117
FXUS63 KMPX 172010
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
210 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS COLD CONTINUES, WITH WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS -45 TONIGHT.
AIR TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW ZERO THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.
- PROLONGED PERIOD OF BITTER COLD DROPS WIND CHILLS TO -35 TO
-45 WEDNESDAY MORNING. GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOLLOWS, WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S/40S FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
- NO SNOW OR ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 210 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
OVERVIEW...
POTENT ARCTIC AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY ~3 SIGMA
TEMPERATURE DEVIATION BELOW THE MEAN PER NAEFS CLIMATOLOGY
CONTINUES TO PLAGUE MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS. EXPANSIVE ~1050S
MB SURFACE HIGH IS SLOWLY BUILDING SOUTH TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER NORTH OF THE DAKOTAS. THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO FLOW SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY MEAN THE CONTINUATION OF DANGEROUS
COLD THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH INDICATIONS THAT
MORNING WIND CHILLS WILL APPROACH THE DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO
ALL THE WAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WE'VE CONTINUED THE TREND OF
RUNNING WITH THE 25TH PERCENTILE NBM FOR MORNING LOWS OVER THE
NEXT FEW MORNINGS, GIVEN THE COOLING EFFICIENCY OF TEMPERATURES
IN THE CURRENT REGIME.
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS WINTRY WEATHER ADVANCING EAST OUT OF
THE GREAT PLAINS THROUGH SOUTHERN IOWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH, GIVEN SUPPRESSION FROM THE
STRONG SURFACE HIGH. IN FACT, THE RADAR ACTIVITY REFERENCED ABOVE IS
THE BEGINNING OF A MORE IMPRESSIVE WINTER STORM SYSTEM THAT IS
PROGGED TO DIG THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH LATER THIS WEEK (IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVEMENT REFERENCED ABOVE). THE PRESENCE OF
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MEAN LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACTIVE WEATHER
LOCALLY THIS WEEK.
DANGEROUS COLD HEADLINES...
DESPITE SUNSHINE AND SOME WARMING, ALL LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING
SUB-ZERO EARLY AFTERNOON AIR TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILLS REMAIN AT
DANGEROUS VALUES, PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA WHERE
FROSTBITE REMAINS POSSIBLE IN AS LITTLE AS 10 MINUTES. WIND
CHILLS HAVE WARMED TO NEAR/ABOVE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA
ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA (INCLUDING THE TC METRO) AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN, SO THESE LOCATIONS ARE HEADLINE FREE AT THE MOMENT.
HOWEVER, MANY SURFACE OBS CONTINUE TO REVEAL WINDS CHILLS
BETWEEN -30 TO -35 ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA, WHERE A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES. AN EXTREME COLD WARNING GOES BACK
INTO EFFECT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AT 9 PM AND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 10 AM TOMORROW. THE COMBINATION OF AIR TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN -20 TO -30 AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL YIELD ANOTHER
ROUND OF WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS -45 TUESDAY MORNING.
IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT WE'LL NEED A SECONDARY ADVISORY FOLLOWING
THE EXPIRATION OF THE WARNING TOMORROW, AS GUIDANCE IS QUICKER TO
WARM THE WIND CHILLS ABOVE HEADLINE CRITERIA. HOWEVER, THE TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING PERIOD WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR
ANOTHER SET OF COLD WEATHER HEADLINES. AT THE VERY LEAST, A WIDESPREAD
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET, THOUGH THERE ARE QUESTIONS
WITH REGARDS TO HOW WIDESPREAD EXTREME COLD WARNING CRITERIA WILL
BE MET (MOST LIKELY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA). WE HAVE
HAVE ISSUED AN EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA TO ADDRESS THIS
POTENTIAL.
LOOKING AHEAD...
IT MAY NOT FEEL LIKE IT RIGHT NOW, BUT THERE IS AN
END TO THE ONGOING ARCTIC BLAST IN SIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY FRIDAY.
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL WORK IN
TANDEM WITH MORE EXPANSIVE THERMAL RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CONUS TO BEGIN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND. LATEST NBM FEATURES
HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS/LOW 20S FRIDAY, THE 30S ON SATURDAY,
AND INTO THE UPPER 30S/40S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A FEW AREAS MAY FLIRT WITH 50S ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK! EXPANSIVE RIDGING
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS WILL PUSH THE CLIPPER STORM
TRACK NORTH INTO SOUTHERN CANADA, WHICH RESULTS IN A GENERALLY
DRY FORECAST LOCALLY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. EXTENDED GUIDANCE
BRINGS A MORE PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT/INCREASED POPS INTO THE
PICTURE IN THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1102 AM CST MON FEB 17 2025
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES COULD GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED MVFR LEVEL CIGS
THIS AFTERNOON. A POCKET OF OVERCAST CIGS AROUND 1000-1700 FT
HAVE BEEN ATTEMPTING TO SLIDE SOUTH FROM NW MN THIS MORNING, BUT
ARE STRUGGLING TO MAKE TOO MUCH PROGRESS. NORTHWEST WINDS
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WIND NW 5-10KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND NW BCMG SW 5KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND SW 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BLUE
EARTH-BROWN-CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-KANDIYOHI-
LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-NICOLLET-POPE-
REDWOOD-RENVILLE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEELE-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-
WASECA-WATONWAN-YELLOW MEDICINE.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
TUESDAY FOR ANOKA-BENTON-BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-
CHISAGO-DAKOTA-DOUGLAS-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-
HENNEPIN-ISANTI-KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-
MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-POPE-
RAMSEY-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-RICE-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-
STEARNS-STEELE-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WASECA-WASHINGTON-
WATONWAN-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-FARIBAULT-
KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-NICOLLET-
POPE-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-
WATONWAN-YELLOW MEDICINE.
WI...EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
TUESDAY FOR BARRON-CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-
POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.
DISCUSSION...STRUS
AVIATION...BED
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page