TRAVEL IMPACTS PRIMARILY ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MN.
- TURNING MUCH COLDER LATER TODAY AND LINGERING THROUGH EARLY
WEEK, THEN TURNING MILD LATE WEEK BEFORE VERY COLD AIR RETURNS
NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST SUN JAN 12 2025
LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WEST METRO CONTINUES
EASTWARD. MOST OF THE SNOW IS CONFINED TO NORTH OF I-94 WITH
FREEZING DRIZZLE SOUTH, BUT OCCASIONALLY THERE HAVE BEEN BURSTS
OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW. RADAR AND
SURFACE OBS INDICATE FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES ALL THE WAY
TOWARD THE SD STATE LINE, THEN TURNS TO ALL SNOW DEEPER INTO THE
COLDER AIR FARTHER WEST. AS THIS COLDER AIR ARRIVES, THE DGZ
SHOULD SATURATE AND DEEPEN, ALLOWING PRECIP TO TURN TO ALL SNOW
TOWARD DAWN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SATURATED DGZ FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY, SO IT'S LIKELY WE'LL HAVE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES INTO THE AFTERNOON. LATER IN THE DAY AS THE COLDEST
AIR BEGINS TO ARRIVE, MUCH OF THE COLUMN WILL COOL PAST THE DGZ
AND SNOW SHOULD FINALLY COME TO AN END. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
MORNING BEHIND THE LOW IN THE STRONG CAA REGIME. GUSTS OF 30-35
KTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN MN. THE BLOWING SNOW THREAT WILL
BE GOVERNED BY HOW MUCH SNOW FELL. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES ALONE, BUT IF AMOUNTS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN
ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW, THE
ADVISORY THERE MAY BE CANCELLED BEFORE 6 PM.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED 10-15 MPH, BUT WIND CHILLS
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE CRITERIA FOR A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY (-30
WESTERN MN AND -25 ELSEWHERE). MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE COLD
WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO. THE TROUGH WILL KICK OUT AND
A PACIFIC AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE QUICK WEDNESDAY AND LINGER INTO
FRIDAY. HIGHS COULD APPROACH 40 IN SOME LOCATIONS BY THURSDAY.
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL COME THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER SHOT
OF VERY COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW BY SUNDAY. MODELS INDICATE IT COULD
BE A BIT COLDER THAN THE EARLY WEEK BLAST, BUT IT MAY ACTUALLY END
UP MILDER IF THE SNOWPACK MELTS AWAY FROM THE MID WEEK WARMUP.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1058 PM CST SAT JAN 11 2025
IFR EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE CLIPPER MOVES
THROUGH. SOME LIFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL, BUT THEY
WERE NOT LIKELY ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. IFR WILL BE
PRESENT EVEN DURING BREAKS IN THE SNOW BECAUSE OF THE LOW
STRATUS. WINDS HAVE STARTED TO SHIFT AND AS THEY SHIFT FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS UP IN
THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME MIST WITH THE
SNOW, ICE ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
SLIPPERY BETWEEN THE MIST AND SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING
HOURS.
KMSP...SNOW AND MIST WITH IFR TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT WITH STEADY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED BY 12Z.
MVFR SHOULD RETURN LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE SNOW
COMES TO AN END. LOW STRATUS WITH MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. ONCE THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
EXPECT GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOT RANGE.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WIND NW 10-20 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND W 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND SW 10-15 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
DOUGLAS-POPE-STEARNS-STEVENS-TODD.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BENTON-
CHISAGO-ISANTI-KANABEC-MILLE LACS-MORRISON.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BARRON-
POLK-RUSK.
DISCUSSION...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...NDC
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