776
FXUS63 KMPX 150009
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
609 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LATE WEDNESDAY/NIGHT, INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW NORTH
OF I-94, WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATION NEAR A HALF INCH OR LESS.
- THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
- SATURDAY, ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES, CONTINUING INTO
NEXT WEEK. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY BE POSSIBLE, BUT
EXTREME COLD WARNINGS ARE UNLIKELY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND SURFACE OBS SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION, WITH LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING NEARLY CALM. A SURFACE HIGH WAS
CENTERED ACROSS THE REGION, AND THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. AS IT DOES, SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE, AND ON WEDNESDAY COULD SEE GUSTS OF 20
TO 25 MPH.
THESE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE SKIRTS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. THE STRONGEST FORCING WITH THIS WAVE WILL
BE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO
SHOW LIFT AND SATURATION AT THE SITES ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94.
FOR THAT REASON, DID INCREASE POPS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35 AND
NORTH OF I-94, WHERE THE HIRES MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
BRINGING A FEW HOURS OF SNOW. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT,
GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH, WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS ACROSS
WESTERN WISCONSIN.
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE, BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME MID-LEVEL DRYING AND LOSS OF ICE
CRYSTALS. THAT MEANS THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
AT TIMES. THE HRRR TRIES TO HINT AT THIS, BUT OVERALL THE HIRES
MODELS ARE SHOWING MAINLY SNOW. THE THING IS, THEY WERE SHOWING
MAINLY SNOW SATURDAY EVENING AS WELL, WHEN THERE WAS FREEZING
DRIZZLE ACROSS THE METRO.
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A JANUARY THAW WILL COMMENCE LATER
THIS WEEK AS WARMER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE LOW 30S ON THURSDAY, AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING, BUT THIS
REPRIEVE FROM WINTER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY, AND BRINGS ANOTHER BLAST OF
ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SATURDAY WILL BE
BLUSTERY WITH HIGHS OCCURRING IN THE MORNING, AND STEADY OR
FALLING TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THE DAY. THE COLDEST DAYS WILL
BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WHEN HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW ZERO, AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE -15 TO -20 DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF
COLD TEMPERATURES AND STEADY NORTHWEST WIND WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY MORNING, POSSIBLY TUESDAY AS WELL. AT THIS TIME, EXTREME
COLD WARNINGS ARE NOT EXPECTED. WIND CHILLS OF -25 TO -35 ARE
MOST LIKELY, AND LOCATIONS THAT FALL TO NEAR -40 HAVE A HIGHER
THRESHOLD. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES GIVEN THE
COLD AIR MASS, BUT LITTLE TO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 556 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW WITH LIGHT
WINDS AS A SURFACE HIGH SITS OVER THE REGION. CLOUDS AND WINDS
WILL BOTH BE ON THE INCREASE BY MID MORNING AHEAD OF A QUICK
MOVING DISTURBANCE. VFR SHOULD HOLD THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD, BUT MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BE GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY WITH GUSTS OF 20-25KTS LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. OUR WISCONSIN SITES WILL LIKELY
SEE LIGHT SNOW MOVE IN BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH MVFR CONDITIONS,
WHILE SOME FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE AT KSTC AND KMSP.
KMSP...LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF PRECIP BASED ON CURRENT
FORECASTS, BUT A FEW HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW MAY NEED TO BE ADDED
LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE NEXT SET OF TAFS.
OTHERWISE, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AROUND 15Z AND SHIFT MORE WESTERLY BY 00Z. MVFR CIGS ARE ALSO
ANTICIPATED AROUND 00Z THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR, CHC MVFR. WIND NW AT 10G15KTS.
FRI...VFR, CHC MVFR. WIND W AT 5KTS BCMG NW AT 15G25-30KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND NW AT 15G25KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...DYE
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