803
FXUS63 KMPX 150834
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
234 AM CST WED JAN 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW AND FREEZING DRIZZLE NORTH
OF I-94 THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE
NEAR A HALF INCH OR LESS.
- THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 30S.
- ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES SATURDAY, CONTINUING INTO
NEXT WEEK. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE PROBABLE, BUT EXTREME
COLD WARNINGS ARE UNLIKELY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 233 AM CST WED JAN 15 2025
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING HAVE LARGELY FALLEN INTO THE
NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS (WITH A FEW NEGATIVE TEENS IN CENTRAL MN).
CLEAR SKIES, CALM WINDS, AND SOMEWHAT OF A SNOWPACK HAVE ALLOWED FOR
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. WE WILL WARM UP QUICKLY TODAY AS
THERMAL RIDGING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE QUICKLY SLIDES THROUGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL SHOOT INTO THE 20S IN WEST-CENTRAL WI TO LOWER 30S
IN WESTERN MN. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND BRING OUR ONLY GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR
THE PERIOD. CAMS SHOW LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN MN AND
WI AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT AND MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN
MN AND WI THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DURING PRECIP IN THESE REGIONS, A MIXTURE OF FLURRIES AND FREEZING
DRIZZLE LOOKS MOST LIKELY AS MOIST LOW-LEVEL SUB-FREEZING PROFILES
PERIODICALLY EXPERIENCE SATURATION INTO THE DGZ. ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE VERY MINOR BUT THE TIMING AND FREEZING NATURE OF THE PRECIP (WITH
SUB-FREEZING SURFACE TEMPERATURES) COULD CAUSE ISSUES WITH THE LATE
AFTERNOON COMMUTE. MODELS ALSO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE
TO LINGER BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE IN WEST-CENTRAL WI WELL INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUS, HAVE CONTINUED 20-30% POPS FOR OUR WI
COUNTIES THROUGH ABOUT 3 AM THURSDAY.
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THURSDAY, UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AS A THERMAL RIDGE IS ADVECTED FROM THE WEST. OUR
TEMPERATURES WILL THUS TREND WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND MID TO UPPER 30S FRIDAY. HOWEVER, THE WARM UP
WON'T LAST LONG AS A STRONG, ARCTIC COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER FRIDAY. SOME GUIDANCE HAS ALSO BEEN TRYING TO
PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW ALONG THE FRONT, SO HAVE THROWN IN 10-20% POPS
OVER WESTERN MN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FOLLOWING THE FRONT WILL BE A
MASSIVE POOL OF VERY COLD, ARCTIC AIR THAT WILL SETTLE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
CURRENTLY, THE COLDEST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT WHERE NIGHTTIME LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE NEGATIVE
TEENS. MEANWHILE, THERE IS A VERY GOOD CHANCE THAT HIGHS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL NOT EXCEED 0 FOR MOST OF THE CWA (ASIDE FROM ALONG I-
90). THESE FORECAST TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LIKELY, STEADY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CREATE PROLONGED, BRUTALLY COLD WIND
CHILLS. VALUES OF -20S TO -30S CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. WIND CHILL VALUES DURING THE DAY
SHOULD NOT IMPROVE MUCH EITHER WITH VALUES STRUGGLING TO EXCEED -20.
AS SUCH, COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES LOOK LIKE A GIVEN THROUGHOUT THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, WE'LL WAIT TO ISSUE THESE PRODUCTS
UNTIL WE DRAW CLOSER TO THE EVENT.
LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE FAVORS TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO MODERATE
TUESDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC AIR MASS PIVOTS NORTHEAST
TOWARDS NORTHEAST CANADA. IN ITS WAKE, THERMAL RIDGING ATTEMPTS TO
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS AS ENSEMBLES BRIEFLY FAVOR UPPER-LEVEL
SPLIT FLOW. LOOKING UPSTREAM, THOUGH, IT SEEMS LIKE MORE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE AS RIDGING BECOMES FAVORED AGAIN
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA AND OFF THE WESTERN CANADIAN COAST THE
LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CST TUE JAN 14 2025
CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT THRU
DAYBREAK, THEN CLOUDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE DURING THE DAY
WHILE WINDS PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 5 KTS. MID-LEVEL
CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP MID-TO-LATE AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES, AND
THERE ARE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY NEAR AND NORTH OF I-94
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE MAIN P-TYPE
WILL BE LIGHT SNOW, THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME -FZDZ MIXED IN AT
TIMES, PARTICULARLY NEAR THE ONSET TIME OF THE PRECIPITATION.
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT, UP TO ONE HALF INCH, WITH
ANY ICING LITTLE TO NONE. THE PRECIPITATION WILL WANE DURING THE
WEDNESDAY EVENING HOURS. THERE COULD BE SOME LOW LEVEL
TURBULENCE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS AS STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL HAVE STRONG
LOW LEVEL WINDS. WHILE TRUE LLWS CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE REACHED, OR AT LEAST REACHED WITH ANY PROLONGED DURATION,
TURBULENT CONDITIONS ARE MORE LIKELY.
KMSP...THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD COMES AWFULLY CLOSE TO MSP TO
NOT HAVE A MENTION SO HAVE OPTED TO ADD IN A PROB30 GROUP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR MAINLY FLURRIES/-SHSN WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A MIXTURE OF FZDZ/SN. LITTLE TO NO SNOW
ACCUMULATION AND ICING IS EXPECTED AND THIS THINKING STILL MAY
CHANGE A BIT OVER THE NEXT FEW TAFS BUT CONFIDENCE IS AT LEAST
AT THE POINT WHERE THE CHANCE WARRANTS MENTION. OTHERWISE, VERY
FEW CHANGES ARE EXPECTED IN THIS DURATION.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR, CHC MVFR. WIND NW AT 10G15KTS.
FRI...VFR, CHC MVFR. WIND W AT 5KTS BCMG NW AT 15G25-30KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND NW AT 15G25KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...JPC
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