227
FXUS63 KMPX 122040
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
240 PM CST SUN JAN 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION.
- GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL LEAD TO PATCHY AREAS OF BLOWING
SNOW AND POSSIBLE TRAVEL IMPACTS PRIMARILY ACROSS WEST-
CENTRAL MN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
- WIND CHILLS IN THE -20 TO -25F RANGE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 213 PM CST SUN JAN 12 2025
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MORNING ROUND OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS DEPARTED TO THE NORTHEAST. STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION IS UNDERWAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW, IN PART
DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT IS OBSERVED BY THE STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REVEAL A
DISTINCT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT FROM WEST TO EAST. 2 PM TEMPERATURES
ARE AS COLD AS 7 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA, WHILE
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN THE LOW 20S ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN.
COMBINE THE AIR TEMPERATURES WITH THE STRONG WINDS AND THE WIND
CHILL CALCULATION YIELDS APPARENT TEMEPRATURES ALREADY NEAR -10
DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE OMEGA FORCING REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH
WITHIN THE STRATUS CLOUD LAYER, WHICH IS JUXTAPOSED WITH A DEEPLY
SATURATED DGZ. WE HAVE BOOSTED POPS INTO THE EVENING TO REFLECT THE
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND THE FOCUS WILL
SHIFT THIS EVENING TO HOW EFFICIENTLY THE STRATUS CAN SCATTER OUT.
ADMITTEDLY, FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS A POOR HANDLE ON THE EVOLUTION OF
SKY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING, SO WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON JUST HOW
COLD AREAS WITH A FRESH SNOWPACK WILL GET. IN THE SAME LIGHT,
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD STAY BREEZY ENOUGH TO MITIGATE
EXCESSIVE RADIATIONAL COOLING. ALL THIS TO SAY OUR FORECAST OF
LOWS BETWEEN -5 TO -10 ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND 0 TO -5 FOR
SOUTHERN MN/WESTERN WI SEEMS REASONABLE. TONIGHT'S PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE WITH WIND CHILLS, WHICH ARE PROJECTED
TO FALL TO -20 TO -25 AREAWIDE. WHILE IT'S NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT LOCATIONS IN CENTRAL MN/NORTH OF I-94 COULD MAKE A
RUN TOWARDS COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA (-30 IN THIS PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA), THE AFOREMENTIONED FORECAST CHALLENGES
HAVE KEPT US AGAINST ISSUING A COLD WEATHER HEADLINE, AS IS SEEN
TO THE NORTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF WFO DULUTH & GRAND FORKS
FORECAST AREAS.
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENT OVER MANITOBA WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY, WHICH WILL AT A MINIMUM BRING THE RETURN OF
CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY FLURRIES. THE DGZ, WHICH WILL EXTEND INTO
THE LOW-LEVELS BELOW 5K FEET TOMORROW, IS MUCH DRIER, SO NOT OVERLY
EXCITED ABOUT WIDESPREAD FLURRY CHANCES. WE'LL PUSH THE ADDITION OF
FLURRIES TO LATER FORECAST SHIFTS, IF THEY END UP NEEDING TO BE
INTRODUCED INTO THE GRIDS. OTHERWISE, MONDAY WILL BE COLD WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS FROM
STAR TO FINISH. 1030S MB CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST HEADING INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS TO RELAX. HOWEVER, ANOTHER VERY COLD
NIGHT IS ON TAP.
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO MONDAY
NIGHT WITH A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA IN THE
TEENS BELOW ZERO. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE LIGHT UNDER THE HIGH
PRESSURE THAT SHOULD PREVENT OUR WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES FROM
MEETING COLD WEATHER CRITERIA. THE WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WILL
DIP INTO THE -20 TO -30F RANGE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY
WILL BE PLEASANT IF YOU ENJOY COLD WEATHER. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
SHOULD LIFT SPIRITS DESPITE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS. THE EXPANSIVE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND WILL BEGIN TO USHER
IN WARMER AIR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE FINAL NIGHT WITH BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
INITIAL COLD STRETCH. THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE IS PROGGED TO
BUILD NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION
RAMPS UP IN RESPONSE TO THE RISING HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES
RECOVER THE THE SINGLE DIGITS WEDNESDAY MORNING TO THE UPPER 20S
AND LOWER 30S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL PEAK IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S THURSDAY. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD HIT 40 BY THURSDAY.
