878
FXUS63 KMPX 150505
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1105 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LATE WEDNESDAY/NIGHT, INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW NORTH
OF I-94, WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATION NEAR A HALF INCH OR LESS.
- THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
- SATURDAY, ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES, CONTINUING INTO
NEXT WEEK. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY BE POSSIBLE, BUT
EXTREME COLD WARNINGS ARE UNLIKELY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND SURFACE OBS SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION, WITH LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING NEARLY CALM. A SURFACE HIGH WAS
CENTERED ACROSS THE REGION, AND THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. AS IT DOES, SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE, AND ON WEDNESDAY COULD SEE GUSTS OF 20
TO 25 MPH.
THESE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE SKIRTS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. THE STRONGEST FORCING WITH THIS WAVE WILL
BE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER, BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO
SHOW LIFT AND SATURATION AT THE SITES ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94.
FOR THAT REASON, DID INCREASE POPS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35 AND
NORTH OF I-94, WHERE THE HIRES MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
BRINGING A FEW HOURS OF SNOW. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT,
GENERALLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH, WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS ACROSS
WESTERN WISCONSIN.
SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY PRECIPITATION TYPE, BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME MID-LEVEL DRYING AND LOSS OF ICE
CRYSTALS. THAT MEANS THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE
AT TIMES. THE HRRR TRIES TO HINT AT THIS, BUT OVERALL THE HIRES
MODELS ARE SHOWING MAINLY SNOW. THE THING IS, THEY WERE SHOWING
MAINLY SNOW SATURDAY EVENING AS WELL, WHEN THERE WAS FREEZING
DRIZZLE ACROSS THE METRO.
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A JANUARY THAW WILL COMMENCE LATER
THIS WEEK AS WARMER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE LOW 30S ON THURSDAY, AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING, BUT THIS
REPRIEVE FROM WINTER WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY, AND BRINGS ANOTHER BLAST OF
ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SATURDAY WILL BE
BLUSTERY WITH HIGHS OCCURRING IN THE MORNING, AND STEADY OR
FALLING TEMPERATURES THE REST OF THE DAY. THE COLDEST DAYS WILL
BE SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WHEN HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW ZERO, AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE -15 TO -20 DEGREES. THE COMBINATION OF
COLD TEMPERATURES AND STEADY NORTHWEST WIND WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY MORNING, POSSIBLY TUESDAY AS WELL. AT THIS TIME, EXTREME
COLD WARNINGS ARE NOT EXPECTED. WIND CHILLS OF -25 TO -35 ARE
MOST LIKELY, AND LOCATIONS THAT FALL TO NEAR -40 HAVE A HIGHER
THRESHOLD. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES GIVEN THE
COLD AIR MASS, BUT LITTLE TO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT THRU
DAYBREAK, THEN CLOUDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE DURING THE DAY
WHILE WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 5 KTS. MID-LEVEL
CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP MID-TO-LATE AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES, AND
THERE ARE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF I-94
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE MAIN P-TYPE
WILL BE LIGHT SNOW, THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME -FZDZ MIXED IN AT
TIMES, PARTICULARLY NEAR THE ONSET TIME OF THE PRECIPITATION.
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT, UP TO ONE HALF INCH, WITH
ANY ICING LITTLE TO NONE. THE PRECIPITATION WILL WANE DURING THE
WEDNESDAY EVENING HOURS. THERE COULD BE SOME LOW LEVEL
TURBULENCE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS AS STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL HAVE STRONG
LOW LEVEL WINDS. WHILE TRUE LLWS CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE REACHED, OR AT LEAST REACHED WITH ANY PROLONGED DURATION,
TURBULENT CONDITIONS ARE MORE LIKELY.
KMSP...THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD COMES AWFULLY CLOSE TO MSP TO
NOT HAVE A MENTION SO HAVE OPTED TO ADD IN A PROB30 GROUP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MAINLY FLURRIES/-SHSN WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A MIXTURE OF FZDZ/SN. LITTLE TO NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION AND ICING IS EXPECTED AND THIS THINKING STILL MAY
CHANGE A BIT OVER THE NEXT FEW TAFS BUT CONFIDENCE IS AT LEAST
AT THE POINT WHERE THE CHANCE WARRANTS MENTION. OTHERWISE, VERY
FEW CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THIS DURATION.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR, CHC MVFR. WIND NW AT 10G15KTS.
FRI...VFR, CHC MVFR. WIND W AT 5KTS BCMG NW AT 15G25-30KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND NW AT 15G25KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...BORGHOFF/JRB
AVIATION...JPC
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