354
FXUS63 KMPX 190449
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1049 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS FROM -30 TO -45 ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY
MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN MINNESOTA. AN EXTREME COLD
WARNING GOES INTO EFFECT TONIGHT UNTIL 10 AM WEDNESDAY.
- A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT TONIGHT FOR EASTERN
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN UNTIL 10 AM WEDNESDAY. WIND
CHILLS FROM -25 TO -35 ARE LIKELY.
- WARMING TREND LATER THIS WEEK, WITH A CHANCE AT 40S THIS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
- NO SNOW OR ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
A POTENT ARCTIC AIRMASS REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE HEART OF THE
CENTRAL US THIS AFTERNOON. THE CORE OF AN EXPANSIVE 1050 MB HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND EXPANDS OUTWARD OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN CONUS. THE CORE OF THE ARCTIC AIR WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS IN TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED
QUICKLY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS W MN TO SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN E MN & W WI WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
AREA THANKS TO THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE. FOR LOW TEMPERATURES OVER THE
NEXT FEW NIGHTS - I USED A BLEND OF NBM 25TH PERCENTILE WITH JUST A
TOUCH OF 50TH TO WARM US EVER SO SLIGHTLY IN THE CORE METRO & S MN.
EXTREME COLD WARNINGS & COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES GO INTO EFFECT
TONIGHT THROUGH 10AM THURSDAY MORNING TO ADDRESS THE BITTER COLD
TEMPERATURES & APPARENT TS.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND HAS BEGUN AS THE "WORST" OF THE COLD IS
TECHNICALLY BEHIND US. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE TEENS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT
LOWS REMAIN BELOW ZERO WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY NIGHT WITH VALUES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO TEENS BELOW ZERO. WE WILL MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY-LEVEL COLD FOR BOTH THURSDAY MORNING & FRIDAY
MORNING DESPITE THIS GRADUAL WARMING TREND. THE CORE OF OUR SURFACE
HIGH WILL BE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH BY THAT POINT. THIS PLACEMENT
ALLOWS SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW TO INCREASE AND CONTRIBUTE
TO A BRIEF OVERLAP BETWEEN MINIMUM LOW TEMPERATURES & WINDS THAT
SUPPORT COLDER WIND CHILLS. WE'LL KEEP OUR HEADLINES AS-IS WITH THE
FOCUS ON TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING AND ALLOW THE NEXT SHIFT TO
REASSESS.
THE WARM UP SHIFTS INTO HIGH GEAR FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. OUR ARCTIC HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER TO THE SE, ALLOWING WAA TO
REALLY RAMP UP. THIS WARM UP CAN BE VIEWED EASIER WITH THE PATTERN
ALOFT. THE UPSTREAM RIDGE & BLOCKING THAT HAS PUSHED THE COLD ARCTIC
AIR OUT OF THE ARCTIC CIRCLE AND INTO THE MID-LATITUDES WILL BREAK
DOWN. IT'LL GET REPLACED BY AN IMPRESSIVE PACIFIC JET EXTENSION
THAT'LL REPLACE THE COLD WITH A MILD PACIFIC AIRMASS. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING
TO JUST BELOW FREEZING FOR NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND.
CURRENT ENSEMBLES HIGHLIGHT THE "PEAK" WARM UP AS NEXT MONDAY WITH
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S BUT WE CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW LOCATIONS
HITTING 50 ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN SW MN. ANY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES APPEAR MINIMAL OVER THE NEXT WEEK AS WE REMAIN IN A
PRIMARILY DRY PATTERN REGARDLESS OF ARCTIC COLD OR PACIFIC WARMTH.
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE DOES GIVE US A FEW HINTS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY COME BACK TO CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES IN EARLY THROUGH MID
MARCH.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS DURATION. WINDS WILL RUN
NW IN THE 7-12KT RANGE. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AROUND 20K FEET
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY. GOING INTO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, A SWATH OF LOWER CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP OVER
EASTERN MN INTO WESTERN WI, SUCH THAT CEILINGS IN THE 040-060
RANGE ARE QUITE VIABLE. NOT EXPECTING MVFR CEILINGS AT THIS
POINT BUT THE POSSIBILITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR SEVERAL HOURS
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WIND NW 5-10KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND SW 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND SW 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR BENTON-BLUE
EARTH-BROWN-CHIPPEWA-CHISAGO-DOUGLAS-ISANTI-KANABEC-
KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-
NICOLLET-POPE-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-
STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WATONWAN-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR ANOKA-
CARVER-DAKOTA-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-LE
SUEUR-MARTIN-RAMSEY-RICE-SCOTT-STEELE-WASECA-WASHINGTON.
WI...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR BARRON-POLK.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR CHIPPEWA-
DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-RUSK-ST. CROIX.
DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...JPC
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page