646
FXUS63 KMPX 121149
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
549 AM CST SUN JAN 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
- GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
AND POSSIBLE TRAVEL IMPACTS PRIMARILY ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL MN.
- TURNING MUCH COLDER LATER TODAY AND LINGERING THROUGH EARLY
WEEK, THEN TURNING MILD LATE WEEK BEFORE VERY COLD AIR RETURNS
NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST SUN JAN 12 2025
LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUE EARLY THIS MORNING AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WEST METRO CONTINUES
EASTWARD. MOST OF THE SNOW IS CONFINED TO NORTH OF I-94 WITH
FREEZING DRIZZLE SOUTH, BUT OCCASIONALLY THERE HAVE BEEN BURSTS
OF STEADIER PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW. RADAR AND
SURFACE OBS INDICATE FREEZING DRIZZLE CONTINUES ALL THE WAY
TOWARD THE SD STATE LINE, THEN TURNS TO ALL SNOW DEEPER INTO THE
COLDER AIR FARTHER WEST. AS THIS COLDER AIR ARRIVES, THE DGZ
SHOULD SATURATE AND DEEPEN, ALLOWING PRECIP TO TURN TO ALL SNOW
TOWARD DAWN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SATURATED DGZ FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY, SO IT'S LIKELY WE'LL HAVE PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES INTO THE AFTERNOON. LATER IN THE DAY AS THE COLDEST
AIR BEGINS TO ARRIVE, MUCH OF THE COLUMN WILL COOL PAST THE DGZ
AND SNOW SHOULD FINALLY COME TO AN END. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
MORNING BEHIND THE LOW IN THE STRONG CAA REGIME. GUSTS OF 30-35
KTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN MN. THE BLOWING SNOW THREAT WILL
BE GOVERNED BY HOW MUCH SNOW FELL. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES ALONE, BUT IF AMOUNTS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MN
ARE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW, THE
ADVISORY THERE MAY BE CANCELLED BEFORE 6 PM.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED 10-15 MPH, BUT WIND CHILLS
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE CRITERIA FOR A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY (-30
WESTERN MN AND -25 ELSEWHERE). MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE COLD
WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO. THE TROUGH WILL KICK OUT AND
A PACIFIC AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE QUICK WEDNESDAY AND LINGER INTO
FRIDAY. HIGHS COULD APPROACH 40 IN SOME LOCATIONS BY THURSDAY.
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL COME THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND ANOTHER SHOT
OF VERY COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW BY SUNDAY. MODELS INDICATE IT COULD
BE A BIT COLDER THAN THE EARLY WEEK BLAST, BUT IT MAY ACTUALLY END
UP MILDER IF THE SNOWPACK MELTS AWAY FROM THE MID WEEK WARMUP.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST SUN JAN 12 2025
MOSTLY IFR CONDITIONS TO START THIS MORNING AS LIGHT SNOW
CONTINUES WHILE CIGS ARE NEAR OR UNDER 1000 FEET. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS
CIGS RISE ABOVE 1000 FEET AND SNOWFALL RATES DECREASE. HOWEVER,
EXPECT LIGHT SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST INTO THIS AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING BEFORE FINALLY EXITING EAST. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
IN THE CAM GUIDANCE IF WE ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OUT TO VFR TONIGHT,
BUT RAP AND HRRR FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A PERSISTENT MVFR
SATURATED LAYER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THUS, HAVE
OPTED TO GO WITH MVFR THIS EVENING THRU THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS EXCEEDING 15 AND 25 KNOTS,
RESPECTIVELY. STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM WESTERN TO
SOUTHERN MN THRU THIS AFTERNOON WHERE 30-35 KNOT GUSTS ARE
FORECAST. WINDS GRADUALLY SLOW TO NEAR 10 KNOTS BY MONDAY
MORNING.
KMSP...IFR CONDITIONS TO START THE PERIOD WITH SNOW BECOMING THE
MORE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE (OVER FREEZING DRIZZLE) AS THIS
MORNING PROGRESSES. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR BY 15Z. EXPECT SNOW
SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE FINALLY
TAPERING OFF BY THIS EVENING. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED VALUES NEARING 20
KNOTS AND GUSTS NEARING 30 KNOTS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...MVFR EARLY, THEN VFR. WIND NW 10-20 KTS.
TUE...VFR. WIND W 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND SW 10-15 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
DOUGLAS-POPE-STEARNS-STEVENS-TODD.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BENTON-
CHISAGO-ISANTI-KANABEC-MILLE LACS-MORRISON.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BARRON-
POLK-RUSK.
DISCUSSION...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...CTG
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