509
FXUS63 KMPX 181251 CCA
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
533 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS THIS MORNING FROM -35 TO -50 WITH AN
EXTREME COLD WARNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA UNTIL 10 AM.
TOMORROW MORNING WILL ALSO HAVE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS FROM -30
TO -45.
- WARMING TREND LATER THIS WEEK, WITH A CHANCE AT 40S BY SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.
- NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY MORNING, CLEAR SKIES AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
HAVE LED TO A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES WITH MUCH OF THE AREA
SITTING IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS TO 20S THIS MORNING. WIND CHILLS AS OF
2AM RANGE FROM 30 BELOW ZERO IN THE METRO AND WESTERN WISCONSIN TO
40 BELOW ZERO IN WESTERN AND WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA. WE STILL HAVE A
FEW HOURS TO GET EVEN COLDER BEFORE SUNRISE, AND OUR COLDEST CHILLS
ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER 40S BELOW ZERO IN WEST-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. IT WILL TAKE AWHILE FOR THE SUN TO WARM US UP DURING THE
DAY AND TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE ZERO DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS WIND CHILLS REMAIN IN
THE NEGATIVE TEENS AT THEIR WARMEST. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND STRONG
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT GROUND LEVEL TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL BOTH SLIDE SOUTHWARDS OVER THE NEXT 24-
36 HOURS, WITH ONE MORE EXTREMELY COLD MORNING TOMORROW AS CHILLS
ONCE AGAIN REACH -30 TO -45 ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH RESOLUTION AND
GLOBAL GUIDANCE MAINTAIN THE 1050-1055MB HIGH OVER THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY BEFORE FINALLY PUSHING IT OUT OF
THE REGION AS THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE MOVES EASTWARDS AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THE WEEKEND.
BY FRIDAY, WE BEGIN TO SEE THE PATTERN BEGIN TO SHIFT WITH A PACIFIC
AIRMASS BEGINNING TO MIGRATE OVER THE ROCKIES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LATER IN THE DAY. DESPITE WINDS TAKING A MORE WESTERLY
TRAJECTORY WITHIN THE BOTTOM HALF OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, IF WE TRACE THE ORIGIN OF THE AIR THAT
ARRIVES BY THE WEEKEND WE CAN SEE A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM THE COLD
AS 850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO ABOVE FREEZING BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH MIXED CLOUD COVER HOPEFULLY ALLOWING FOR ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MIXING TO PUSH NEAR TO ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS TREND
CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY WITH THE WARMER PACIFIC AIR CONTINUING TO
STREAM EASTWARDS FROM A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
US. LONG RANGE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S FOR HIGHS BEGINNING SUNDAY AND STRETCHING THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK
OF MARCH WITH A LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION BEARING
SYSTEMS. THE EPS MAINTAINS A SLIGHTLY WARMER TREND THAN THE GEFS/CFS
BUT OVERALL THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON A PROLONGED STRETCH OF WARMER
WEATHER NEXT WEEK. ONE THING TO NOTE IS THAT WHILE THIS STRETCH DOES
LOOK TO BE ABOVE NORMAL, EARLY MARCH AVERAGE HIGHS FOR THE TWIN
CITIES OF MID 30S MEANS WE ARE NOT TALKING SIGNIFICANT WARMTH, MORE
WITHIN A 5-10 DEGREE RANGE RATHER THAN SIGNIFICANTLY MORE THAN
THIS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 533 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
CLEAR SKIES AND NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KTS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
KMSP...NO CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...VFR. WIND NW 5-10KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND NW BCMG SW 5KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND SW 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ANOKA-
BENTON-BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CARVER-CHIPPEWA-CHISAGO-DAKOTA-
DOUGLAS-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-ISANTI-
KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-MCLEOD-
MEEKER-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-POPE-RAMSEY-REDWOOD-
RENVILLE-RICE-SCOTT-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEELE-
STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WASECA-WASHINGTON-WATONWAN-WRIGHT-
YELLOW MEDICINE.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR BENTON-BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CHIPPEWA-CHISAGO-
DOUGLAS-ISANTI-KANABEC-KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-MCLEOD-
MEEKER-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-NICOLLET-POPE-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-
SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WATONWAN-
WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR ANOKA-CARVER-DAKOTA-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-
GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-LE SUEUR-MARTIN-RAMSEY-RICE-SCOTT-STEELE-
WASECA-WASHINGTON.
WI...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BARRON-
CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-POLK-RUSK-ST. CROIX.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR BARRON-POLK.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
WEDNESDAY FOR CHIPPEWA-DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-RUSK-
ST. CROIX.
DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
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