LOWS WILL ONLY COOL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S, OR WHERE OUR
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE THIS TIME OF YEAR! ANOTHER CONCERN
ANYTIME WE WARM UP IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES DUE TO SNOWMELT. CURRENT FORECAST
DOESN'T SUGGEST WE'LL SEE WIDESPREAD FOG LIKE WE DID IN LATE
DECEMBER, BUT IT'S SOMETHING TO MONITOR AS WE GET TOWARDS MID-
WEEK. OUR BRIEF JANUARY THAW WILL END ON FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
DIG INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. GUIDANCE TRACKS A CLIPPER ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON FRIDAY, DRAGGING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY NIGHT BUT THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR
LAGS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM UNTIL SATURDAY & SUNDAY. SATURDAY
NIGHT'S LOWS FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. SUNDAY'S
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT ZERO. GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO ADVERTISE THIS AS AN IMPRESSIVE ARCTIC OUTBREAK NEXT WEEKEND
THRU THE BEGINNING OF THE FOLLOWING WEEK. THIS WOULD BRING US
OUR COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON OVER NEXT WEEKEND. THE ONE
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE LACK OF HEALTHY SNOWPACK ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF MINNESOTA. THIS SHOULD PUT THE BREAKS AND
PREVENT US FROM THE BOTTOM FALLING OUT. IT'S IMPORTANT TO NOTE
THAT THE 12Z EPS MEAN HIGHLIGHTS H850 TEMPS IN THE LOW -30S C!
WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR TRENDS AS THIS HAS POTENTIAL FOR US TO
BREAK OUT OUR COLD WEATHER HEADLINES IF IT VERIFIES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST SUN JAN 12 2025
SYNOPTIC SNOW EVENT HAS LIFTED NORTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS. MAIN
FOCUS FOR AVIATION RELATED IMPACTS IS THE LINGERING MVFR OR
LOWER STRATUS CAPTURED ON SATELLITE ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ILLUSTRATE THAT THE STRATUS IS LOCATED
WITHIN A DEEP SNOW GROWTH ZONE. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENT
LIFT, WE OPTED TO KEEP VFR SNOW SHOWERS IN THE TAFS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED IN AN OPTIMISTIC DIRECTION FOR
PROFILES TO DRY OUT SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
THE STRATUS TO SCATTER OUT IN SOME CAPACITY. FORECAST GUIDANCE
IS MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH IMPROVEMENTS AT AXN/RWF. NORTHWEST
WINDS REMAIN GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT SHOULD RELAX
A BIT OVERNIGHT. ANY CLEARING WILL GIVE WAY TO THE REDEVELOPMENT
OF LOW VFR/HIGH MVFR CIGS MONDAY MORNING.
KMSP...LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE KEEPS THE IDEA OF VFR SNOW SHOWERS
IN PLACE THROUGH ~23Z. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THERE ARE BRIEF
PERIODS WHERE THE VISIBILITY DROPS TO 4-5 SM PER UPSTREAM OBS,
HOWEVER CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF.
TRENDED THE 18Z TAF IN A MORE OPTIMISTIC DIRECTION WITH VFR CIGS
TONIGHT. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY TONIGHT, PRIOR
TO DECREASING INTO MONDAY MORNING. STILL, EXPECT SUSTAINED FLOW
BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS TOMORROW.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND W 5-10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND SW 10-15 KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND NW 5-15 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
DOUGLAS-POPE-STEARNS-STEVENS-TODD.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BPH/STRUS
AVIATION...STRUS
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