805
FXUS63 KMPX 192022
AFDMPX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
222 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COLD WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT.
COLDEST WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -25 TO -30 SOUTH AND WEST.
- WARMING TREND WILL PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE 30S THIS WEEKEND AND
THE 40S EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 222 PM CST WED FEB 19 2025
SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS REVEALS AN UPPER-LOW POSITIONED ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST THAT IS MOVING GENTLY TO THE SOUTHEAST. GOES-EAST
DAY-SNOW CHANNEL CAPTURES STRATUS ACROSS NORTHCENTRAL
MINNESOTA, GRADUALLY ROTATING FROM NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHWEST
AROUND THE UPPER-LOW. WE EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS
THESE FEATURES SLIDE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN HOW FAR SOUTHWEST THE CLOUD DECK WILL REACH.
ADDITIONALLY, SEVERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND A RECENT MPING
REPORT FROM MORRISON COUNTY INDICATE THAT FLURRIES ARE OCCURRING
WITHIN THE STRATUS TO THE NORTH. SHORT TERM RAP/HRRR FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SNOWFLAKES
IS ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA, WHERE THERE ARE BRIEF PERIODS OF
SATURATION WITHIN THE DGZ WORKING IN TANDEM WITH OMEGA FORCING
TIED TO THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER-LOW. WE HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS NORTH OF I-94 THIS AFTERNOON FROM
MORRISON (MN) TO RUSK (WI) TO ACCOUNT FOR BRIEF SNOW SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRATUS.
~1040S MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
REPRESENTS THE CORE OF THE CURRENT COLD OUTBREAK. FOR TONIGHT, THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRATUS WILL ACT AS A BLANKET ACROSS EASTERN
MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN, SUCH THAT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT GET
"AS COLD" AS THE PAST FEW MORNINGS. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD ANOTHER
SUB-ZERO NIGHT IS ON THE WAY, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM -5 TO -10
EAST TO -15 IN THE SOUTH AND WEST (WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER IS
FORECAST). LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH THESE VALUES
TO DROP WIND CHILLS TOWARDS -20 ACROSS EASTERN MINNESOTA AND
WESTERN WISCONSIN. COLDER WIND CHILLS, BETWEEN -25 TO -30, ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. 25 BELOW ZERO IS THE
TEMPERATURE THRESHOLD FOR A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA, SO OUR CURRENT HEADLINE FOR REDWOOD, BROWN,
BLUE EARTH, WASECA, STEELE, WATONWAN, MARTIN, FARIBAULT, &
FREEBORN COUNTIES REMAINS ON TRACK THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH FRIDAY,
WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS AND MUCH
NEEDED RELIEF FROM THE DANGEROUS COLD. TOMORROW'S HIGHS ARE FORECAST
TO REACH THE DOUBLE DIGITS, PRIOR TO ONE MORE NIGHT OF SUB-ZERO
TEMPERATURES HEADING INTO FRIDAY. CHANGES IN THE PATTERN BEGIN
FRIDAY, AS THE SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO TRANSPORT MILD PACIFIC AIR INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE MULTI-DAY WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN WITH
HIGHS NEAR 20 ON FRIDAY, NEAR THE FREEZING MARK SATURDAY, INTO
THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S ON SUNDAY, AND TOPPING OUT IN THE 40S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOCATIONS NEAR THE BUFFALO RIDGE ARE
FORECAST TO MAKE A RUN TOWARDS 50 DEGREES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
EASTWARD EXPANSION OF THE THERMAL RIDGING ALOFT WILL PUSH THE
CLIPPER TRACK TO THE EAST, SO MUCH OF THE NEXT 7-DAYS WILL
REMAIN DRY. FOR NOW, IT APPEARS THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL BE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY ACROSS FAR
EASTERN MINNESOTA/WESTERN WISCONSIN, AS A MORE POTENT CLIPPER
DIGS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH. THIS THROWS A BIT OF A WRENCH IN
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK, SO NOT SURPRISED TO SEE UPPER 30S FROM THE NBM
NORTH OF I-94.
ARE WE DONE WITH THE BRUTAL COLD WINTER AIR? WHILE WE MOST
LIKELY WILL NOT SEE ANOTHER ARCTIC OUTBREAK OF THIS INTENSITY
HEADING INTO MARCH, THERE ARE SIGNALS FOR THE NEXT DIP IN
TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE MONTH. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY +PNA,
WHICH SHOULD FAVOR WESTERN RIDGING AND IS CAPTURED ACROSS THE
LATEST ENSEMBLES. IN ADDITION, THE MJO IS FORECAST TO ENTER A
PHASE THAT WOULD FAVOR TROUGHING/COLDER AIRMASS TRENDS ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE FIRST PORTION OF MARCH. IT REMAINS
TO BE SEEN WHETHER OR NOT A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
UPPER MIDWEST IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE NEXT COOLDOWN, BUT THAT
WOULD PROBABLY BE THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW.
WE'RE REALLY STEPPING OUT INTO THE LONG TERM BY MID TO LATE
MARCH, HOWEVER WEEKLY TELECONNECTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS -PNA/+AO
TRENDS WHICH COULD MEAN MILD AIR MOVING IN BY MID-MARCH. WITH
ANY LONG RANGE FORECAST THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY, BUT THE
VARIOUS TELECONNECTIONS PROVIDE A LEAST A GLIMPSE INTO WHERE
TEMPERATURE TRENDS MAY BE HEADING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST WED FEB 19 2025
VFR ACROSS ALL SEVEN TERMINALS TO OPEN THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
STRATUS ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA/CENTRAL WISCONSIN IS ROTATING
FROM EAST TO WEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPARTURE OF AN
UPPER-LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST. GIVEN THIS MOTION, WE DO EXPECT VFR
CIGS BETWEEN 4-5K FT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE
STRATUS SINKS SOUTH. HOWEVER, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
PRESENCE IN CIGS LOWERING TO MVFR. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS
WILL BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH -SHSN POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. WE HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 AT STC TO ADDRESS THIS
POTENTIAL SCENARIO. SATELLITE ALSO CAPTURES A POCKET OF MVFR
STRATUS MOVING WEST TOWARDS EAU, SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND AMD AS NECESSARY THIS AFTERNOON.
KMSP...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN LOW VFR CEILINGS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING, THOUGH CURRENTLY APPEARS ANY DIP TO
MVFR CRITERIA WOULD BE SHORT LIVED.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WIND SW 5-15KTS.
SAT...VFR. WIND SW 5-10KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND SW 5-10KTS.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
THURSDAY FOR BLUE EARTH-BROWN-FARIBAULT-FREEBORN-MARTIN-
REDWOOD-STEELE-WASECA-WATONWAN.
WI...NONE.
DISCUSSION...STRUS
AVIATION...STRUS
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