951
FXUS63 KMPX 131735
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1135 AM CST MON JAN 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS TODAY FOLLOWED BY WIND CHILLS IN THE
-20S TONIGHT.
- AN EXPECTED WARMUP THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK, FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER BLAST OF COLD AIR STARTING THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 227 AM CST MON JAN 13 2025
BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF OUR DEPARTING SYSTEM HAVE
CAUSED STRONG CAA INTO OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS. COMBINED WITH GUSTS STILL
REACHING 20-25 MPH, WIND CHILLS HAVE FALLEN WELL INTO THE NEGATIVE
TEENS, WITH -20S IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL MN. DESPITE PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES TODAY, TEMPERATURES WILL NOT WARM MUCH WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING
TO BREAK 10. IN FACT, AREAS NEAR AXN MAY NOT EVEN BREAK 0.
ADDITIONALLY, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL STILL BE STEADY WITH GUSTS TO
20 MPH, SO MAXIMUM WIND CHILLS WON'T EXCEED -10 THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA. A FEW FLURRIES MAY OCCUR IN WEST-
CENTRAL WI THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH.
HOWEVER, NO SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE HEART OF THE COLD
AIR MASS ARRIVES TONIGHT WITH FORECAST LOWS OF -5 TO -15.
FORTUNATELY, WINDS WON'T BE AS STRONG. THOUGH, WIND CHILL VALUES
WILL STILL BE IN THE -20S BUT LIKELY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. AFTER
A DAY OF SINGLE DIGIT HIGHS TUESDAY AND WIDESPREAD SUB-ZERO LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES WILL ABRUPTLY REBOUND STARTING
WEDNESDAY. A LOBE OF UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING ORIGINATING FROM WESTERN
CANADA WILL PIVOT SOUTHEAST AND PASS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. WARM AIR DIRECTING THE RIDGE WILL ARRIVE
FIRST, JUMPING WEDNESDAY'S HIGHS INTO THE MID 20S IN WI TO EVEN
LOWER 30S IN WESTERN MN. TEMPERATURES IMPROVE EVEN MORE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS COMFORTABLY IN THE 30S FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. ANY
RECORD HIGHS LOOK TO BE OUT OF REACH FOR OUR 3 CLIMATE SITES (MSP,
STC, AND EAU), THOUGH.
THE WARMUP LOOKS TO COME TO END BY THE WEEKEND HOWEVER, AS LONG-
RANGE GUIDANCE FAVORS THE BUILDING OF AN AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE RIDGE WILL ACT TO FUNNEL A VERY COLD
AIR MASS FROM THE CANADIAN NORTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS THROUGH
AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. CURRENT LONG-RANGE ENSEMBLES
FORECAST THIS AIR MASS TO BE EVEN COLDER THAN WHAT WE'RE ABOUT TO
EXPERIENCE THESE NEXT 2 DAYS. THUS, WE MAY SEE OUR FIRST USAGE OF
THE NEW EXTREME COLD HEADLINES EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS FOR ANY HOPES OF
MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO BE VERY PESSIMISTIC. A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES DO PASS TO OUR NORTHEAST WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
LATER WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER, NEARLY ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE ALSO WELL OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST MON JAN 13 2025
VISIBLE SATELLITE CAPTURES A BAND OF MID-LEVEL STRATUS MOVING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE THIS
MORNING. CLOUD BASES ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 5-10K FEET, WITH
ISOLATED FLURRIES HERE AND THERE. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT CLOUD
BASES MAY LOWER TO HIGH MVFR FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON,
PARTICULARLY AT AXN & STC. OTHERWISE, EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR
HEADING INTO THIS EVENING.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WIND SW 10-15 KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND NW 5-10 KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND NW 10-15 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...STRUS
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