337
FXUS63 KMPX 161646
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1046 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BITTERLY COLD TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN LATE NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 412 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
PATCHES OF LIGHT SNOW ARE ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS
EASTERN MN AND WI. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN REDUCED OCCASIONALLY
TO 3-5 MILES, BUT VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS OCCURRING. DRIER
AIR WILL BEGIN WORKING IN TOWARD SUNRISE AND WILL END THE SNOW.
BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT AS A STRENGTHENING HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 MPH AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO, WITH SOME -20S IN WEST CENTRAL MN, WILL SEND WIND CHILLS
INTO THE -30 TO -45 DEGREE RANGE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
AN EXTREME COLD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MN, WITH A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY ELSEWHERE. HEADLINES
EXPIRE AT 10 AM MONDAY WITH QUICKLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THEREAFTER. IT WILL STILL BE QUITE COLD WITH HIGHS
REMAINING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO AND WIND CHILLS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S BELOW, BUT MID FEBRUARY SUNSHINE WILL GO A LONG
WAY TO MAKING IT FEEL MORE TOLERABLE.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON. A
1045 MB HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN TO A 1052 MB HIGH BY TUESDAY
MORNING AS IT SETTLES OVER THE DAKOTAS. ITS RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHERN IA WILL ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY LIGHTER WINDS AND IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
DETERMINISTIC NBM LOWS WERE NEARING ITS 75TH OR 90TH PERCENTILE
IN MANY AREAS WHICH IS LIKELY A RESULT OF LONGER-TERM BIAS
CORRECTION. LOWERED TEMPERATURES USING A BLEND OF 25TH AND 50TH
PERCENTILES GIVEN THE SETUP AND BETTER SNOWPACK. EXPECTING SOME
LOCATIONS TO DROP TO -30 IN PARTS OF CENTRAL MN, WITH MOST OF
THE REST OF THE AREA DROPPING INTO THE -20S. GIVEN THESE AIR
TEMPERATURES, ANY WIND AT ALL WILL SEND WIND CHILLS DROPPING
INTO THE 35 TO 45 BELOW RANGE, SO ISSUED AN EXTREME COLD WATCH
AREA WIDE LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE CENTRAL PLAINS MIDWEEK,
WITH RETURN FLOW BEGINNING THURSDAY. A WARMING TREND FOR SEVERAL
DAYS THEREAFTER COULD BRING HIGHS INTO THE 30S NEXT WEEKEND AND
INTO THE 40S THE FOLLOWING WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
BELOW NORMAL PRECIP SHOULD FINISH OFF THE MONTH.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1044 AM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WITH FEW-SCT LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SKIES CLEAR OUT
OVERNIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 20KTS THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 10KTS OR LESS THIS EVENING.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 5-10KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND NW 5-10KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND NW 5KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST MONDAY
FOR BENTON-BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-ISANTI-KANABEC-
KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-
NICOLLET-POPE-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-
STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR ANOKA-BENTON-BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-
CHISAGO-DAKOTA-DOUGLAS-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-
HENNEPIN-ISANTI-KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-
MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-POPE-
RAMSEY-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-RICE-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-
STEARNS-STEELE-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WASECA-WASHINGTON-
WATONWAN-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST
MONDAY FOR ANOKA-BLUE EARTH-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-FARIBAULT-
FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-RAMSEY-RICE-
SCOTT-STEELE-WASECA-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN.
WI...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR BARRON-CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-
POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST
MONDAY FOR BARRON-CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-
POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.
DISCUSSION...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...DYE
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