786
FXUS63 KMPX 170004
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
604 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- BITTERLY COLD TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN LATE NEXT WEEKEND AND
CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
- NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7
DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 307 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
WELCOME TO THE FREEZER AISLE! THE ARCTIC AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON
IS CENTERED NEAR WINNIPEG. THE CORE OF THIS AIRMASS WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE BOUNDARY WATERS REGION ON MONDAY AND ALTHOUGH
THE CORE OF IT WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST FROM THERE, A PIECE OF
THAT TROUGH WILL BREAK OFF OVER THE DAKOTAS AND MN, LINGERING
OVER US THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE COLDEST STRETCH OF WEATHER WE
WILL EXPERIENCE WILL BE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AIRMASS
MODIFICATION WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WHILE THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS ON
FRIDAY WILL SIGNAL THE END OF THIS BITTERLY COLD AIRMASS. AS THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED, FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT, THE NBM GUIDANCE WAS RUNNING UP NEAR THE 75TH PERCENTILE
FOR ITS OVERNIGHT LOWS, SO WE CONTINUED TO MOVE FORECAST LOWS
TOWARD THE 25TH PERCENTILE MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. FOR
HIGHS, THE LIGHTER WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES MEANS ALBEDO
DIFFERENCES WILL COME INTO PLAY, WITH THE TREES OF WESTERN WI
ALLOWING THEM TO WARM A FEW DEGREES MORE DURING THE DAYS THAN
THE OPEN AGRICULTURE FIELDS AND THEIR HIGH ALBEDOS IN WESTERN
MN. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO LOWS IN THE
20S BELOW ZERO (WITH SOME -30S POSSIBLE IN CENTRAL MN) AND HIGHS
STAYING BELOW ZERO IN MN AND SNEAKING JUST ABOVE IT IN WI. FOR
WIND CHILLS, 30 TO 45 DEGREES BELOW IS WHERE THEY ARE HEADING
FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
WHEN IT COMES TO COLD WEATHER HEADLINES, THE ONE CHANGE WE MADE
TODAY WAS TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE MANKATO AREA INTO THE EXTREME
COLD WARNING FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, THOUGH DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH THE WINDS STAY UP, WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE
WARNING FOR TONIGHT TO COVER ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL MN. MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING STILL HAS AN EXTREME COLD WATCH,
THOUGH IT IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT THAT WILL END UP
BEING AN AREA-WIDE EXTREME COLD WARNING. ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER
HEADLINES WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WELL. IT'S A MAYBE ON THE HEADLINES RIGHT
NOW FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING, WHILE THURSDAY NIGHT
WE CAN FINALLY SAY NO TO THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD WEATHER
HEADLINES (HOPEFULLY FOR THE REST OF THE 24-25 WINTER AS WELL!).
OUTSIDE OF A STRAY FLURRY, WE'LL BE TOO COLD AND DRY FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION THIS WEEK. TO EVEN FIND A MEAGER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION, YOU HAVE TO GO OUT TO NEXT WEEKEND WHEN A PATTERN
WITH A MORE ACTIVE WAVE TRAIN GETS SETUP, BUT RIGHT NOW, IT
LOOKS LIKE THAT STORM TRACK WOULD BE OFF TO OUR NORTH, WITH
SUNDAY NEXT WEEKEND LOOK TO START AN IMPRESSIVE FEBRUARY THAW.
LOOKING AHEAD A BIT TO THE WEEK OF FEB 24TH, THE EPS SNOW DEPTH
CONTINUES TO SHOW OUR MEAGER SNOW PACK DISAPPEARING DURING THE
LAST WEEK OF FEBRUARY. THIS WILL COME WITH HIGHS EASILY IN THE
30S AND 40S, WITH 50S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION DEPENDING ON HOW
THINGS SETUP. FOR OUR COLD WEATHER ENTHUSIASTS, YOU BETTER GET
OUT THERE AND ENJOY THIS WEEK , BECAUSE TASTE OF SPRING PART 2
(PART ONE COME AT THE END OF JANUARY) IS COMING FOR THE END OF
FEBRUARY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 559 PM CST SUN FEB 16 2025
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS DURATION. ONLY
COMPLICATION IS A FEW POCKETS OF MVFR CEILINGS DRIFTING ACROSS
THE REGION THIS EVENING. AND SPOTS THAT HAVE SUCH CEILINGS WILL
ONLY EXPERIENCE THEM IN SHORT AND SPORADIC SPURTS, SO WITH
CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW ON TIMING THEM IN/OUT OF ANY GIVEN
TERMINAL, HAVE OPTED TO RUN WITH AN OPTIMISTIC TAKE AND KEPT
SITES VFR. MAINLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THIS EVENING WILL LIFT TO
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING FOLLOWED
BY THE MID-LEVEL DECKS RETURNING MONDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN NW
AROUND 10KTS THROUGHOUT.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 5-10KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND NW 5-10KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND NW 5KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST MONDAY
FOR BENTON-BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-
ISANTI-KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-MCLEOD-
MEEKER-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-POPE-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-
SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WASECA-
WATONWAN-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR ANOKA-BENTON-BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-
CHISAGO-DAKOTA-DOUGLAS-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-
HENNEPIN-ISANTI-KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-
MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-POPE-
RAMSEY-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-RICE-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-
STEARNS-STEELE-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WASECA-WASHINGTON-
WATONWAN-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST
MONDAY FOR ANOKA-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-
GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-MARTIN-RAMSEY-RICE-SCOTT-STEELE-
WASHINGTON.
WI...EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING FOR BARRON-CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-
POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CST
MONDAY FOR BARRON-CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-
POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.
DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...JPC
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