094
FXUS63 KMPX 141756
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1156 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD TEMPERATURES PERSIST TODAY, BUT MUCH MILDER AIR ARRIVES
MID TO LATE WEEK.
- ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND, CONTINUING
INTO NEXT WEEK.
- SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOW IN WI WEDNESDAY, OTHERWISE NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE
FALLEN INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO ACROSS WESTERN MN AND NEARING
10 BELOW IN EASTERN MN WHILE WINDS REMAIN 10-15 MPH. THIS HAS
RESULTED IN WIND CHILLS OF -25 TO -35. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF OUR MN COUNTIES UNTIL MID MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MN BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL DROP OFF ACCORDINGLY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN
COLD IN THE SINGLE DIGITS, BUT CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST WILL PROVIDE AMPLE SUNSHINE.
THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL START BRINGING IN A MUCH MILDER PACIFIC
AIRMASS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER HUDSON BAY AND A WARM FRONT
STRETCHING SOUTH INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY WILL BRING
INCREASED CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION, AND THE MOISTURE DEPTH MAY
BE DEEP ENOUGH IN WI TO ALLOW FOR SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES TO DEVELOP IN THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S AS
THE PACIFIC AIRMASS SETTLES IN.
ANOTHER SYSTEM TRAVERSING SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING AN ARCTIC
FRONT SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND A VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL
OVERTAKE MUCH OF THE COUNTRY LATER THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOUT 20-25 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND MAY NOT CLIMB ABOVE
ZERO SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A 1050+ MB HIGH BUILDING SOUTH INTO THE
ROCKIES WILL KEEP WINDS ELEVATED THROUGH THE NEXT COLD SNAP AND
HAZARDOUS WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY UNTIL THE AIRMASS BEGINS TO
MODIFY TUESDAY. ABSENT A TYPICAL SNOWPACK (WE MAY NOT HAVE ANY
ON THE GROUND BY THE WEEKEND), AND UPPER AIR TEMPERATURE
ANOMALIES NOT BEING TOO EXTREME, THIS COLD SNAP WILL NOT BE AS
SEVERE AS SUCH A SYNOPTIC SETUP MAY TYPICALLY BRING FOR MID TO
LATE JANUARY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TODAY WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH, AND TAKE ON A
WESTERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT, AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHWEST BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE, WITH GUSTS NEAR 20
KTS BY LATE MORNING.
KMSP...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE
CHANGING WINDS, BUT SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT DURING THE TRANSITION
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. LOOKING AHEAD, THERE IS A
SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING, BUT ACCUMULATIONS
WOULD BE A DUSTING AT MOST.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR, CHC MVFR. WIND NW AT 10G15KTS BCMG SW AT 05 KTS.
FRI...VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE. WIND W AT 5KTS BCMG NW AT
15G25-30KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND NW AT 15G25 KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...JRB
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