630
FXUS63 KMPX 191735
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1135 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS CONTINUE THIS MORNING AS LOW AS -40 IN
WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND -30 IN THE METRO.
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING, WITH
CHILLS AS COLD AS -15 IN WESTERN WI TO -30 IN WESTERN MN.
- WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S INTO
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
IR SATELLITE SHOWS THE STORY AGAIN VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MORNING
WITH A BROAD AREA OF COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE COLDEST REGION CONTINUES TO BE WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TO
NORTHEASTERN MONTANA CENTERED UNDER THE 1050MB ARCTIC HIGH THAT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THERE IS A BIT OF LOW
LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA WHICH HAS STALLED
TEMPERATURES FALLING LOWER THAN THEY ALREADY ARE, BUT WE HAVE CHILLS
RANGING FROM -25 TO -30 ALREADY SO WE ARE ALREADY QUITE COLD
ANYWAYS. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY, WE WILL WARM UP FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING
THE DAY DUE TO THE INCREASED SUN ANGLE FROM BEING IN MID TO LATE
FEBRUARY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEST-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. WE WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
TEENS BELOW ZERO IN SOUTHERN & WESTERN MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT WHILE THE
TWIN CITIES METRO AND WESTERN WI DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO INSTEAD. THIS SETS UP YET ANOTHER COLD WEATHER ADVISORY,
HOWEVER COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS WE SHOULD GENERALLY
SEE 10-15 DEGREE 'WARMER' WIND CHILLS.
AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE WEEKEND, WE CONTINUE TO SEE A WARMING TREND
PRESENT WITHIN MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AS THE ARCTIC HIGH WHICH
HAS LED TO SUCH COLD TEMPERATURES WEAKENS AND BEGINS TO MOVE
EASTWARDS TRAILING THE UPPER LEVEL OCCLUSION THAT WILL MOVE TOWARDS
HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL ALLOW OUR UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO FAVOR A
PACIFIC AIRMASS WITH ITS ORIGIN OFF THE NORTHWESTERN US COAST,
QUICKLY WARMING US UP BY THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE AT 40 BY SUNDAY
AND UPPER 30S TO MID 40S GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A BIT OF DISPARITY WITHIN THE VARIOUS ENSEMBLES
AS TO THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ONCE WE REACH THIS WARMER
STRETCH, WITH THE BEST CHANCE LOOKING TO BE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
ON WEDNESDAY. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S, THIS WOULD LIKELY FALL
AS RAIN GIVEN THE CURRENT FORECAST, HOWEVER BEING A WEEK OUT YET THE
TIMING COULD FLUCTUATE ENOUGH TO HAVE PRECIPITATION ARRIVING
OVERNIGHT WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE COLDER AND THUS YIELD SNOW OR
ANOTHER TYPE OF FROZEN PRECIPITATION. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE ENSEMBLES AS WE REACH THE 7-10 DAY PERIOD ARE THE EPS/CFS KEEP
THINGS ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE GEFS WHICH FAVOR BRINGING
US BACK DOWN INTO THE MID 20S BY NEXT WEEKEND, AS WELL AS THE CFS
SHOWING A SLIGHTLY WETTER SIGNAL OVERALL ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY.
UNTIL THESE DIFFERENCES ARE RESOLVED, EXPECT A LOW CONFIDENCE
FORECAST ONCE WE GET THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
VFR ACROSS ALL SEVEN TERMINALS TO OPEN THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
STRATUS ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA/CENTRAL WISCONSIN IS ROTATING
FROM EAST TO WEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPARTURE OF AN
UPPER-LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THIS MOTION, WE DO EXPECT VFR
CIGS BETWEEN 4-5K FT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE
STRATUS SINKS SOUTH. HOWEVER, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
PRESENCE IN CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS
WILL BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH -SHSN POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. WE HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 AT STC TO ADDRESS THIS
POTENTIAL SCENARIO. SATELLITE ALSO CAPTURES A POCKET OF MVFR
STRATUS MOVING WEST TOWARDS EAU, SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND AMD AS NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON.
KMSP...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN LOW VFR CEILINGS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING, THOUGH CURRENTLY APPEARS ANY DIP TO
MVFR CRITERIA WOULD BE SHORT LIVED.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND SW 5-15KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND SW 5-10KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND SW 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR BLUE EARTH-BROWN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-MARTIN-
REDWOOD-STEELE-WASECA-WATONWAN.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...STRUS
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