310
FXUS63 KMPX 190854
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
254 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS LOW AS -40 IN WEST-
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND -30 IN THE METRO.
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING, WITH CHILLS
AS COLD AS -15 IN WESTERN WI TO -30 IN WESTERN MN.
- WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S INTO
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
IR SATELLITE SHOWS THE STORY AGAIN VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MORNING
WITH A BROAD AREA OF COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE COLDEST REGION CONTINUES TO BE WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TO
NORTHEASTERN MONTANA CENTERED UNDER THE 1050MB ARCTIC HIGH THAT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THERE IS A BIT OF LOW
LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WHICH HAS STALLED
TEMPERATURES FALLING LOWER THAN THEY ALREADY ARE, BUT WE HAVE CHILLS
RANGING FROM -25 TO -30 ALREADY SO WE ARE ALREADY QUITE COLD
ANYWAYS. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY, WE WILL WARM UP FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING
THE DAY DUE TO THE INCREASED SUN ANGLE FROM BEING IN MID TO LATE
FEBRUARY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEST-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. WE WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
TEENS BELOW ZERO IN SOUTHERN & WESTERN MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT WHILE THE
TWIN CITIES METRO AND WESTERN WI DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO INSTEAD. THIS SETS UP YET ANOTHER COLD WEATHER ADVISORY,
HOWEVER COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS WE SHOULD GENERALLY
SEE 10-15 DEGREE 'WARMER' WIND CHILLS.
AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE WEEKEND, WE CONTINUE TO SEE A WARMING TREND
PRESENT WITHIN MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AS THE ARCTIC HIGH WHICH
HAS LED TO SUCH COLD TEMPERATURES WEAKENS AND BEGINS TO MOVE
EASTWARDS TRAILING THE UPPER LEVEL OCCLUSION THAT WILL MOVE TOWARDS
HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL ALLOW OUR UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO FAVOR A
PACIFIC AIRMASS WITH ITS ORIGIN OFF THE NORTHWESTERN US COAST,
QUICKLY WARMING US UP BY THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE AT 40 BY SUNDAY
AND UPPER 30S TO MID 40S GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A BIT OF DISPARITY WITHIN THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLES
AS TO THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ONCE WE REACH THIS WARMER
STRETCH, WITH THE BEST CHANCE LOOKING TO BE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
ON WEDNESDAY. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S, THIS WOULD LIKELY FALL
AS RAIN GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST, HOWEVER BEING A WEEK OUT YET THE
TIMING COULD FLUCTUATE ENOUGH TO HAVE PRECIPITATION ARRIVING
OVERNIGHT WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE COLDER AND THUS YIELD SNOW OR
ANOTHER TYPE OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE ENSEMBLES AS WE REACH THE 7-10 DAY PERIOD ARE THE EPS/CFS KEEP
THINGS ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE GEFS WHICH FAVOR BRINGING
US BACK DOWN INTO THE MID 20S BY NEXT WEEKEND, AS WELL AS THE CFS
SHOWING A SLIGHTLY WETTER SIGNAL OVERALL ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.
UNTIL THESE DIFFERENCES ARE RESOLVED, EXPECT A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST ONCE WE GET THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CST TUE FEB 18 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS DURATION. WINDS WILL RUN
NW IN THE 7-12KT RANGE. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS AROUND 20K FEET
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY. GOING INTO
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, A SWATH OF LOWER CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP OVER
EASTERN MN INTO WESTERN WI, SUCH THAT CEILINGS IN THE 040-060
RANGE ARE QUITE VIABLE. NOT EXPECTING MVFR CEILINGS AT THIS
POINT BUT THE POSSIBILITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR SEVERAL HOURS
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. WIND NW 5-10KTS.
FRI...VFR. WIND SW 5-10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND SW 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BENTON-
BLUE EARTH-BROWN-CHIPPEWA-CHISAGO-DOUGLAS-ISANTI-KANABEC-
KANDIYOHI-LAC QUI PARLE-MCLEOD-MEEKER-MILLE LACS-MORRISON-
NICOLLET-POPE-REDWOOD-RENVILLE-SHERBURNE-SIBLEY-STEARNS-
STEVENS-SWIFT-TODD-WATONWAN-WRIGHT-YELLOW MEDICINE.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ANOKA-
CARVER-DAKOTA-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-GOODHUE-HENNEPIN-LE
SUEUR-MARTIN-RAMSEY-RICE-SCOTT-STEELE-WASECA-WASHINGTON.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR BLUE EARTH-BROWN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-MARTIN-
REDWOOD-STEELE-WASECA-WATONWAN.
WI...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BARRON-
POLK.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CHIPPEWA-
DUNN-EAU CLAIRE-PEPIN-PIERCE-RUSK-ST. CROIX.
DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...JPC
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