252
FXUS63 KMPX 180456
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1056 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS COLD CONTINUES, WITH WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS -45
TONIGHT. AIR TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW ZERO THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
- PROLONGED PERIOD OF BITTER COLD DROPS WIND CHILLS TO -35 TO
-45 WEDNESDAY MORNING. GRADUAL WARMING TREND FOLLOWS, WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S/40S FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
- NO SNOW OR ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 210 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
OVERVIEW...
POTENT ARCTIC AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY ~3 SIGMA
TEMPERATURE DEVIATION BELOW THE MEAN PER NAEFS CLIMATOLOGY
CONTINUES TO PLAGUE MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS. EXPANSIVE ~1050S
MB SURFACE HIGH IS SLOWLY BUILDING SOUTH TOWARDS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER NORTH OF THE DAKOTAS. THE CORE OF THE
ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY MEAN THE
CONTINUATION OF DANGEROUS COLD THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING, WITH INDICATIONS THAT MORNING WIND CHILLS WILL APPROACH
THE DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ALL THE WAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. WE'VE CONTINUED THE TREND OF RUNNING WITH THE 25TH
PERCENTILE NBM FOR MORNING LOWS OVER THE NEXT FEW MORNINGS,
GIVEN THE COOLING EFFICIENCY OF TEMPERATURES IN THE CURRENT
REGIME.
REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS WINTRY WEATHER ADVANCING EAST OUT
OF THE GREAT PLAINS THROUGH SOUTHERN IOWA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH, GIVEN
SUPPRESSION FROM THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH. IN FACT, THE RADAR
ACTIVITY REFERENCED ABOVE IS THE BEGINNING OF A MORE IMPRESSIVE
WINTER STORM SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO DIG THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH
LATER THIS WEEK (IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVEMENT
REFERENCED ABOVE). THE PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MEAN
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ACTIVE WEATHER LOCALLY THIS WEEK.
DANGEROUS COLD HEADLINES...
DESPITE SUNSHINE AND SOME WARMING, ALL LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING
SUB-ZERO EARLY AFTERNOON AIR TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILLS REMAIN AT
DANGEROUS VALUES, PARTICULARLY ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA WHERE
FROSTBITE REMAINS POSSIBLE IN AS LITTLE AS 10 MINUTES. WIND
CHILLS HAVE WARMED TO NEAR/ABOVE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA
ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA (INCLUDING THE TC METRO) AND WESTERN
WISCONSIN, SO THESE LOCATIONS ARE HEADLINE FREE AT THE MOMENT.
HOWEVER, MANY SURFACE OBS CONTINUE TO REVEAL WINDS CHILLS
BETWEEN -30 TO -35 ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA, WHERE A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES. AN EXTREME COLD WARNING GOES BACK
INTO EFFECT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AT 9 PM AND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH 10 AM TOMORROW. THE COMBINATION OF AIR TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN -20 TO -30 AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL YIELD ANOTHER
ROUND OF WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS -45 TUESDAY MORNING.
IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT WE'LL NEED A SECONDARY ADVISORY
FOLLOWING THE EXPIRATION OF THE WARNING TOMORROW, AS GUIDANCE
IS QUICKER TO WARM THE WIND CHILLS ABOVE HEADLINE CRITERIA.
HOWEVER, THE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING PERIOD WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR ANOTHER SET OF COLD WEATHER HEADLINES.
AT THE VERY LEAST, A WIDESPREAD COLD WEATHER ADVISORY LOOKS LIKE
A GOOD BET, THOUGH THERE ARE QUESTIONS WITH REGARDS TO HOW
WIDESPREAD EXTREME COLD WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE MET (MOST
LIKELY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA). WE HAVE HAVE ISSUED AN
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL.
LOOKING AHEAD...
IT MAY NOT FEEL LIKE IT RIGHT NOW, BUT THERE IS AN END TO THE
ONGOING ARCTIC BLAST IN SIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK
SOUTH ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH WILL WORK IN TANDEM WITH MORE
EXPANSIVE THERMAL RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS TO BEGIN A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND. LATEST NBM FEATURES HIGHS IN THE UPPER
TEENS/LOW 20S FRIDAY, THE 30S ON SATURDAY, AND INTO THE UPPER
30S/40S FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
FEW AREAS MAY FLIRT WITH 50S ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK! EXPANSIVE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS WILL PUSH THE CLIPPER STORM TRACK NORTH INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA, WHICH RESULTS IN A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST LOCALLY
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. EXTENDED GUIDANCE BRINGS A MORE
PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT/INCREASED POPS INTO THE PICTURE IN THE
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CST MON FEB 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS DURATION. GENERALLY SKC
CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY MORNING, THEN
JUST PASSING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS FOR THE AFTERNOON-EVENING
HOURS. WINDS TO REMAIN NW THROUGHOUT, SPEEDS 5-7KTS OVERNIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, THEN PICKING UP TO AROUND 10KTS AGAIN
IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING OFF AGAIN AFTER SUNSET.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WIND NW 5-10KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND NW BCMG SW 5KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND SW 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR ANOKA-BENTON-
BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-DOUGLAS-
FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-KANABEC-
KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-
MILLE LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-POPE-RAMSEY-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-
RICE-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEELE-STEVENS-SWIFT-
TODD-WASECA-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CHIPPEWA-DOUGLAS-FARIBAULT-
KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-MARTIN-MCLEOD-MEEKER-NICOLLET-
POPE-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-
WATONWAN-YELLOW MEDICINE.
WI...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR BARRON-
CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.
DISCUSSION...STRUS
AVIATION...JPC
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