998
FXUS63 KMPX 171700
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1100 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 45 BELOW ZERO THIS MORNING AND
TOMORROW MORNING, WITH THE COLDEST CHILLS IN WEST-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. AIR TEMPERATURES WILL NOT REACH ABOVE ZERO UNTIL
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
- COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH MORNING WIND CHILLS
AS LOW AS 35 BELOW ZERO, WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH MID 30S TO LOW 40S POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY.
- NO SNOW OR ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1053 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
LATE MORNING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REVEAL WIND CHILL VALUES IN
THE -30 TO -40 RANGE ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA. WHILE SOME IMPROVEMENTS
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, WIND CHILLS OUT WEST WILL REMAIN
NEAR COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
UPCOMING PERIOD, PRIOR TO THE START OF THE NEXT EXTREME COLD
WARNING AT 9 PM. FOR THIS REASON, WE HAVE COLLABORATED WITH WFO
FSD/DMX TO ISSUE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS WESTERN
MINNESOTA TO "BRIDGE THE GAP" BETWEEN THE MOST SEVERE COLD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
CLEAR SKIES ARE PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOUTHEASTERN MINNESOTA THIS MORNING, WITH IR SATELLITE SHOWING
SIGNIFICANT SURFACE COLD CREEPING SOUTHWARDS AS AIR TEMPERATURES
HAVE COOLED INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE 20S
AND 30S BELOW ZERO AS OF 2AM. THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS THIS MORNING
IN WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA COULD DROP DOWN TO THE MID 40S BELOW ZERO,
WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT ONCE WE REACH DAYLIGHT. AIR TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE ZERO TODAY AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO SURGE
SOUTHWARDS AT GROUND LEVEL AS A BROAD OCCLUDED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
POSITIONED NORTH OF THE REGION WITH WIND CHILLS AT THEIR WARMEST
AROUND 20 BELOW ZERO. A BIT OF SUNSHINE DURING THE DAY COULD HELP IT
FEEL A BIT WARMER, OTHERWISE WE ARE IN FOR A COLD 48-60 HOUR STRETCH
AS WE DO NOT LOOK TO GET ABOVE ZERO FOR AIR TEMPERATURES UNTIL
WEDNESDAY ASIDE FROM A COUPLE OF HOURS IN WESTERN WISCONSIN ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
CREEP SOUTHWARDS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
DETERMINISTIC ECMWF SHOWING A 1050MB HIGH OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN DAKOTAS BY TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS BROAD ARCTIC
HIGH AND PERSISTENT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY SOURCE OF THE
COLD AIR, ALONGSIDE CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR EFFICIENT
COOLING. THIS MORNING AND TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST, WITH
A SMALL IMPROVEMENT FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE TEMEPRATURES START
RISING QUICKER AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.
AS THE ARCTIC HIGH WEAKENS AND MOVES SOUTHWARDS INTO THE PLAINS, THE
COLD AIR WILL LOOSEN ITS GRIP AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE AS
SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS BY THE WEEKEND SHOULD BRING IN A MORE MILD
AIR MASS, WITH 850MB TEMPS INCREASING QUITE A BIT BY THE WEEKEND.
ACTIVE WEATHER REMAINS ABSENT WITH A LACK OF ANY MEANINGFUL FORCING
MECHANISMS AS THE BROAD SUITE OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARDS
CHANCES FOR UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BEGINNING SUNDAY AND LINGERING INTO
NEXT WEEK. BY THE TIME WE REACH THE LONGER RANGES BEYOND 10 DAYS, WE
WILL BE INTO MARCH WITH OUR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ABOUT 4-5 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN MID FEBRUARY. WHILE WE CANNOT SAY FOR CERTAIN THIS IS
OUR LAST ARCTIC AIR OUTBREAK OF THE YEAR, IT BECOMES MORE AND MORE
LIKELY THE FARTHER WE GET INTO MARCH AS THE SUN BECOMES INCREASINGLY
STRONG IN TERMS OF ANGLE AND DURATION AFTER THE SPRING EQUINOX ON
MARCH 20TH.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 555 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING COULD YIELD TO SOME SCATTERED MVFR
LEVEL CIGS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. WIND NW 5-10KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND NW 5-10KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND NW 5KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BLUE
EARTH-BROWN-CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-KANDIYOHI-
LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-NICOLLET-POPE-
REDWOOD-RENVILLE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEELE-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-
WASECA-WATONWAN-YELLOW MEDICINE.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
TUESDAY FOR ANOKA-BENTON-BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-
CHISAGO-DAKOTA-DOUGLAS-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-
HENNEPIN-ISANTI-KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-
MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-POPE-
RAMSEY-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-RICE-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-
STEARNS-STEELE-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WASECA-WASHINGTON-
WATONWAN-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE.
WI...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
TUESDAY FOR BARRON-CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-
POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.
UPDATE...STRUS
DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
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